Dansby Swanson

Fresh off signing a seven-year, $177 million contract with the Cubs last offseason, Swanson underwhelmed at the plate in 2023 with a .744 OPS, which was his lowest mark since 2018. He still eclipsed 20 homers and 80 RBI for the third straight year, but his nine stolen bases were only half his total from 2022 despite the rule changes in favor of base stealers. He spent some rare time on the injured list with a heel issue, which is the first time he's missed more than two games in a season since 2019. Swanson provided elite defense at shortstop, as his 18 DRS led the league. He also cut his strikeout rate two points to 24.1 percent and improved his walk rate over three points to 10.5 percent, though his hard-hit rate dropped below 40 percent for the first time in five seasons. Now entering his age-30 campaign, Swanson is a safe option for another productive campaign in 2024 and is a decent bet for a minor rebound.

Swanson has developed into one of the most durable and reliable players in the league, let alone at shortstop. Swanson and former teammate Matt Olson were the only players to appear in all 162 games. In fact, Swanson has missed only two games since 2020. Swanson's skills are stable and mostly solid, though a 26 percent strikeout rate drains his batting average below the elite at the position. However, Swanson has at least 25 homers each of the past two seasons and doubled his stolen base output to 18. He's in the range of players likely to benefit from the new rules, so 20 bags are plausible. Swanson's defense has been inconsistent, with last season's ranking as above average. Swanson is a classic compiler, exhibiting solid but not elite skills, buoyed by volume. If he hits near the top of the order, Swanson has top-five shortstop potential. Beware, after three straight solid seasons from Swanson, his price is on the rise. Playing half his games at Wrigley Field shouldn't significantly affect his production after he signed with the Cubs, as the venue is mostly neutral in park factors.

Swanson has turned into a nice fallback option at shortstop if a manager misses out on the elite bats. His fantasy value has slowly increased along with his power (.092 ISO to .157 to .172 to .190 to .201). He really turned it on in 2020 when he started all 60 games and continued the iron man streak in 2021 by starting 160 games. That said, it's disappointing to see neither his runs nor RBI over 90. The reason was that he was buried in the bottom half of the Atlanta lineup with only 47 plate appearances coming from the top four lineup spots. Besides the lack of counting stats, it's tough to find a major hole in his game with plate discipline staying constant and his steadily increasing power around double-digit steals.

The 2015 No. 1 overall pick had been steadily improving at the plate and took another step forward in 2020, posting career-best numbers in the triple-slash categories. His added rate power came at the expense of some contact; after his K-rate hung around 22% (and hardly budged) through his first four MLB seasons, Swanson's strikeout rate ticked up to 26.9%. Whether it was just variance or a conscious tradeoff, it worked, and Swanson also seemed to find his knack on the basepaths in 2020. Swanson used his 90th percentile sprint speed to go a perfect 5-for-5 stealing bases after he was caught five times in 15 attempts the season prior. Now the question is: is there yet another level or is this it? Swanson has developed into a good player on both sides of the ball but has to plateau eventually. The batted-ball numbers don't point to much room for additional growth.

Curiously, Swanson's usually reliable defense took a step back last season. Meanwhile, his offense improved. Swanson set new personal bests with 17 homers, 77 runs and 65 RBI while tying 2018's career-high 10 swipes. Even so, Swanson's production remained below average at his position. His plate skills were like the previous season, but he took a different path to get there. Swanson was more aggressive in the zone while being more selective. His strikeout and walk rates didn't change but his hard-hit rate increased eight points, buoyed by an uptick of three mph in average exit velocity. Swanson hit second in over half his games after mostly occupying the eight hole previously. There's no guarantee he remains there this season, but if he does the extra counting stats will help. Shortstop is loaded but with the improved approach, Swanson is mixed-league worthy, albeit it with a low ceiling.

Let's be honest: Swanson is not on the Atlanta roster for his bat. He is on it because he is an outstanding defensive shortstop that just so happens to do a little hitting. Rafael Belliard he is not, but he is also not Jeff Kent. Swanson pulls a lot of his batted balls, and hits more grounders than flyballs. That, coupled with his below-average strikeout rate, holds down his batting average. It was cute when he was a rookie and was putting up a high BABIP as the league figured out how to pitch him. The book is out on him now, and he's hit .235 over his last 1,000 plate appearances. The upside is that he can run, and will steal bags when he gets on base and the base in front of him is unoccupied. You can still see him developing a bit more power and potentially driving up his run production so he is not stuck in the bottom third of the lineup. He'll need that to happen to overcome the effect his low average has on your overall stats.

Swanson fared well in his 2016 debut, but took two steps back last season, providing a cautionary tale for assumptions about prospects. He hit well below the Mendoza Line over the first two months of the season and did not improve enough in subsequent weeks to avoid a demotion to Triple-A. While Swanson was better following his return, posting a 0.67 BB/K and .360 OBP over his final 49 games, he did not homer in that span and was only successful on one of four stolen-base attempts. Too often we in the industry tend to assume a prospect with Swanson's pedigree will have a straight line to major-league success, but that path is often filled with curves and potholes, and sometimes players simply don't reach the desired destination. Swanson may figure it out, but the new park in Atlanta is less favorable for right-handed power, and Swanson has modest pop to begin with (29.3 hard-hit percentage, 29.4 flyball percentage last season).

Swanson is who we thought he was. Or at least, he is who everyone other than Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa thought he was. A polished shortstop with no weaknesses and "the good face," Swanson's best tools (hit and field) grade out as plus, while his worst tools (power and speed) grade out as average. That's a recipe for a future All-Star and No. 2 hitter in a quality big league lineup. His numbers at High-A were gaudy enough for him to be promoted to Double-A after just 21 games, and he spent most of the summer posting a 117 wRC+ across 84 games in the Southern League. He skipped Triple-A altogether, making his big league debut in mid-August and finished one at-bat shy of losing his prospect status. The Braves officially chose Swanson over fellow prospect Ozzie Albies as the shortstop of the future, with Albies pegged for second base. Swanson should be an across-the-board contributor in his first full season, with the potential to be a major asset in runs and batting average.

The No. 1 overall pick of the 2015 draft, Swanson went from leading his Vanderbilt team to the College World Series in June to debuting with short-season Hillsboro of the Northwest League in August. Swanson, who missed time with a concussion after getting hit in the head by a pitch in instructs, was only able to play in 22 games for the Hops, hitting .289 with one home run. He also tallied seven doubles, three triples and a tidy 14:14 K:BB. He should be a good, not great, defensive shortstop who bats for a high average with 15-20 homers, while hitting first or second in a big league lineup during his peak years. Swanson likely won’t help fantasy teams in 2016, but dynasty league owners could see him as early as 2017, as he has the polish and makeup to move quickly. The key piece in the offseason trade that sent Shelby Miller to Arizona, Swanson is unquestionably the Braves' No. 1 prospect.