This article is part of our Ask the Shark series.
Old-time Yankees pitcher Lefty Gomez often remarked about his prowess, "I'd rather be lucky than good." It's a quote that sticks with me very much when playing DFS, as sometimes your success comes purely from an opportune turn of events. The most prevalent situation for this in soccer is when your punt play scores an unexpected goal.
Punt plays, at their core, are selections made for salary relief in order to pay up at other positions. You're hoping that the combination ends up with a higher point total than selecting two mid-priced players in a more balanced lineup construction. While you're still looking at cheap defenders or holding midfielders (positions typically having little upside on DraftKings) with the highest potential in their specific matchup, the expectation is always simply just a small handful of peripheral points. Anything more is a luxury. Anything more is fortuity. Even though you're obviously looking to put yourself in the best opportunity for that luck to hit when punting (ie. the cheap DM on a heavy favorite with a high goal total), fluke goals by these players are nearly impossible to predict or hinge on for consistent profit - unless you're clairvoyant.
This is important because being aware when your success or failure is due to luck versus skill is key when analyzing your DFS results. While it's quite likely a big GPP win can be chalked up to having one of these low-owned punts coming through for you in an already solid lineup, it
Old-time Yankees pitcher Lefty Gomez often remarked about his prowess, "I'd rather be lucky than good." It's a quote that sticks with me very much when playing DFS, as sometimes your success comes purely from an opportune turn of events. The most prevalent situation for this in soccer is when your punt play scores an unexpected goal.
Punt plays, at their core, are selections made for salary relief in order to pay up at other positions. You're hoping that the combination ends up with a higher point total than selecting two mid-priced players in a more balanced lineup construction. While you're still looking at cheap defenders or holding midfielders (positions typically having little upside on DraftKings) with the highest potential in their specific matchup, the expectation is always simply just a small handful of peripheral points. Anything more is a luxury. Anything more is fortuity. Even though you're obviously looking to put yourself in the best opportunity for that luck to hit when punting (ie. the cheap DM on a heavy favorite with a high goal total), fluke goals by these players are nearly impossible to predict or hinge on for consistent profit - unless you're clairvoyant.
This is important because being aware when your success or failure is due to luck versus skill is key when analyzing your DFS results. While it's quite likely a big GPP win can be chalked up to having one of these low-owned punts coming through for you in an already solid lineup, it shouldn't be the predominant way you're showing a profit. If you take out these types of results, are you still seeing a positive return on investment? Skilled players should, and if you're not, then maybe you need to reassess your play and process for long-term sustainability.
We'd all rather be lucky than good, but the former we can't control, while the latter we most definitely can. Focus on that. Onto this week's questions!
On FanDuel, do you prefer underdog away defenders (CBs) forced to play a lot of defense or home favorite attacking fullbacks? - Greg Harrington, @gharrington3
For those who may not be familiar with both platforms, FanDuel's scoring system for soccer is dramatically different than DraftKings. When additional defensive actions such as blocks and clearances accumulate the same points as similar attacking actions, it gives more value to players who are positioned centrally as well as those on underdog sides bunkering in. Although it may seem counter to traditional soccer instincts, this is why we often see defenders on lower table clubs as some of the highest-priced options.
Due to the sheer number of opportunities the defenders of a weaker side will have to block and clear shots, it will allow them to have a very safe floor on FanDuel. Be more inclined to play these types of defenders in your cash contests (50/50s, double-ups, etc.) as they consistently tend to score 15-20 points with ease. Typically, though, the conundrum is deciding on which defender on the weaker side to play. When in doubt, I suggest choosing the one who's more of a target on set pieces, for two reasons - he most likely will be man-marking the opposing forward (who will usually receive the most service from his teammates), and he also gives you a tad bit more upside for a goal on the attacking end. In any case, center-backs of this type on the same team can be very high variance and it's very difficult to predict the distribution of blocks and clearances between them.
Since crosses are not scored on FanDuel (as opposed to DraftKings giving 0.75 points per cross), fullbacks that push up into the attack often are not rewarded for this play unless it leads to a chance created, shot on target, assist or goal. For this reason, their floors are not as safe as central defenders, but their ceilings are still higher. Be more inclined to roster attacking fullbacks (usually for favored sides) in GPPs rather than cash contests, as their scoring is more boom or bust.
The best of both worlds, though, are wingbacks or two-way fullbacks. You will often see them deployed in 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 systems (and sometimes in a 4-3-3 with a narrow midfield three). Current examples of these types of defenders are Marcos Alonso, Danny Rose, Erik Pieters, Jose Holebas or Cedric Soares. While not having as completely safe of a floor as underdog center-backs, the formations give them endline-to-endline responsibilities on both sides of the ball. This allows you to accumulate a healthy numbers of defensive peripheral points while still having a ton of upside for a big score.
Similar to NFL DFS, is there a specific process for each position when it comes to selecting players? - Scott Sumner, @Sumner7Scott
Although I don't have too much experience in NFL DFS, I believe the same general rule of focusing on "targets" applies in soccer as it does to football. Regardless of the player's exact position, selecting ones who will have more opportunities in the match to score points is typically better than ones who will see fewer touches. In addition, the player's role in the team's system can be more important than his positional designation. Halfbacks and fullbacks are both "running backs" in football, yet one is vastly more valuable in DFS than the other. Similarly, central attacking midfielders and holding midfielders are both "midfielders" in soccer, yet they can be drastically different in value for DFS purposes. Don't focus on a player's raw position but how it relates to his team's formation and overall system of play.
On DraftKings, be more inclined to select players positioned wide in their team's formation, as each cross is rewarded with 0.75 points, and it's pretty tough geometrically to cross the ball from the center of the pitch. This is why midfielders playing as wingers and defenders playing as fullbacks are usually the safest plays to rack up fantasy points.
On FanDuel, focus on players who will be more active and/or close to the ball both offensively and defensively, as their scoring system includes and rewards more peripheral stats. Determining these exact players comes very much from the formation/system their team is playing for that match as well as their opponent's formation/system.
For instance, a single solitary defensive midfielder in a 4-5-1 formation will usually be the primary one responsible for breaking up an opponent's attack (therefore, more tackles & interceptions) as opposed to a similar formation that deploys two defensive midfielders for that shared role.
On the other side of the spectrum, if one team is playing a formation or system that will see them exploiting the wings as their primary method of attack (ie. many 4-3-3 setups), opposing wide players (wingers and fullbacks) may see many more opportunities for tackles, blocks and clearances than they would otherwise.
While looking at players' game logs will give you a good glimpse toward much of this type of information - especially if you're not as familiar with soccer tactics or the specific team's typical system of play - it is still of paramount importance to not only check the starting XIs when they're released an hour before match time, but the exact formations of those XIs as well. One small change in a team's tactical setup can make a fullback go from great DFS value to complete rubbish and vice-versa.
If you would like to submit a question for this weekly column, feel free to either post it in the comment section below, tweet it to me @blenderhd, or email me at jordan@fantasyflush.com.
Previous Articles
