Luis Garcia

Garcia's 2023 season was almost as quickly over as it began. The righty got off to a decent start with 31 strikeouts in 27 innings winning 2 of his first 6 decisions before he joined the long and distinguished list of elbow injuries last season. Garcia had his TJ surgery on May 19th which means we likely will not see him until the late stages of 2024, It is unfortunate as Garcia is a rather fascinating pitcher given his cutter is one of the toughest pitches in baseball on opposing hitters and hit has generated swings and misses over 40% of the time since he ramped up his usage of the pitch in 2021. Like most pitchers in this state, Garcia is an interesting end-game selection in keeper leagues for managers looking to play the fantasy long game, but should otherwise be an afterthought for reset leagues this season.

Garcia registered his second straight solid season with nearly identical surface stats. His WHIP was a tad lower due to a small dip in walk rate and a fortunate .260 BABIP. However, Garcia's ERA inched up as a result of a few more homers and a drop in strikeout rate. His xFIP and SIERA were almost the same in both seasons, suggesting the small differences were variance. There was some hope the Astros would tweak Garcia's five-pitch mix to help him achieve the next level. They still may, but at least last season Garcia's arsenal remained unchanged, with his cutter and slider doing most of the heavy lifting. Still just 26-years-old, there is time for Garcia to take the next step, even if it's just upping the 28 starts he's registered each of the past two seasons and pitching a little deeper, adding some frames onto last season's career high 157.1. The mid rotation floor is stable, with the potential of more.

Garcia's first full season in the majors copped him second place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Houston did a good job limiting his innings by delaying his debut and giving him extended rest on a handful of occasions. Missing most of the spring on COVID-19 protocol helped the cause early. Garcia tweaked his pitch mix to feature more cutters while his control improvement was buoyed by better location of his four-seam fastball. He employs a five-pitch mix and pitches for an organization adept at adjusting to maximize effectiveness, so there is a good chance Garcia continues to improve. Garcia's flyball rate is above average, but in his case it's beneficial with so many power-suppressing parks in the AL West and his solid K-BB% to minimize traffic. Assuming the Astros loosen the reins a bit, Garcia has a chance to be a fantasy rotation anchor.

The 24-year-old Venezuelan made his big-league debut last season and didn't look out of place despite never having pitched above High-A. Garcia's fastball has gained velocity since signing in 2017 and averaged 94 mph last season, with the kind of spin rate you'd expect from an Astros hurler, and minor-league reports from 2019 suggest he's capable of even more heat. He leaned on a changeup as his primary offspeed offering against lefties and a slider/cutter combo against righties, mixing in an occasional curveball, and the depth of his arsenal bodes well for his chances of starting down the road as opposed to winding up in the bullpen. His short-arm delivery might suggest otherwise, but the Astros have every incentive to keep developing him as a rotation option, with Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers both free agents after this year.

Among MiLB pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, Garcia ranked first in K% (38.1) and fourth in K-BB% (26.8). He was a bit of an unknown coming into the year, and while his performance was loud in 2019, he remains under the radar. Garcia signed as a 20-year-old for just $20,000 out of Venezuela in 2017. He has added fastball velocity each year, with his heater sitting in the mid-90s in 2019. His short arm action, shaky third-pitch changeup and 12.4 BB% at High-A lead many evaluators to peg him for a relief role, but he should continue developing as a starter as long as the results are promising. This is not a pop-up arm getting by solely on deception or one great offspeed pitch. Garcia has has a couple plus or better pitches and held lefties and righties to a sub-.600 OPS. It's possible he could take another step forward with his secondaries and his command this year.