Bryce Elder

Bryce Elder

26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Atlanta Braves
2026 Stats
W-L
0-0
ERA
0.00
WHIP
0.00
K
0
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K
SV
Unlock Our Projections
2026 Fantasy Outlook
Elder made just 10 big-league starts in 2024 due to a bloated 6.52 ERA, and he wasn't much better over 28 starts last season with a 5.30 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 131:51 K:BB across 156.1 innings. However, the right-hander did close the campaign on a high note with a 2.82 ERA in his last seven outings. A 4.67 xERA and 4.54 FIP indicate he may have deserved some better results, but there's still a lot to be desired with a career 18.9 percent strikeout rate. Elder excels at keeping the ball on the ground but has also struggled with the long ball, as evidenced by a 1.4 HR/9 the past two seasons. He could be a bounce-back candidate in 2026 based on the strong finish, but Elder isn't guaranteed to receive significant run in Atlanta's rotation and has poor strikeout potential, limiting any upside. Read Past Outlooks
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RANKS
Rest of Season
From Preseason
#424
ADP
League Majors
Bats R
Throws R
40 Man Yes
Height 6'2"
Weight 240
DOB 5/19/1999
Born Decatur, TX
College Texas
Drafted 5th Rd 2020 ATL
Signed a one-year contract with Atlanta in March of 2025.
Fans six in Saturday's outing
PAtlanta Braves
March 15, 2026
Elder gave up one run on one hit and two walks over five innings in Saturday's Grapefruit League game against the Red Sox. He struck out six.
Analysis
The right-hander tossed 49 of 78 pitches for strikes against a Boston lineup that featured Ceddanne Rafaela as its only big-league regular. Elder looks just about ready for the start of the regular season, having posted a 12:5 K:BB and 4.72 ERA this spring over 13.1 innings, and he's locked into a rotation spot with Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow), Hurston Waldrep (elbow) and Joey Wentz (knee) all on the shelf.
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Pitching Stats
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2026 MLB Game Log
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2024
 
 
-11%
BAA vs LHP
2026
No Stats
2025
 
 
-21%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-16%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2024vs Left .265 456 86 43 107 16 2 15
Since 2024vs Right .297 449 91 25 124 25 2 17
2026vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025vs Left .239 335 67 32 71 11 2 10
2025vs Right .301 344 64 19 96 21 0 14
2024vs Left .336 121 19 11 36 5 0 5
2024vs Right .283 105 27 6 28 4 2 3
More Splits→ View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2024
 
 
-37%
ERA on Road
2026
No Stats
2025
 
 
-38%
ERA on Road
2024
 
 
-35%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2024Home 6.88 1.78 100.2 4 9 0 7.5 4.0 1.5
Since 2024Away 4.36 1.14 105.1 6 7 0 7.9 2.0 1.3
2026Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025Home 6.55 1.71 77.0 3 6 0 7.0 4.1 1.4
2025Away 4.08 1.08 79.1 5 5 0 8.1 1.8 1.4
2024Home 7.99 1.99 23.2 1 3 0 9.1 3.8 1.9
2024Away 5.19 1.31 26.0 1 2 0 7.6 2.4 1.0
More Splits→ View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Bryce Elder compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.57
 
K/9
7.5
 
BB/9
2.9
 
HR/9
1.4
 
Fastball
91.8 mph
 
ERA
5.30
 
WHIP
1.39
 
BABIP
.316
 
GB/FB
1.74
 
Left On Base
66.7%
 
Exit Velocity
83.1 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.6%
 
Spin Rate
2266 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
29.0%
 
Swinging Strike
9.8%
 
Prospect Rankings History
View Complete Bryce Elder Prospect Ranking History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2025
2024
2023
2022
Elder reeked of pitchability in 2023 as he came out of nowhere to provide Atlanta with some much-needed innings and out-pitched his stuff. In 2024, he simply reeked. Elder is normally a high ground-ball rate pitcher, but he left too many balls up, and the league hit eight homers off him in 49.2 innings of work, which pushed his ERA up and pushed him up the road on I-85 to Gwinnett to work most of the season. Elder pitched better in Triple-A but will be coming to camp competing with multiple names who have better stuff. Since Elder's fastball is a poor pitch by both velocity and stuff measures, his success is wholly contingent upon his ability to keep the ball on the ground and to stay out of fastball counts. He showed that is possible in 2023 when he was at his best, but 2024 also reminded us how fine a line pitchers of this build must walk. NL Only leaguers should keep an eye on Elder for the depth purposes and spot starts, but not fill out a rotation with him as he is unlikely to work a big load this season with Atlanta.
A fifth-round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft out of the University of Texas, Elder rocketed through Atlanta's minor-league system and made his big-league debut in April of 2022 at the ripe age of 22. He's enjoyed a good amount of success so far at baseball's highest level, carrying a 3.66 ERA through his first 228.2 innings of work with Atlanta, but the now 24-year-old right-hander probably won't be overly popular in fantasy drafts this spring because of his low strikeout rate. Leaning heavily on cutters, sinkers and sliders, Elder likes to put batters away by inducing soft contact as opposed to the more elite fantasy starters who rack up punchouts. He should be a solid source of ERA help and wins with a locked-in rotation spot for the reigning NL East champions, but don't count on a sudden change in approach.
This is an endgame pick that should please the Elder Gods. While Elder does not light up the radar gun with overpowering stuff -- he clocks in around 90-91 mph -- the right-hander does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground with his sinking fastball. He allowed just a single homer on the sinker last season (369 thrown). The slider, cutter and changeup complement the primary pitch, giving Elder a diverse repertoire that projects well in the Atlanta starting rotation. His 10.1 K-BB% from his rookie season does little to excite, but the team context and a groundball rate pushing 50% give Elder streaming appeal in a wide variety of leagues. He threw his cutter almost exclusively against left-handed batters last season. While the cutter was effective for him, it's not a big swing-and-miss pitch, so the slider and changeup will have to do the heavy lifting if he's to take a step forward with the strikeouts in 2023.
Elder is a true starting pitcher all the way, with four pitches (sinker, cutter, changeup, slider) that he throws over 20% of the time. All of his pitches have excellent vertical movement, which helps make up for the fact that his sinker tops out in the low-90s. His changeup and slider are what he relies on for whiffs, but he is also willing to pitch to contact, having logged groundball rates over 50% in the minors. Elder was thrust into action as Atlanta's sixth starter early this season. If he is able to command his pitches and limit hard contact, he could be up for most of the season, but it is conceivable he could be sent to Triple-A for more seasoning, given that he only made seven starts there in 2021.
More Fantasy News
Impressive against Detroit
PAtlanta Braves
March 3, 2026
Elder gave up three hits over three scoreless innings in Monday's Grapefruit League game against the Tigers. He struck out one without walking a batter.
Analysis
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Maintaining velo increase
PAtlanta Braves
February 26, 2026
Elder averaged 93.3 mph with his four-seam fastball during his spring debut Wednesday, maintaining the velocity gains he flashed at the end of last season, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Analysis
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Could be part of six-man rotation
PAtlanta Braves
February 23, 2026
Elder appears likely to get a start or two early in the season with Atlanta playing 13 consecutive days to begin its schedule, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
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Fighting for rotation spot
PAtlanta Braves
February 15, 2026
Elder could begin the season as Atlanta's No. 5 starter with Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) on the 60-day IL, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
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Goes seven innings in loss
PAtlanta Braves
September 24, 2025
Elder (8-11) took the loss Wednesday against the Nationals, allowing three runs on six hits over seven innings. He struck out seven.
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Candidate to earn rotation role
PAtlanta Braves
February 23, 2026
Elder is likely to earn a spot in Atlanta's rotation in the early stages of the 2026 season, according to Mark Bowman of MLB.com.
Analysis
Elder and Joey Wentz are reportedly competing for the fifth starter role, but there's a scenario in which both players open the season in the rotation. With Atlanta playing 13 straight games to open the campaign, the team could opt to open the 2026 season with a six-man rotation, allowing both Elder and Wentz to be starters in the early stages of the schedule. Elder made 28 starts for Atlanta in the 2025 regular season and delivered a 5.30 ERA.
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