DFS Soccer: Trying to Solve the Goalkeeper Conundrum

Choosing a goalkeeper in daily fantasy soccer has been a roller coaster this season, as keepers who put up big save numbers can overcome allowing three goals, while top-tier players at the position (or at least those we thought were in the top tier) can go through a match with his side dominating but they barely produce for fantasy managers because of one penalty goal allowed in the 88th minute. But just because it's felt like a dart throw each week doesn't mean we shouldn't try to figure out if there are any patterns or stats that can lead us in a better direction.

Picking a visiting goalkeeper at Manchester United has paid big dividends this season; just ask anyone who rostered Burnley's Tom Heaton during his 11-save clean sheet or Hull City's Eldin Jakupovic when he had a six-save shutout (both matches were scoreless draws). In fact, of Manchester United's 14 home matches this season, only one time did they score more goals than the opposing goalkeeper had saves, while one other time it was even. To go a bit further, half of this season's visiting goalkeepers at Old Trafford have scored at least 10 fantasy points on DraftKings (not including win points) and six of 14 have scored at least 20 fantasy points on FanDuel. Only once has a keeper scored negative points at Old Trafford, and that was back in Gameweek 6.

So, is it as simple as taking a visiting goalkeeper against a top club who's at home to get plenty of fantasy points? In a word: no.

Just as Manchester United have created plenty of goalkeeper fantasy points this season, Chelsea have done just the opposite. The Blues have scored the second-most goals this term, but they've taken the seventh-most shots while putting the sixth-most on target. Their goal-scoring has been particularly potent at home, as they've bagged 36 goals in 13 matches, while Manchester United have scored 20 in 14. As a result, the highest fantasy score by a visiting goalkeeper (not including wins) is Heaton (again), except his six fantasy points from making six saves but allowing three goals don't light the scoreboard on fire. The lone visiting keeper to win at Stamford Bridge this season is Simon Mignolet, who made two saves in a 2-1 victory, and even that didn't allow him to get to 10 fantasy points.

The five-point win bonus on DraftKings greatly affects the pricing of favored keepers, as they are usually the most expensive options for each slate, regardless of how many saves a keeper may make. On the flip side, because FanDuel doesn't reward any points for a win, goalkeepers who save a lot of shots end up being near the higher end of the pricing spectrum. We've already established that a visiting goalkeeper at Old Trafford usually provides a decent return (and they are usually lower priced on DraftKings), while keepers visiting Stamford Bridge tend not to make good plays on either site. So what other situations have paid off?

There are essentially two ways to look at a goalkeeper's prospects in any given week: does he regularly make a lot of saves or is he facing a side that forces a lot of saves?

Southampton presents an interesting situation, as starting keeper Fraser Forster has made only 46 saves this season, one of only three keepers to average fewer than two saves per 90 minutes (he's joined by Chelsea's Thibaut Courtois and Manchester United's David de Gea). However, playing Forster's opposing keeper has paid off for fantasy managers, as Southampton have forced the fourth-most saves this season (104), trailing only Manchester United (127), as mentioned above, Liverpool (116) and Tottenham (118). Interestingly, Southampton have forced more saves away from home, where you'd think they wouldn't attack as much. though it's fairly close. Given that, it almost doesn't matter when you take the opposing keeper other than he's probably cheaper when the match is at St. Mary's.

Of the 20 Premier League teams, four average more saves per 90 minutes at home than on the road: Arsenal (3.46 v. 2.64), Crystal Palace (3.36 v. 2.29), Hull City (4.43 v. 3.27) and Manchester United (2.14 v. 1.92). All other teams average more saves per game on the road, which makes sense because it's generally believed that teams attack less when they are away, but these four sides have produced the opposite.

On the flip side, there are five sides that have forced more saves away than at home: Hull City (1.93 v. 2.87), Leicester City (2.36 v. 2.64), Southampton (3.83 v. 3.87), Watford (2.43 v. 2.71) and West Ham (1.93 v. 2.29). Of the group, only Hull's difference is somewhat significant, which appears to create a positive situation for home keepers against Watford because they don't score a ton but can still force saves. Unfortunately, it's likely a pricier option.

Here's a breakdown of each team showing the saves they make, goals they allow, saves they force and goals they score:

Looking ahead to Gameweek 30, we see that Manchester United are hosting West Brom, which could make Ben Foster a worthwhile fantasy investment. Manchester United's save-forcing acumen was discussed before, but Foster also comes in with 96 saves, the second-most in the Premier League (Sunderland, Burnley and Hull all have more saves as a team, while Stoke have the same). Burnley's Heaton is in a prime spot, as he'll be facing Tottenham, who have forced the second-most saves this season, at Turf Moor, though they'll likely be without star striker Harry Kane. Of the two, both are likely to be cheaper options on DraftKings because they won't be favored in their matches, with the opposite likely occurring on FanDuel.

Is there a clear answer each week for which goalkeeper to pick? Of course not, but at least we can put ourselves in more informed positions.