MLB Barometer: Striving for Stability

Whether it's fantasy or real life, stability is a key component we strive for in our lives, but it's awfully tough to attain. That's because stability is not tangible. Stability is more of a feeling. A peace of mind. It can come and go over the months and years. The feeling of stability can pop in and escape within the same day. It goes with the wind.

For those of you who know me well, you could say that I've always been awfully hard on myself. Always in search of stability. Fifteen years out of college, and, to this day, I still regret not latching on to a stable profession like I planned as a teen. Perhaps as a dentist like half of the members of my family. Or a financial analyst like I studied to be in college. I've had several careers since I've graduated: a headhunter (for jobs, of course), a small business owner, and I helped build sales operations teams for two tech startups. Yet somehow, it's not until recently that I found some career stability – in real estate. I have my salesperson's license here in California (if you're looking to buy in Los Angeles, I got you J), but my day-to-day is running a program for mortgage insurance companies at the country's oldest real estate auction company, Hudson and Marshall. After so many years, it's nice to actually have a challenging profession that I look forward to waking up to each and every (er, most) mornings.

Though nothing makes me look forward to each new day more than fantasy baseball. Reading and writing about it. Researching and playing it. It's a joy that never gets old. Sure, a Clay Buchholz/Tyler Chatwood one-two ratio punch can leave you reeling for a couple of hours, but there's always another day for which to prep. Another set of empty box scores yet to be filled for the day.

I truly respect and envy all of the guys and gals who do this for a living. What a feeling it must be to wake up and prep for a fantasy radio show or a podcast. Or to drive into the RotoWire office in Madison, Wisconsin, each morning to collaborate with colleagues you also call friends — perhaps with the Brewers-Cubs day game on in the background. Not everyone who is full-time in the industry has that luxury. Most folks in our industry work out of home offices and don't get to experience that daily feeling of camaraderie outside of industry conferences, expert leagues and NFBC gatherings. But many of those bonds are long standing and the feeling is just the same, just more spaced out in time. I sometimes daydream about a life where I'm surrounded not only by sports all day long, but with people who share in my passion.

The ascension of DFS has muddied our waters a bit. Regulation in daily fantasy sports is not a hope, but an eventual reality. Our industry is fortunate to have RotoWire co-founder and president, Peter Schoenke, fighting this crusade on our behalf as the Chairman of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association. Peter is testifying before Congress this week.

I'm sure there are plenty season-long vets among you who blame DFS and their companies' leaders for the extra attention this ruckus has brought to light, both from government and that which has been miscast in the mainstream media. But the evolution of a game like DFS was inevitable. Not all may love or play it, but in one form or another, it will remain. It's good for our game, too, bringing in new waves of young fans to the game of baseball and to our industry. Besides, we shouldn't discriminate if someone chooses to live his life ordering takeout three times a day, using DFS Lineup Builders from bed with his hat on backward. The next few months will be anything but stable, but when the smoke clears and Pete and the other leaders of our industry have done their part, fantasy as a whole will be in a new and better place.

Perhaps you just had a child and you haven't slept more than three consecutive hours in the last month. Or your children are leaving the nest, off to college after this summer. Or you sell your home as you prepare your move for an out-of-state job. Wherever we may go, fantasy is our one stability. Even if the government regulates our game to something we don't all agree on. There will always be draft prep and an actual draft, whether live or on a computer with a message board. There will always be tough waiver wire and lineup decisions to make every week for 26 weeks. Every. Single. Year. In baseball, and in fantasy baseball, there is and always will be one semblance of stability in our lives that keeps the camaraderie alive and brings us closer together, no matter how far apart we are.

RISERS

Ben Zobrist (2B/OF, CHC)

Zobrist was my ideal mid-round MI target in drafts this spring. The rationale was three-fold: he was cheap (201 ADP), multi-eligible at second base and outfield, and he would line up daily in the midst of baseball's most dangerous offense. A guy who could out-earn his draft slot by a few rounds. There was no way any of us could foresee his recent offensive explosion, especially since most of us assumed that Zobrist was far past his prime in all aspects of his game. Last week, Zobrist had the biggest week in baseball: 8 R, 4 HR, 15 RBI with a slash line of .360/.455/1.335. It's the best week he'll have all season, but that doesn't necessarily make him a sell-high candidate. There's something to be said about talent begetting other talent; the intrinsic ability of hitters to step up their game because of the effort of great hitters around them. Zobrist doesn't run much anymore and likely won't. He won't approach his career effort from 2009 (91-27-91-17-.297) but could still be a valuable asset to your fantasy squads. Sporting a career 12 percent walk-rate, that number is currently at an all-time high of 17 percent. He's striking out an impressively low 10 percent clip to boot. Zobrist appears to be experiencing a renaissance at age 34. If you've got stock, hold on and enjoy the ride.

Kevin Pillar (OF, TOR)

It would have been nice for Pillar to have an all-time horrible week last week since I have very little shares. One of my favorite weekly activities is scooping up struggling players in FAAB with whom others have grown impatient. As long as that target is healthy and you've got a drop on your team, there isn't much to lose by stashing said player and seeing if a struggle was simply a prolonged slump or if adjustments at the plate can be made. Unfortunately, no one in his right mind dropped Pillar in 12-teamers as he proceeded to hit .407 (11 for 27) last week. Pillar was hitting .230 after the first two weeks of the season and has since pulled the average up above .300 on the year. Pillar was never a big prospect, but, like Zobrist above, he was due to start pulling his weight in one of baseball's best lineups. The big weakness in Pillar's game is a lack of walks. Pillar's walk-rate was slightly under five percent last year and is currently a paltry 2.4 percent, though he's been splitting time at the leadoff spot with Michael Saunders. The other latent part of his game where we should expect some improvement is on the base paths. Pillar stole 25 bags on 29 attempts last season and has only two steals on three attempts this year. Don't expect Pillar to set the fantasy world on fire and repeat last season's breakout. But should Saunders break down again – most think that's a matter of when, not if – Pillar's full-time services in one of baseball's most fruitful run-producing spots would be requested. If you're assessing from afar, look for those improvements in walk-rate and an uptick on the base paths.

Danny Salazar (SP, CLE)

Salazar's walk-rate may always be an issue. It's fairly difficult for pitchers to make huge transformations in their approach on the mound. Nevertheless, Salazar is quickly rising near elite status and is arguably one of the five best starting pitchers in the American League already. He's averaging over a strikeout per inning and hasn't allowed a home run since his first start of the season. His latest two outings were his best of the season – a 17:3 K:BB ratio over 14.2 innings, including just one free pass against the pesky Royals last week. Salazar is holding batters to a .142 average and has a WHIP under 1.00. We can safely assume that the WHIP is the one category that's likely to see the most regression. Drafted in a range of SP2's that included Sonny Gray, Johnny Cueto, Adam Wainwright and Cole Hamels, Salazar is earning his 72 ADP early on. Expect the strikeouts-per-nine to remain above 10 and for him to make a legitimate run at the AL Cy Young award this year.

Fernando Rodney (RP, SD)

Probably one of your least favorite relievers is my least favorite, too. But he's off to a nice start over the first five weeks. Rodney hasn't allowed an earned run in 12 appearances and has notched saves in all eight of his opportunities. He's averaging a strikeout per inning to boot. Rodney imploded with the Mariners (an ERA hovering around 5.00), who then traded him to the Cubs last August. He allowed just one run over 12 innings down the stretch, as we all witnessed an uptick in his velocity, back to the level of his dominant Tampa Bay Ray days. The Padres signed Rodney to a one-year deal in the offseason, but his stay in San Diego likely won't be a long one. There are plenty of teams that will be looking for a setup man, and perhaps even a couple of teams that would trust Rodney over their current closers.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Wilson Ramos (C, WAS)

Due in part to offseason LASIK surgery, Ramos has provided a surprising edge in batting average for his owners. Ramos hit .458 last week (11 for 24) and is leading all catchers with a .353 BA through five weeks of the season. Now for the downside. Have you seen his on-base percentage? It's .373, just a smidge above his actual batting average. In fact, Ramos has only taken two walks in 83 plate appearances this year. He's one of the best power-hitting catchers in baseball but so far has hit only three homers. It's difficult to estimate year-end numbers for Ramos, but it would be fair to assume that there will be a tradeoff between power and average. Ramos is much more likely to hit 20 homers this season than he is to end the year above .300. Nevertheless, fantasy owners aren't complaining. In a position that appears to be even tougher to find production in than usual, we'll gladly take what Ramos gives us and hope he can surpass last year's career-high of 128 games played.

Adam Duvall (OF, CIN)

The former Giants' prospect has established himself on the heavier side of a platoon with Dodgers' ex-pat Scott Schebler and is pretty much performing as expected – hefty strikeouts with a handful of homers. Actually forget platooning, Duvall has started 17 of the Reds' last 19 games in left field. He's striking out in a third of his at-bats but had a fine Week 5, hitting .363 and knocking four balls out of Great American Ball Park. Duvall hit 26 and 27 homers the past two seasons in Triple-A and should be expected to hit close to 20 for the Reds while continuing to strikeout at a heavy rate. Coming off a hot week, don't be afraid to sit Duvall for a stronger alternative in Week 6. The Reds get some tough matchups against Pirates and Phillies starters, including three lefties, against whom Duvall has yet to hit a home run this season.

Nate Karns (SP, SEA)

Raise your hand if you drafted Karns but he's no longer on your roster. Those of us who dropped Karns a couple of weeks ago are yet again reminded of the virtue of patience when it comes to our spring targets. After a lukewarm start, Karns has strung together three consecutive quality starts; the most recent one was a season-high, nine strikeout outing against the Astros that included a 20 percent swinging strike rate. The same Astros he shutout just two weeks prior. Karns works primarily off of three pitches: fastball, changeup and a knuckle curve. The fastball is up to 93 mph, from 92 last season. He's averaging nearly 10 strikeouts-per-nine, a rate he can uphold throughout the year, though Karns will continue to have occasional bumps in the road with homers allowed and free passes. Karns lines up against a struggling Angels' offense this week before heading for the road against the Orioles. Remember to pick your spots with those flyballers so that your fantasy ratios from Karns in your starting lineup can beat out his real-life year-end ones.

Drew Pomeranz (SP, SD)

We're heading into the sixth week of the season and guess who's quickly becoming the Padres most reliable starting pitcher? Pomeranz is among the league leaders in strikeouts-per-nine with 10.85 and has allowed just two home runs over six starts. He has limited opponents to four hits or less in all of his starts except one, but has allowed three walks in five of those starts. His 3.67 xFIP alludes to some defensive luck, but he looks confident on the mound and should continue to be one of the National League's biggest gainers among SPs. Pomeranz should be benched against the Cubs in Wrigley this week (as just about every starter should) and lines up for two home starts in Week 7 against the Dodgers and Giants. Expect the k's to hover between the nine and 10 mark per-nine over the course of the year with the ERA regressing a full run, closer to 3.20 over the course of the year.

FALLERS

J.D. Martinez (OF, DET)

Ah, perfect timing. Yet another 'Faller' who goes yard on a Monday — off the new $175 million man, Stephen Strasburg, no less. Martinez recently switched lineup spots with fellow struggler Justin Upton, but managed just one hit in 22 at-bats last week. Martinez has just four homers through his first 30 games, well off-pace from his career-high 38 last season. Martinez has been more disciplined at the plate thus far, striking out at a 17 percent clip, compared to a steady 26 to 27 percent over the last two seasons. The most concerning metric is his .124 ISO – half of what he ended with last year. There really isn't much reason to worry. Martinez simply is off to a slow start and will heat up, as will the rest of the heart of that lineup. If he sticks in the two-hole, Martinez should be able to surpass last year's career-high 93 runs. He likely won't reach 38 homers again, but a follow-up in the low 30s should be expected.

Troy Tulowitzki (SS, TOR)

The concern for Tulowitzki's slow start and struggles as a Blue Jay almost feel universal. Those who avoided him are snickering and hollering "I told you so". Those of us who invested a fourth or fifth round pick are holding our breath at every at-bat, hoping he doesn't strain his rib cage on one of his horrendously mistimed swings. Tulowitzki has displayed some power, knocking five homers out in 31 games, but every other part of his offensive game is almost foreign to us. He is hitting .162 and is striking out at a 28 percent rate – 80 percent higher than his career k-rate of 17%. His hard hit percentage is down nearly a quarter from last year (28 to 22 percent) and surprisingly, Tulo has just one double this season. It would be hard to imagine the 31-year old falling apart so quickly. He won't end the year below the Mendoza Line, nor even below .240, but he's got quite the whole to dig out of. Surely, all of the injuries over the years have taken a toll on him, but barring another longterm setback, Tulo should rebound. Even though it may mean not reaching value at his relatively high ADP.

Max Scherzer (SP, WAS)

It's fair practice to panic when your ace is throwing batting practice every five days. Scherzer is tied for the major league lead in home runs allowed (nine) and is sporting a ghastly and uncharacteristic 4.60 ERA through his first seven starts. His most recent start was a blowup against the Cubs where he served up four home runs on seven earned and three walks. Most of his metrics are in line with his previous seasons of domination, but the one difference that clearly sticks out is the walks – his 3.14 BB/9 is more than double last season's 1.34. Looking at his pitch selection, it's clear that Scherzer is relying more on his slider, but that slider isn't the problem as the opposition is hitting .156 against it, while .299 versus his fastball. Scherzer's fastballs have been gifts right down the middle of the plate this year. It's an issue that the veteran should be able to adjust to and remedy.

Andrew Cashner (SP, SD)

It almost takes some extra digging into Cashner's game logs to figure out how his ratios (4.93 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) are so awful. He has allowed three or more earned runs in five of his seven starts and is walking a little over 3.5 batters per nine innings. He has yet to pitch more than six innings in any of his outings and has been run out of the game before the fifth two times already. The former first rounder has alternated between pinpoint control with low k-rates and vice versa almost every year since becoming a full-time member of the Padres rotation in 2012. Cashner has always thrown heat, topping out near 100 mph, but has seen his fastball go down a tick on average, from last season. The 6-6 Texan will be a frustrating guy to own this season. He may still produce solid starts from time to time, but Cashner is likely a starting pitcher whom you won't miss if you drop from your 12-teamer.

DISHONORABLE MENTIONS

Adam Jones (OF, BAL)

Jones is off to an extremely sluggish start, hitting .200 with just one HR and nine RBI. It's almost unfathomable that the once-reliable veteran is mired in such a long slump with such little production hitting in a prime spot of one of baseball's grittiest offenses. Though it may feel like he's older, Jones is just 30. His expected decline was already priced in, as he was readily available in the fifth round of most NFBC 12-team leagues this spring. Part of it was justified because of his reduced stolen base attempts over the last couple years. But much of it was not, as the discount was mostly due to lower year-end stats because he spent time on the disabled list for the first time in his career. It's interesting to note that Jones' 7.7 percent walk-rate is the highest it's ever been. Unfortunately, he has just four extra-base hits (all doubles) and is sporting a sad sub-.100 ISO. Jones is off-pace across the board, but a hot streak is coming. I can smell it in the air.

Jedd Gyorko (MI, STL)

Gyorko's name is still appearing on the Cards' lineup card every so often, but he has officially lost the shortstop gig to rookie Aledmys Diaz. Just as a zebra can't change its stripes, Gyorko hasn't suddenly learned how to hit because he's surrounded by better hitters. He's the same old underwhelming prospect with occasional pop who never lived up to the hype. Gyorko has seven walks and four homers in 78 plate appearances and it's likely that the .197 will make some gains based on his current .200 BABIP that's nearly 70 points below his career average. But without the ability to gain rhythm as a mainstay in the lineup, Gyorko is no more than a guy who can be left on waivers. He does mix in for Kolten Wong at second base, so should Wong get hurt or Diaz falter, perhaps an opportunity for some consistent at-bats will arise.

Yordano Ventura (SP, KC)

As our old buddy and Yahoo veteran scribe Scott Pianowski pointed out on Twitter the other day, Ventura simply cannot be trusted. He's got as many walks as strikeouts on the young season and heads into Week 6 with a 4.65 ERA that is further worrisome if you believe in xFIP and notice that the number is 5.92. Ventura is similar to two other starters mentioned over the last two weeks – Rubby De La Rosa and Michael Pineda; high-velocity arms who make opposing batters whiff often, but are highly emotional and easily rattled after giving up hits. Actually, Ventura's strikeout-rate has never reached a strikeout-per-inning, but it was supposed to have been up there by now. The fact that he has walked at least five batters in half of his starts thus far is incredibly worrisome. The 24-year-old has the league's best defense behind him and plenty of "upside" but this start-to-start volatility will continue throughout the season, making him very difficult to rely on.

Derek Holland (SP, TEX)

Please believe me when I tell you that I'm not that lazy to simply list Holland as a Faller because of his latest performance – 11 ER against the Blue Jays. The main issue with Holland is the lack of strikeouts, just 19 in nearly 32 innings. Holland has a nice mix of four pitches, relying primarily on his sinker, but still doesn't truly have a knockout pitch. The other issue is inconsistency. His outings are always unpredictable, with a wide range of outcomes from gems to complete and utter disasters. Fantasy owners are in a tough spot because guys like him and Cashner are right on the bubble of 12-team leagues. The temptation to drop them is probably a weekly occurrence. It's difficult not to consider dropping Holland after such a disastrous start, but such a reactionary move is probably not the right one. I can understand a Cashner drop in 12s, but Holland needs to be held for now. Even if that means some time on your bench for now.