Carson Kelly

After getting released by Arizona during the 2023 season, Kelly came over to Detroit and enjoyed limited offensive success in a reserve role. Across 19 games with the Tigers, the catcher batted just .173 with a .271 on-base percentage. Kelly has never been much of an offensive threat during his career with just a .221 batting average over eight MLB seasons. The 29-year-old has at least displayed some power in the past, as he recorded 13 home runs in 98 games for the Diamondbacks back in 2021. Kelly had a career-high 18 long balls for Arizona in 2019. However, heading into 2024, the veteran seems unlikely to play enough to make much of a fantasy impact. Jake Rogers is entrenched as the top backstop in Detroit, making it likely that Kelly sees a similar workload to last year, when he appeared in 52 games. It's possible that Kelly sees more playing time if Rogers gets hurt, but even in that case, the former may not be a great fantasy target if he's unable to produce at the plate.

Kelly once again served as Arizona's primary backstop in 2022, but he had a disappointing offensive campaign .211/.282/.343 slash line, seven home runs and 35 RBI in 104 games. He was still a plus defender but struggled to square up the ball, as evidenced by his 5.2 percent barrel rate. Kelly produced an .826 OPS in 2019 during his first season with the Diamondbacks, but he's been inconsistent at the plate over the past few years. Kelly appeared primed to open 2023 as Arizona's starting backstop once again, but that was before the organization acquired arguably the best catching prospect in baseball, Gabriel Moreno, from Toronto for Daulton Varsho. The pair could split playing time early in 2023, but in practice Kelly should operate as the Diamondbacks' secondary catcher. Still, he should see his fair share of starts with Moreno set for his first full season in the majors.

Kelly is a fine catcher. He has hit for about a .240 average with 15 homers over the past three seasons. While he didn't walk much in 2020 (4.7 BB%), he has a career 10.8 BB% that helps in OBP and points leagues. He's been consistent over the years, so it's tough to find any downside or upside. In June, he was hit in the wrist and missed about six weeks. He had a .845 OPS before the injury and a .660 OPS after it, with most of his struggles coming from a loss of power. It's going to be about impossible for a catcher to not get banged up. He's probably not rosterable in one-catcher leagues, except in those that allow you to stream at Colorado. In all two-catcher leagues, he should be on some team, but don't spend more than a buck or two or an endgame pick on him.

Kelly looked like a solid mid-tier catcher last winter after hitting .248/.348/.478 with 18 homers in his first full season the year prior, but those who bought in expecting a repeat wound up quite disappointed. In 39 games, his slash line dipped to just .221/.264/.385 as he hit a modest five homers. While it's true that his good year was much longer than his bad one, his underlying numbers suggest his struggles were more a result of poor performance than small-sample misfortune. His K% rose slightly from 21.6 to 22.5 as his BB% cratered from 13.2 to 4.7. When he did make contact, it was significantly worse than in 2019, as his average exit velocity fell from 89.0 to 86.3 mph. As a decent defender, he'll only need a small step forward at the plate to be a solid starter in 2021, but he only projected as an average starter as a prospect, so it's quite likely he remains fine but fairly forgettable going forward.

Being shipped to Arizona in the trade for Paul Goldschmidt was a major blessing for Kelly, as he blossomed when finally out of Yadier Molina's shadow in St. Louis. Kelly received his first extended playing time in his age-25 season and delivered 18 home runs in 365 plate appearances (85 starts). He was solid defensively and his framing graded out exceptionally well. He had a 13.2 BB%, .232 ISO and a hard-hit rate in the 58th percentile. Manager Torey Lovullo utilized a heavy rotation behind the plate for a good chunk of the season, but Kelly was clearly the top choice at the end of the day and finished with some of the best offensive rate stats among catchers (his 108 wRC+ was identical to J.T. Realmuto's mark). Alex Avila -- who received 49 starts at catcher last season -- is headed for free agency, and while Avila could return, Kelly sets up to see an even heavier workload in 2020 regardless.

A miserable spring took Kelly out of the conversation for an Opening Day roster spot with the Cardinals. Opportunity knocked in May when Yadier Molina hit the disabled list, but Kelly made it less than two weeks before he landed on the DL with an injury of his own (hamstring). Kelly was optioned shortly after being activated and remained in the minors until September, ultimately logging a mere 10 at-bats for the big club over the final month as St. Louis made a last-gasp effort at a playoff spot. At Triple-A, Kelly walked as many times as he struck out in 349 PA and roped line drives at an above-average 22.9% clip. Now that he's out from Molina's shadow after being traded in the Paul Goldschmidt deal, Kelly should finally get an extended opportunity to show what he can do against big-league pitching as Arizona's primary backstop. The power is middling, but Kelly is very much in the second catcher mix given his contact skills and expected role.

Catching prospects should essentially be considered guilty of being replacement-level fantasy options until proven innocent. Kelly was seen by almost every outlet as one of the top catching prospects in baseball entering the 2017 season. We all knew he would find it hard to get consistent playing time behind Yadier Molina on the organizational depth chart, but the idea of a big-league-ready catcher who could hit for a decent average with some pop was appealing, even in limited at-bats. Not only was Kelly held down at Triple-A for much of the season so that he could get regular at-bats, but he now has a career .171 average with zero home runs in 89 MLB plate appearances. He hit well again at Triple-A, but finds himself in the same situation as a year ago -- behind a well-paid legend on a contender. The Cardinals also have another catching prospect in Andrew Knizner who is getting close to the majors and may be a better version of Kelly. At least this season Kelly figures to spend the whole year in the majors.

After performing as an above league-average hitter at Double-A (115 wRC+) and essentially a league-average hitter at Triple-A (98 wRC+), Kelly earned his first trip to the majors when rosters expanded in September. During his time with the big club, he went 2-for-14 across 10 games. He was also extremely impressive in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .286/.387/.455 with three home runs and a 4:13 K:BB in 94 plate appearances. While it was exciting to see Kelly climb his way through the ranks of the Cardinals organization, Yadier Molina remains the unquestioned starting catcher in St. Louis. Kelly will compete with veteran Eric Fryer for the backup catcher spot in camp and may return to Memphis in order to continue to see the workload of a No. 1 catcher. If Molina were to get hurt, however, Kelly would figure to see the bulk of the action behind the dish and would become relevant in all two-catcher formats.

In his first full season as a catching prospect, Kelly struggled to make an impact with Low-A Peoria. Kelly still holds a ton of potential as he's been playing professionally since he was 17. He's managed in increase his walk rate and decrease his strikeout rate each year since turning pro. Learning a new position is never easy, and catcher may be the most difficult so some growing pains are to be expected. Still the Cardinals brass along with Mike Matheny are impressed with his rapid improvement. Kelly will work with the Cardinals this winter to help improve his workout strategy. He's still one of the team's better prospects, but is likely several years away from helping in St. Louis.