Daulton Varsho

28-Year-Old OutfielderOF

Toronto Blue Jays

Out

Injury Shoulder

Est. Return 4/15/2025

2024 Stats

AVG

.214

RBI

2025 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Varsho's 2024 season was not the step forward many hoped for as he settled in for his second season north of the border. Varsho continued his stellar defensive play in the outfield, but his offensive production was once again below average. He was a problem in both standard as well as OBP leagues as his extreme pull hitting and high volume of flyballs does not help batting average unless those batted balls are off or over the fence. Varsho was playing through shoulder troubles for an indeterminate amount of time and eventually shut his season down to have rotator cuff surgery on his right shoulder which puts the start of his 2025 season at risk. That right shoulder is his front shoulder for hitting and injuries to the front shoulder prevent the necessary extension to drive the baseball. He had 11 homers in mid June but hit just 7 more the rest of the summer. Varsho's defense should help insulate his playing time once he is fully recovered, but something needs to change with in his profile because he is simply not making the necessary quality of contact to avoid hitting in the bottom third of the lineup. It is telling his xBA against all pitch groupings in 2024 was below .200 and is the third consecutive season in which his average against fastballs has declined. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws R

40 Man No

Height 5'10"

Weight 205

DOB 7/2/1996

Born Marshfield, WI

College Milwaukee

Drafted 2017 ARI

Could miss Opening Day

OFToronto Blue Jays

Shoulder

December 3, 2024

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said Tuesday that expecting Varsho (shoulder) to be ready for Opening Day "could be unrealistic," Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.

ANALYSIS
Atkins noted that Varsho isn't behind schedule in his recovery after undergoing surgery on his right shoulder in late September. However, manager John Schneider's original prediction of Varsho being close to full participation for the start of spring training no longer seems likely. A clearer picture regarding the 28-year-old's timeline will emerge as the new season approaches.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+4%

OPS vs RHP

2024

+21%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+9%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+45%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.686	350	38	4	31	10	.264	.313	.373
Since 2022vs Right	.713	1334	179	61	162	32	.213	.288	.424
2024vs Left	.813	104	19	3	11	5	.287	.356	.457
2024vs Right	.671	409	54	15	47	5	.195	.277	.395
2023vs Left	.722	117	11	0	7	3	.292	.345	.377
2023vs Right	.662	463	54	20	54	13	.202	.270	.392
2022vs Left	.553	129	8	1	13	2	.221	.250	.303
2022vs Right	.801	462	71	26	61	14	.240	.317	.484
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+10%

OPS on Road

2024

+12%

OPS at Home

2023

+32%

OPS on Road

2022

+13%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.671	809	106	29	89	15	.209	.282	.389
Since 2022Away	.740	875	111	36	104	27	.237	.304	.436
2024Home	.741	257	42	10	34	3	.225	.300	.442
2024Away	.659	256	31	8	24	7	.202	.286	.373
2023Home	.576	272	29	8	23	6	.181	.254	.323
2023Away	.761	308	36	12	38	10	.254	.313	.448
2022Home	.698	280	35	11	32	6	.221	.293	.406
2022Away	.786	311	44	16	42	10	.248	.311	.475
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Stat Review

How does Daulton Varsho compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.35

BB Rate

9.4%

K Rate

26.7%

BABIP

.262

ISO

.194

AVG

.214

OBP

.293

SLG

.407

OPS

.700

wOBA

.308

Exit Velocity

86.1 mph

Hard Hit Rate

29.6%

Barrels/PA

3.9%

Expected BA

.186

Expected SLG

.316

Sprint Speed

24.5 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

32.2%

Line Drive %

15.0%

Fly Ball %

52.9%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Daulton Varsho Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Blue Jays Depth Chart

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

Varsho, like many other Jays, did not get the expected offensive bump to his numbers when the club reconfigured Rogers Centre. In fact, Varsho's numbers backslid in his first season with the club from what he did with Arizona the previous season. His season was weird in that he hit all 20 of his homers off righties, but hit just .202 against them while the lefty hit .292 against fellow southpaws. That means 53 of his last 54 homers have come against righties but his batting average has been better against lefties. His heavy pull approach to batted balls was not saved by the adjustments to the shifting rules and his increasing flyball rate did not help those matters either. Varsho's fantasy value takes the additional hit this season of him losing that sweet catcher eligibility he has possessed the last couple of seasons which has inflated his draft day value. This profile goes from an above-average catching option to a below average outfield option on draft day.

On the strength of 27 homers and 16 steals, Varsho finished as the No. 2 catcher in 5x5 roto leagues last season. His .235 average dragged him behind the Phillies' JT Realmuto, but regardless it was an incredibly impressive campaign, and most importantly for our purposes, he maintains catcher eligibility entering 2023 (31 appearances, 18 starts behind the plate). There is some frigid blue on his Statcast page, so perhaps he will continue to struggle to hit for average, but the power-speed combination from the catcher position makes Varsho a valuable asset in the rotisserie game. Being traded to the Blue Jays should only benefit Varsho's production, as the better lineup around him should only increase his chances for runs and RBI. Rogers Centre is also slightly more friendly to hitters compared to Chase Field in Arizona. As good of a young player as he is, those playing in one-catcher leagues and/or points leagues should beware not to overrate Varsho based on where he ranks on two-catcher, roto cheat sheets.

Varsho finished the season with a modest .246/.318/.437 line, but it's his 290/.349/.530 mark with five steals in five tries after the break that has everyone's attention. Well, that and catcher eligibility with the defensive chops to play the outfield. Last season, Varsho squatted 41 times while he shagged flies in 49. As a hitter, Varsho combined good plate skills (21.3 K% and 9.5 BB%) with 84th percentile sprint speed. After registering a 90.3 mph average exit velocity on flyballs over the first half, Varsho muscled it up to 93.1 mph after the break. With Carson Kelly handling the bulk of backstop duties, Varsho will be the primary backup. However, there are pathways to playing time in center and right field. Even if he only plays four or five times a week, Varsho has the potential to be a top-5 fantasy catcher with five-category potential, and he's being drafted as such.

Varsho debuted with a disappointing .188/.287/.366 line across 115 PA in 2020. However, that has done little to dim his shine, and that's because Varsho brings to the table a unique combination of skills for a player who was primarily a catcher throughout his time in the minor leagues and is still catcher-eligible in most fantasy leagues (10 appearances in 2020). Most notably, Varsho can run with 86th percentile sprint speed which he is not afraid to use on the basepaths. He stole 40 bases in the minors from 2018-19 (188 games) and was 3-for-4 on steal attempts in 2020. Varsho also has legitimate power, even if that was missing in his first taste of the majors. Still only 24, Varsho is not going to be the primary catcher in Arizona in 2021, but he can move around and even play center field capably. Expect the team to take advantage of that versatility and get Varsho into the lineup more often than not.

The dream of a legitimate five-category catcher is alive and well with Varsho, who has 30 home runs and 40 steals (on 48 attempts) in 191 games over the past two seasons. At 5-foot-10, 190 pounds, he does not look like a candidate for that kind of production, but he is a 55-grade runner with great instincts on the bases. His plus hit tool is what will get him to the majors -- he uses the whole field and rarely strikes out. Behind the plate, he is a good receiver, but his arm is below average for the position. Varsho has seen reps in the outfield, and is unlikely to be a full-time catcher at the highest level, but could get enough starts there to retain eligibility in most formats. He tore an ankle ligament playing in Japan this offseason and may not be ready for the start of spring training. Varsho will spend at least a couple months at Triple-A and could make his MLB debut this summer.

One of the most unique catching prospects in recent memory, Varsho could steal 20-plus bases while playing in the field on days he does not catch. Despite his stocky 5-foot-10, 190-pound build, he is a good athlete and above-average runner (34-for-43 on SB attempts in 151 career games, including the Arizona Fall League). His 31.5 IFFB% was the sixth-worst mark in the Cal League and his 50.9 Pull% was the 10th highest mark -- indicators that suggest he may struggle to hit much better than .250 in the big leagues. A broken hand cost him six weeks in the middle of the season, but he made up for lost time by going to the AFL, where he logged an impressive 14:12 K:BB in 18 games. Evaluators have speculated that Varsho could handle second base and the outfield in addition to catching, but Arizona has understandably kept him behind the dish for now. It is possible he could develop into a 20/20 catcher, but his home run output may fall short of that.

Varsho was selected from a small school in the Midwest (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) with the No. 68 overall pick in last year's draft, and while questions about his defense behind the plate remain, his bat stole the show in his pro debut. He was the best hitter in the Northwest League (150 wRC+) and belted seven home runs -- seven more than older teammate Pavin Smith, who was selected with the seventh overall pick in the same draft. At 5-foot-10 and with a fringe-average arm, Varsho may not stick at catcher, but unlike most catching prospects, his above-average speed allows him to profile in left field and perhaps even at second base. His bat might even be special enough that he is moved out from behind the plate strictly to maximize his offensive upside, a la Bryce Harper and Wil Myers. Varsho has an excellent feel at the plate, striking out just 14.2 percent of the time (sixth best in the NWL). He has 20-20 potential and has the potential to move very quickly, especially if he switches positions.

More Fantasy News

May be available for start of spring

OFToronto Blue Jays

Shoulder

September 25, 2024

Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Wednesday that Varsho (shoulder) is expected to be close to a full participant for the start of spring training, Scott Mitchell of TSN.ca reports.

ANALYSIS
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Moved to 60-day IL

OFToronto Blue Jays

Shoulder

September 24, 2024

The Blue Jays transferred Varsho (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.

ANALYSIS
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Surgery completed

OFToronto Blue Jays

Shoulder

September 23, 2024

Blue Jays manager John Schneider confirmed that Varsho (shoulder) underwent right rotator cuff surgery Monday, Scott Mitchell of TSN.ca reports.

ANALYSIS
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Headed for shoulder surgery

OFToronto Blue Jays

Shoulder

September 17, 2024

Varsho, who was placed on the 10-day injured list due to a shoulder strain Tuesday, will undergo surgery on his rotator cuff as soon as possible, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.

ANALYSIS
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Out with shoulder strain

OFToronto Blue Jays

Shoulder

September 17, 2024

The Blue Jays placed Varsho on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to Sept. 14, due to a right shoulder strain.

ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Getting catching reps

OFToronto Blue Jays

September 14, 2023

Varsho said he's done some catching work since Danny Jansen went down with a fractured finger in early September, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca.

ANALYSIS
The outfielder caught 72 games for Arizona between 2021 and 2022 but has yet to work behind the plate for Toronto this season, though that could change down the stretch with Jansen out for the regular season after undergoing surgery. The Blue Jays have Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman on the roster to handle the catching duties, but Varsho could provide some flexibility as a tertiary option. Varsho's first season with the Blue Jays has been a struggle, as he has a .652 OPS through 144 games, and he's currently mired in a 2-for-24 slump.

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