This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
I have little interest betting on an England team as the top overall favorite at around +300 given their recent form and I think France should be the overall favorite. France are experienced and loaded at every position. As much as I don't enjoy watching their boring style of play, it has translated to results with back-to-back trips to the World Cup finals.
Winner: France +380 (FanDuel) and Portugal +800 (DraftKings)
Further down the board, I like taking Portugal at +800. While Portugal might lack a top goalscorer in their prime like England and France have at forward, they still have strong options in Rafael Leao and Diogo Jota, and of course Cristiano Ronaldo. Their midfield is stacked; Bruno Fernandes is one of the best midfielders in Europe and Bernardo Silva enjoys a more attacking role for the national team. Joao Palhinha is an underrated defensive midfielder, while Ruben Dias runs the back line no matter who is asked to play alongside him, and Portugal have no shortage in options off the bench.
Portugal are strong favorites to win their group and if that happens, their route to the finals in the bracket is manageable. I think they'd be favored in a likely matchup against the Netherlands in the quarterfinals, with a potential semi-finals matchup against Germany.
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More Euro 2024 Content
Projected Lineups & Odds
Corner, Set Piece and Penalty Takers
Bracket Breakdown & Staff Predictions
Top Five Sleepers & Dark Horses
Team of the Tournament & Best Starting XI
Top 150 Fantasy Football Rankings & Cheat Sheet
Longshot: Croatia +4400 (FanDuel)
I want to bet a few longshots and I have a soft spot for Croatia. They're an experienced squad and a difficult team to eliminate. Croatia narrowly lost the UEFA Nations League final to Spain in penalties after 120 minutes of a 0-0 scoreless draw. Unfortunately, Croatia are in a strong Group B and are likely to advance as a third-place team, which would make for a treacherous route through the knockout rounds.
Top Goalscorer: Harry Kane +550 (DraftKings)
Longshot: Jude Bellingham +2400 (FanDuel) or Bukayo Saka +3500 (DraftKings)
I like getting exposure to England potentially making a deep run and even winning the Euros through the top goalscorer market. Historically, the top goalscorer has been on a team that makes it to the semifinals (Ronaldo was an exception to this in Euro 2020). England are in a fairly weak group and they will be strong favorites against Denmark, Slovenia and Serbia.
Only Kylian Mbappe has shorter odds to win the top goalscorer ahead of Kane. It's not surprising after Kane scored eight goals in qualifying. I don't mind taking a shot on Bellingham or Saka, either. Saka should start on the right wing for England and scored four goals in qualifying. Bellingham hasn't enjoyed much goalscoring form with the national team, but he's coming off an incredible campaign for Real Madrid which featured 23 goals in 38 starts.
UEFA Player of the Tournament: Toni Kroos +1800 (FanDuel)
The player of the tournament generally always goes to a player on the winning team, with 2016 being the exception (Antoine Griezmann won despite France losing the final to Portugal). I haven't mentioned the host nation Germany yet, but most sportsbooks have Germany around +550 to win the tournament in front of their home fans. I also think awards like player of the tournament depend highly on media perception. Kroos is retiring after Euro 2024 and just had one of his best seasons with Real Madrid, being a key player in their Champions League winning campaign.
Germany manager Julian Nagelsmann has repeatedly praised Kroos and insisted he will play a key role for the team. I don't think you need to be a goalscorer to win this award. Xavi and Iniesta have won recently for Spain and Gianluigi Donnarumma, a goalkeeper, won the award in Euro 2020. If Germany win and Kroos plays in most of their games, I think more than half the time he will be named player of the tournament. I think that makes him a pretty solid value at +1800.
Futures Betting Picks for Euro 2024
- France to win +380
- Portugal to win +800
- Croatia to win +4400
- Harry Kane Top Euros Goalscorer +550
- Jude Bellingham Top Goalscorer +2400
- Bukayo Saka Top Goalscorer +3500
- Toni Kroos Player of the Tournament +1800
