Farm Futures: Rookie Outfielder Rankings

These targets are for 2025 leagues, particularly draft and hold formats like the NFBC Draft Champions contest, which is 15 teams and 50 rounds (750 players drafted). I covered many of these outfielders (and a bunch of pitching prospects) on this week's Prospect Podcast:

Heston Kjerstad (BAL) and Jonatan Clase (TOR) are under 131 MLB at-bats but have logged over 45 days on active MLB rosters, so they don't show up on the top 400 prospect rankings, but given how few quality prospects there are for 2025, I wanted to include them in this article. I'll be using the same criteria for the Rookie Infielder and Rookie Pitcher articles that will be out later this month.

There are only five rookie outfielders who are going on average within the first 30 rounds of 50-round Draft Champions leagues: Jasson Dominguez (NYY), Dylan Crews (WAS), Roman Anthony (BOS), Kjerstad and Chase DeLauter (CLE). Beyond those five, only Colby Thomas (SAC), Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN), Clase and Owen Caissie (CHC) have been drafted in all 16 DCs on record (as of Nov. 17, 2024). 

TARGETS

Jasson Dominguez, NYY

DC Rounds: 10-11

I don't consider Dominguez a "target" but I've drafted him in one-third of my NFBC drafts so far, so I guess I'm higher on him than the average drafter. I actually prefer Parker Meadows, who goes about a round later on average, but in the cases where I drafted Dominguez, I'd either already drafted Meadows or another team had, so I took Dominguez. Steamer projects a 20/20 season with a .249 average, which is a not a common projection for a rookie entering their age-22 season. It seems that a lot of people are sleeping on how impressive Dominguez's minor-league career was, especially when factoring in age/level, and people are also holding Dominguez's lack of postseason playing time against him more than I am. Common sense tells me Dominguez should be an everyday left fielder for the Yankees next year.

Heston Kjerstad, BAL

DC Rounds: 20-22

I don't have any shares of Kjerstad, mostly because I underestimated how high I'd need to draft him in early drafts. I like to go for one of Kjerstad or Andy Pages in this range, because I think they're decent bets to push for 20-25 home runs without hurting my batting average, and Kjerstad could even flirt with 30 homers this year if he plays enough. Among minor-league hitters 25 and under with at least 200 plate appearances last year, Kjerstad ranked second with a 42 percent hard-hit rate (behind Giants Single-A outfielder Bo Davidson), so don't sweat his middling MLB small-sample Statcast data. He may sit against lefties early in the season, but I think that's factored into the cost.

Colby Thomas, OAK

DC Rounds: 31-33

By around Memorial Day, I expect the Athletics' outfield to be Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday and Thomas, with all three playing pretty regularly. He may even get a chance to break camp as a starting outfielder, given that he slashed .272/.344/.559 (117 wRC+) with 17 home runs and three steals in 73 games at Triple-A, albeit with a 30.3 percent strikeout rate. If it breaks right, Thomas could be a Tyler O'Neill type in fantasy with less durability concerns, potentially going 30/15 during his peak seasons while hitting for a middling average.

Jonatan Clase, TOR

DC Rounds: 36-40

The Blue Jays have a lot of moving parts on the depth chart, but I think Clase will get an opportunity sooner than later to show what he can do as a regular. He may not be given a very long leash, but he's obviously got a high stolen-base ceiling (12 steals in 35 games at Triple-A for the Jays last year) and he's not a zero in the power department. Steamer600 (Steamer's projection over 600 PAs) has Clase for 13 homers and 35 steals with a .220 average and a .290 OBP. He obviously won't get 600 plate appearances if he hits .220 with a .290 OBP, but if he takes a step forward as a hitter (he doesn't turn 23 until May), he could perform at a 15-homer/40-steal clip.

Johnathan Rodriguez, CLE

DC Rounds: 41-45

The nice thing about Rodriguez is the price. There's very little buzz and he lacks a clear path to playing time, given that the drafting public has decided Chase DeLauter has the inside track to the Guardians' right field job. However, Rodriguez might be a slight adjustment away from really breaking out -- he had elite bat speed (76.2 mph average, 71.5 mph is league average) but his swing was too long (8.3 feet on average, 7.3 is league average) last year. Even so, he feasted on Triple-A pitching, logging a .301 average, .390 OBP, 140 wRC+ and 29 homers in 118 games. Rodriguez is obviously power-over-hit, but he could provide Matt Wallner-esque fantasy production this year.

ENDGAME OPTIONS

Alan Roden, TOR

Wade Meckler, SF

Enrique Bradfield, BAL

Javier Sanoja, MIA

Matthew Lugo, LAA

These outfield prospects should be available with your final couple picks of a 50-round, 15-team Draft Champions league. Sanoja and Lugo haven't even been drafted yet through 16 completed Draft Champions. 

Roden and Meckler are similar — potential plus hit tools with questionable power, speed and defense. Roden has shown more signs of accessing double-digit homer power than Meckler, and Steamer sees both of them as above-average hitters as rookies:

Roden's Steamer 600: 12 HR, 9 SB, .253 AVG, 110 wRC+

Meckler's Steamer 600: 10 HR, 8 SB, .262 AVG, 102 wRC+

Bradfield is my favorite endgame speed dart among outfield prospects. He probably won't be ready until the second half, but he's an elite defensive center fielder, and I could envision a scenario where Baltimore looks to get him acclimated as the primary center fielder and No. 9 hitter over the final couple months. Only Dairon Blanco, Chandler Simpson (TB), Esteury Ruiz and Ronald Acuna have a higher Steamer 600 stolen-base projection among all outfielders.

Sanoja can play all over the field, so he could add shortstop and/or second base eligibility at some point during the season. He is probably a couple years away from approaching his modest ceiling as a power hitter, but he could hit over .260 as a rookie while chipping in double-digit steals.

Lugo isn't great, and he's limited to left field, but he's big-league ready and could produce at close to a 20-homer/10-steal clip over a full season. 

AVOIDS

Chase DeLauter, CLE

DC Rounds: 23-27

A commenter on Blue Sky mentioned that they liked DeLauter's draft cost, under the assumption he'd be an endgame pick in a standard redraft league, and I actually like that logic more than taking DeLauter in this range of a draft and hold. If DeLauter's lower-body issues pop up again in the spring or he opens the year at Triple-A, you can just cut him in a shallower home league and there will be good players available to pick up. But in the middle of a DC, I'd definitely rather take Andrew Benintendi, Jhonkensy Noel, Trevor Larnach or Pavin Smith -- four outfielders who are going later than DeLauter on average and come with less risk.

Chandler Simpson, TB

DC Rounds: 36-41

All I've ever been told about Simpson is that he is a bad defensive outfielder, despite his 80-grade speed, due to poor routes and a terrible arm. He could certainly improve as a defender, or he could be better than I've been told, but if he is a 40- or 45-grade defender, the Rays won't play him enough to pay off his ascending price in high-stakes leagues. He's also got 20-grade power, and that's only because we're not allowed to hand out grades lower than 20. Simpson's lone career homer was an inside the parker, and whenever he's in your starting lineup, you're going to be taking a hit in home runs and RBI. There's also a chance advanced arms just overpower his slash and dash approach -- he's never even played at Triple-A. I'll take Enrique Bradfield 200-plus picks later.