This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 104 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 104 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) v. Roman Dolidze (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Vettori ($8,200), Dolidze ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Vettori (-165), Dolidze (+140)
This is a rematch of a March 2023 fight which Vettori won via unanimous decision.
Marvin has fought just one time since then, dropping a unanimous decision to Jared Cannonier in June 2023. He was scheduled to face Brendan Allen in April 2024 but withdrew and has been on the sidelines ever since. Vettori is closing in on nearly two years away, which makes you wonder if there will be some rust when he finally does step back into the Octagon on Saturday.
Dolidze has been far more active in that time period. He dropped a majority decision to Nassourdine Imavov on the heels of the first Vettori fight, but has since rebounded with unanimous decision win over Anthony Smith and a knockout of Kevin Holland. Roman will be 37 years of age this coming July, so it's imperative he fight as frequently as possible in the next little while if he hopes to climb the rankings.
At his best, Vettori has proven to be a high-volume striker with the ability to mix in takedowns when applicable. He landed 106 significant strikes over Dolidze the first time. In five-round fights against Cannonier, Paulo Costa, and Jack Hermansson, Vettori closed with 153, 190 and 164 significant strikes, respectively. Unlike most volume strikers, Marvin isn't reckless when it comes to his stand-up defense. He has strong striking skills and can really pour it on when he gets in a rhythm.
Dolidze definitely has more power. He tends to stalk his competition in hopes of landing one big shot that can end the fight. He can't come close to matching the speed, footwork and fluidity of Vettori, but he's absolutely the more dangerous man on a blow-by-blow basis.
The grappling in this fight figures to be a wash. Over the course of 15 minutes the first time around, Dolidze attempted the lone takedown of the fight, and it failed. There's no reason to expect anything different this time around.
My main concerns regarding Vettori are the time off and the fact he was obliterated by Cannonier his last time out to the tune of 241 significant strikes -- the most landed in a middleweight bout in UFC history -- and four takedowns. It was such a beating that the extended time off is probably a good thing.
My initial lean is that over the course of five rounds, Vettori simply outworks Dolidze again. Roman is at his best in slower-paced fights, and Marvin won't allow that to happen. That said, Dolidze is one of the very few underdogs on this card that is reasonably priced and has a chance to win. Be prepared. There's a ton of massive favorites, and you won't be able to fit most of them in your lineup. When you take that into consideration, I have plenty of time for Roman, even if he isn't going to be the pick.
THE PICK: Vettori
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Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Chidi Njokuani (24-10-0, 1NC) v. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (25-8-1)
DK Salaries: Njokuani ($7,800), Zaleski dos Santos ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Njokuani (+155), Zaleski dos Santos (-185)
Njokuani was a release candidate following a three-fight losing streak from September 2022 to August 2023, but the UFC granted him another chance, and he has since rebounded with back-to-back wins over soft competition in Rhys McKee (split decision) and Jared Gooden (unanimous decision). Chidi turned 36 years of age on New Year's Eve and has been a pro since November 2007. He had a long run in Bellator prior to his February 2022 UFC arrival.
Zaleski dos Santos has always been one of my favorite fighters despite middling results of late. He gives you an honest effort each and every time out, but that's only translated to a 3-2-1 mark in his past six bouts. Part of the issue for ZDS has been inactivity. He fought just once in 2021 before not competing at all in 2022. He has since returned with two bouts each in both 2023 and 2024. The Brazilian turned 38 years of age in November, so he's clearly approaching the finish line.
Chidi has legitimate power, even at his advanced age. A former professional kickboxer, 14 of his 24 professional wins are via knockout. That said, he has poor cardio, a questionable chin and zero means of generating secondary offense in terms of grappling, so it figures to be a tough night at the office for Njokuani if those power shots aren't landing.
The main advantage for ZDS in this fight figures to be in the durability department. He's been knocked out just once in 34 pro bouts, and we have seen him take multiple beatings in the past and keep on ticking. Now, durability isn't an attribute you want to bet on when it comes to an aging fighter, but he unquestionably has an edge over Chidi in that area.
The big issue for Zaleski dos Santos is how much size he's giving up. In what figures to be a striking battle, Chidi will enter with a four-inch edge in height and ridiculous seven-inch edge in reach. He's a massive welterweight at 6-foot-3, and ZDS is going to have to repeatedly crash the pocket and put himself in danger if he's to consistently damage Njokuani.
Again, Chidi is another reasonably priced underdog with a chance of winning. The vast majority of the dirt-cheap 'dogs listed below have zero chance of winning. So while I believe you have to side with the durability and cardio edge ZDS possesses, Njokuani is a reasonable play from a DraftKings standpoint.
THE PICK: Zaleski dos Santos
Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez (15-8-0) v. Kurt Holobaugh (22-8-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Hernandez ($8,600), Holobaugh ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Hernandez (-190), Holobaugh (+160)
Hernandez began his UFC run on short notice in early-2018 and proceeded to knock out Beneil Dariush (in 42 seconds) and take a unanimous decision from Olivier Aubin-Mercier in a span of less than five months. It's an incredible feat that doesn't get talked about enough. His results of late however have been... inconsistent. Hernandez is 2-4 in his past six bouts dating back to February 2022, and he probably would have been handed his walking papers had he not pulled out a split decision over Austin Hubbard last October. Now 32 years old, there's no real reason to expect any consistency from Hernandez on a fight-by-fight basis.
Holobaugh submitted Hubbard in August 2023 to win Season 31 of the Ultimate Fighter and earn a third stint in the UFC in the process. He fought twice in less than four months last year, dropping a unanimous decision to Trey Ogden and taking a unanimous decision from Kaynan Kruschewsky.
Kurt is nothing more than roster depth, especially at this stage of his career, but he does bring some things to the table. He's got a nice all-around offensive game, plenty of experience and excellent durability, having been finished just once in his entire career. He lacks ideal athleticism and explosiveness, but he's capable of pulling an upset if you don't show up ready to go.
Hernandez certainly has a massive edge in terms of power and explosiveness. He's going to be the much more dangerous fighter, particularly early on. Alex has always displayed below-average cardio and questionably fight IQ, so it's imperative Holobaugh weather the storm early on in hopes of making a charge in the latter stages of the fight.
I think the most likely scenario in this fight is that Hernandez's immense edge in terms of physical gifts wins out. Kurt is 38 years old. There won't be many improvements coming on a fight-by-fight basis.
That said, there's 13 fights on this card and some underdogs are going to come through somewhere. Hernandez is entirely untrustworthy and has been throughout his UFC run. This seems like a good time to make a stand.
Don't expect much, but I could see Holobaugh surviving some tough spots early on before capitalizing on a Hernandez mistake in the latter stages of the bout.
THE PICK: Holobaugh
Like this underdog suggestion? Try it out with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Heavyweight
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (12-1-0) v. Ryan Spann (22-10-0)
DK Salaries: Cortes-Acosta ($8,300), Spann ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Cortes-Acosta (-165), Spann (+140)
A member of the UFC roster for about 2.5 years now, Waldo-Acosta has been given a very favorable strength of schedule to date, and he's taken full advantage. He's 5-1 with the company, with four of the wins coming via decision and the best victory coming against Andrei Arlovski. The defeat was a unanimous decision loss to Marcos Rogerio de Lima. Waldo has very limited power for a big man, and his ceiling is limited as a result.
Regular readers of this column are likely aware I've never been a huge Spann supporter. The 33-year-old lost three in a row from March 2023 to April 2024. The UFC could have very easily cut its losses, but the company gave Spann another opportunity and managed to find the one guy in worse shape than he was, Ovince Saint Preux. Spann ended up submitting OSP 95 seconds in with a guillotine choke. I don't think the strong performance is a sign of things to come.
Cortes-Acosta does a pretty good job of fighting to his strengths. He's a stand-up guy that sticks to the outside in hopes of picking his opposition apart. He does very little brawling if he can help it, and even less grappling. He has just three career takedowns and they all came in his last fight against Robelis Despaigne, who is one of the worst wrestlers in the history of the heavyweight division. I don't expect Waldo to shoot on Spann.
I will admit that Spann usually wins via stoppage in the rare instances (of late) in which he emerges victorious. He's certainly more dangerous on the mat than Waldo, but he's not a strong wrestler, and I don't expect him to be able to hang out in top position without issue should he get the fight to the ground.
Working in Waldo's favor is the fact he has no durability issues, having never been finished in 13 professional bouts. I would put the odds of Spann outworking Cortes-Acosta over the course of 15 minutes and earning a decision in the process as pretty low.
This has a real chance to be one of the more boring heavyweight fights you'll ever see. In a division where most guys are all-action, these two prefer a more methodical approach.
I don't think either guy is going to help your DraftKings lineup much, although in terms of a straight pick, it has to be Cortes-Acosta. I'm just not a fan of what Spann brings to the table.
THE PICK: Cortes-Acosta
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Seungwoo Choi (11-7-0) v. Kevin Vallejos (14-1-0)
DK Salaries: Choi ($7,100), Vallejos ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Choi (+390), Vallejos (-520)
THE PICK: Vallejos
Bantamweight
Da'Mon Blackshear (15-7-1) v. Cody Gibson (22-10-0)
DK Salaries: Blackshear ($9,200), Gibson ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Blackshear (-455), Gibson (+350)
THE PICK: Blackshear
Bantamweight
Su Young You (14-3-0, 2NC) v. AJ Cunningham (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: You ($9,500), Cunningham ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: You (-625), Cunningham (+455)
THE PICK: You
Women's Strawweight
Stephanie Luciano (6-1-1) v. Sam Hughes (9-6-0)
DK Salaries: Luciano ($8,800), Hughes ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Luciano (-240), Hughes (+195)
THE PICK: Hughes
Light Heavyweight
Diyar Nurgozhay (10-0-0) v. Brendson Ribeiro (16-7-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Nurgozhay ($8,900), Ribeiro ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Nurgozhay (-355), Ribeiro (+280)
THE PICK: Nurgozhay
Bantamweight
Carlos Vera (11-4-0) v. Josias Musasa (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Vera ($6,800), Musasa ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Vera (+470), Musasa (-650)
THE PICK: Musasa
Flyweight
Daniel Barez (17-6-0) v. Andre Lima (10-0-0)
DK Salaries: Barez ($7,200), Lima ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Barez (+280), Lima (-355)
THE PICK: Lima
Women's Bantamweight
Josiane Nunes (10-3-0) v. Priscila Cachoeira (12-6-0)
DK Salaries: Nunes ($8,500), Cachoeira ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Nunes (-185), Cachoeira (+155)
THE PICK: Nunes
Women's Flyweight
Yuneisy Duben (6-0-0, 1NC) v. Carli Judice (3-2-0)
DK Salaries: Duben ($6,900), Judice ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Duben (+300), Judice (-380)
THE PICK: Judice
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 104 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
