The field is set for the Nathan's Famous 4th of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest, and once again Joey Chestnut (-2500 at Caesars Sportsbook) and Miki Sudo (-1800) are the massive favorites to win the men's and women's contests.
Last year, Chestnut finished with 70.5 hot dogs and buns (HDB), outpacing second place Patrick Bertoletti by 24. Miki Sudo tallied 33 HDB, which was far fewer than her record-setting 51 in 2024 but still enough to beat second place Michelle Lesco by 10.25.
Chestnut has now won by a margin of at least 10 HDB each year since his upset loss in 2015. Meanwhile, Sudo has won 11 of the past 12 years with the only exception being in 2021, when she did not participate due to her pregnancy. Lesco was the winner that year.
With that said, there's no value in betting on either legend to win, and betting against them would be foolish. However, we can find value elsewhere.
Who is Competing in the 2026 Hot Dog Eating Contest?
A field of 15 men and 12 women will compete on Independence Day, earning spots as past champions, regional qualifiers and wild card selections.
A notable name missing from the list is Mayoi Ebihara, who in 2023 and 2024 appeared as the first real threat to Miki Sudo's title since 2019. No word on why she is not competing this year or why she did not participate in 2025.
Men's Participants
| Competitor | Personal Best |
| Joey Chestnut | 76 |
| Patrick Bertoletti | 58 |
| Geoffrey Esper | 53 |
| James Webb | 52 |
| Nick Wehry | 51.75 |
| Max Stanford | 47.5 |
| Ricardo Corbucci | 45 |
| Gideon Oji | 43.5 |
| Derek Hendrickson | 33.5 |
| George Chiger | 32.5 |
| Radim Dvoracek | 29.5 |
| Tanner Gray | 25 |
| Cameron Meade | 25 |
| Jerome Burns | 24 |
| Crazy Legs Conti | 20 |
Women's Participants
| Competitor | Personal Best |
| Miki Sudo | 51 |
| Michelle Lesco | 32 |
| Domenica Dee (Danielle DiSapia) | 23.5 |
| Larell Marie Mele | 21.25 |
| Katie Prettyman | 16 |
| Tandra Childress | 16 |
| Semora Kludy | 15 |
| Cherish Brown | 10 |
| Rene Rovtar | 9 |
| Camille O'Brien | 8 |
| Lainey Eaton | 7 |
| Lauren Pace-Fraunfelter | 7 |
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Strategy
The top competitors have a strong history of performance that we can use to project their totals. But what other trends and strategy should we factor into our betting choices this year?
Get the Best Line
Successful sports betting is all about finding value wherever you can. Whether you're betting on football, baseball or even competitive eating, shopping for the best odds across multiple sportsbooks can make a meaningful difference. RotoWire's Sports Betting pages compare lines from the top sportsbooks, making it easy to identify the best prices before you place a wager.
You're not going to find great value in betting on a winner of the men's or women's contest, as Chestnut and Sudo are the huge favorites, and anyone else winning would be a historic upset.
However, you can find other edges, like the projections at Underdog compared to PrizePicks. Bertoletti, Esper, Webb and Wehry all have slightly higher projections at Underdog than PrizePicks, so if, for example, you expect a slower eating pace, you should take the edge that Underdog offers.
Weather Matters
As of this writing, the forecast is calling for temperatures in the mid-90s and average humidity around 51%. Humidity is one of the biggest factors in the contest because it makes competitors overheat more quickly and makes it harder for the body to dissipate heat.
In 2020, when the contest was held indoors in perfect conditions, Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo shattered the world records. On the other hand, Chestnut was limited to 62 HDB in 2023, the lowest of his past nine years in the contest, when humidity reached 82%.
This is trending toward being the hottest day of at least the past 15 years for the contest, which suggests that we won't be seeing any new world records or even personal bests, although it doesn't necessarily mean we'll see unders hit across the board.
Monitor the Women's Contest Before Betting on the Men
This is the no. 1 most important factor in my over/under betting. Monitor Miki Sudo's results, and if she outperforms her projection then you should be confident in the men exceeding their expectations too.
In 2020, both Sudo and Chestnut set world records. In 2021, Michelle Lesco topped 30 HDB, a massive number for her, and Chestnut topped his own record. In 2022 and 2023, Sudo's totals dropped from 48.5 to 40 and 39.5, and Chestnut's numbers dipped too.
In 2024, after Sudo crushed her own record, I bet the overs on all of the top men's eaters, and they all cashed. Then last year, Sudo's total dropped to just 33 after hitting 51 the previous year. In a post-contest interview she said, "the hot dogs were great; the weather is beautiful; the crowd had me going. I'm thinking maybe the buns were more filling than usual." That was my queue to quickly bet the unders on all of the men, and they all hit except for Chestnut, who topped his line at the time by .25.
Best Bets for the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
Joey Chestnut & Miki Sudo - Total Hot Dogs Eaten under 111.5 (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)
As I mentioned, Chestnut and Sudo have had their most historic runs when they've had favorable weather conditions (or no weather conditions at all, indoors). Can they take the heat this weekend? I don't think so. They shouldn't have any problem lapping the field, but I'm not expecting huge numbers.
Sudo has only exceeded 40 hot dogs and buns in two of the past six years, and I'll project around 39 for her this year. Meanwhile, Chestnut has averaged 65.2 over his three most recent Nathan's appearances. I'll give the GOAT the benefit of the doubt and project 70 for him this year, which gives them a combined projection of 109.
Winner W/O Joey Chestnut: James Webb (+425 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Patrick Bertoletti (-360) is the justified favorite to finish as the runner-up to Chestnut, but not at that price. He did finish as runner-up last year after winning the competition in 2024 when Chestnut was ruled ineligible to compete, however, competitors like Webb and Geoffrey Esper have been battling it out for second and third place for years and have proven capable.
I like Webb, who trailed Bertoletti by just one HDB (46.5 to 45.5) last year. Webb has been on an impressive run since May 2nd, when he set a new world record by eating 55 Texas sausages in 10 minutes. Those sausages are more than double the size of the hot dogs that he'll be eating on Independence Day, though that competition doesn't include buns. He also came in second to Chestnut in the 2026 Ultimate Bologna Showdown (12.75 lbs. in eight minutes). In addition, he won the Blackberry Moonshine Smoked Wings Eating Championship (256 wings) and National Donut Day World Donut Eating Championship (63 donuts) and then followed those by breaking the Mystic Lake record at the World Rib Eating Championship, eating 9.65 pounds of ribs in just 12 minutes.
Patrick Bertoletti under 55.5 hot dogs eaten (-135 at Caesars Sportsbook)
In the past five years, nobody has eaten more than 53 hot dogs and buns other than Chestnut (four times in four tries) and Bertoletti (once in 2024). In total, Bertoletti has competed in the contest 11 times and has only exceeded 55 HDB one time, the one time that Chestnut was absent. Is it possible that (maybe subconsciously) he knows that he can't beat Chestnut, so he doesn't push himself as hard when the champ is on stage with him? He only finished with 46.5 last year, so asking him to take down another 10 seems unrealistic.
When is the Nathan's Famous 4th of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest, and How Can I Watch?
ESPN has exclusive live broadcast rights from 10:45 am to the conclusion of the event.
The women's competition coverage will begin at 10:45 am ET and will be telecast live on ESPN3 and espn.com.
The men's competition coverage will begin at 12:00 pm ET and will be telecast live on ESPN2 and espn.com. It will also be simulcast on ABC starting at 12:30 pm. It will re-air on ESPN2 at 4:00 pm. Air times subject to change.
