This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Saudi Arabia DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Saudi Arabia takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $333k UFC Throwdown with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Robert Whittaker (26-7-0) v. Ikram Aliskerov (15-1-0)
DK Salaries: Whittaker ($8,400), Aliskerov ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Whittaker (-150), Aliskerov (+125)
Credit to all parties involved for making this one happen. Aliskerov accepted this fight about a week ago after a "violently ill" Khamzat Chimaev was forced to withdraw, and Whittaker accepted the opponent change without question.
Whittaker got back in the win column his last time out, taking a unanimous decision win over Paulo Costa in February on the heels of a shocking knockout loss to Dricus Du Plessis last July. Now, Dricus has since won the UFC Middleweight Championship, so the defeat certainly hasn't aged poorly, but I didn't think Rob looked all that great in the Costa fight, and it's certainly possible that at age 33 and with well over 30 pro fights under his belt, Whittaker is simply trending in the wrong direction at this stage of his career.
The sample size is extremely small, but Aliskerov has looked the part of a legitimate contender to date. He's won each of his first two UFC bouts over Warlley Alves and Phil Hawes via first-round knockout. The lone defeat of his professional career was, oddly enough, a knockout loss to Chimaev in 2019. I'm a believer in his talent, but we're yet to see him tested in the UFC against a quality opponent.
You can throw all the numbers regarding Aliskerov out the window because his entire run with the company has lasted a shade over four minutes. A former four-time world champion in sambo, Aliskerov looks like a legitimate all-around threat. The power is obviously for real. He has yet to attempt a takedown, or have a takedown attempted against him, because the Alves and Hawes bouts ended so quickly.
So, we have to look to Whittaker in an attempt to get a feel for this fight. Regular readers of this column know I've been a "Bobby Knuckles" supporter from the start, but something just feels off. His pace appears to have slowed just a bit. He's struggling to get his head off the center line, and when he is hit, isn't absorbing the shots as well as he did in his heyday. Whittaker has been fighting the best in the sport for more than a decade and still has plenty of gas left in the tank, but any slip in those areas is the potential difference between being a top-five guy or a legitimate title contender.
Backing Aliskerov in this fight is risky simply because we have never seen him against anyone even halfway decent. If Whittaker absolutely dominated him, I wouldn't be shocked. That said, I'm worried about Rob. There are just too many little nagging concerns in the back of my mind to get past. I think he's on the downslope of his career, and I think there's a chance Aliskerov is excellent. That's enough to get me to roll the dice on an uncomfortable underdog pick.
THE PICK: Aliskerov
Co-Main Event - Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich (18-2-0) v. Alexander Volkov (37-10-0)
DK Salaries: Pavlovich ($8,700), Volkov ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Pavlovich (-220), Volkov (+180)
Pavlovich won six straight fights via first-round knockout and was rewarded with an interim UFC Heavyweight Championship fight against Tom Aspinall at Madison Square Garden last November. He was knocked out in 69 seconds and would now appear to have a way to go to get back in title contention, even in a division that is extremely thin at the top.
Volkov, a personal favorite of mine, has won four of five, with his lone setback in that time being a first-round submission defeat to Aspinall. A former Bellator Heavyweight Champion, Volkov has had difficultly winning the "big" fight over the course of his UFC run, but he's been one of the more underrated guys in the division for years and has easily handled everyone except top-tier opposition.
The truth of the matter is that we've learned next to nothing about Pavlovich in his nearly six years with the company. He obviously has some of the best power in the sport today. He can't put any man on earth out in an instant. But each of his last nine fights have ended in Round 1. We really have no idea if his cardio is any good, and we really have zero idea if he can wrestle. He's only given up one takedown in the UFC, and that came in his first fight against Alistair Overreem, but his bouts end so quickly that no one has been able to try to go that route against him.
Volkov is 35 years old and has nearly 50 professional bouts under his belt. That's typically concerning, but he employs a style that should age extremely well. Checking in at a massive 6-foot-7, Volkov is a master of using his length and distance to his advantage. So many tall fighters never mastered that art, but Volkov excels at it. He's going to have an overwhelming technical edge over Pavlovich if he can survive the first few minutes.
Volkov is also the much more accomplished grappler. It's an area of his game I've always found underrated. He's by no means an offensive wrestler, averaging just 0.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he's displayed the ability to land one in key spots. With four submission wins on his resume, Volkov can earn a stoppage on the mat if the opportunity presents itself.
Sure, Pavlovich could go in there and knock Volkov out in seconds, but Alex has the much more accomplished all-around game, should have a cardio edge, and has been knocked out just twice in 47 professional fights. All that combined is enough to sway me in his direction.
THE PICK: Volkov
Welterweight
Kelvin Gastelum (18-9-0, 1NC) v. Daniel Rodriguez (17-4-0)
DK Salaries: Gastelum ($8,900), Rodriguez ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Gastelum (-250), Rodriguez (+205)
Gastelum continues to get notable fights despite the fact he is (checks notes) 2-6 in his past eight bouts dating back to April 2019. Now, those defeats have come against the likes of Israel Adesanya, Darren Till, Jack Hermansson, Whittaker, Jared Cannonie, and Sean Brady, all top-flight guys, but you are what your record says you are in this sport. Gastelum is closer to getting released at the moment than entering the title conversation.
Rodriguez has lost back-to-back fights via stoppage (Ian Garry, Neil Magny), so he's in no better immediate position. Prior to this recent skid, D-Rod emerged victorious in seven of his first eight UFC bouts. That said, as a 37-year-old, one-dimensional boxer, the victories were always going to dry up when the competition level increased.
Gastelum returned to welterweight following a long run at middleweight for the Brady fight. He lost via third-round submission. 170 pounds was always Kelvin's ideal home, but he had a ton of trouble making weight early in his career. Gastelum is always worth monitoring on the scale before backing him.
This is a fight between two guys who rely on their boxing and little else. Rodriguez, in particular, throws zero kicks and is perfectly content in a back-and-forth brawl. Those are the fights in which Kelvin tends to thrive.
Gastelum has a wrestling background, but has never used those skills with any consistency during the course of his UFC career. He could be handed his walking papers if he loses here, and grappling Rodriguez is easily the clearest path to victory, so if Kelvin is physically able to improve on his 0.96 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, now is the time.
I like Rodriguez, but his advanced age and inability to generate any secondary offense is a massive concern. As you get up there, the punches are going to come just a tad slower, and you're going to struggle to get your head off the center line just a bit more. Your durability is also likely to go in the wrong direction.
Kelvin is going to have to find a way to negate a four-inch height and three-inch reach disadvantage, but Rodriguez doesn't throw any kicks to help manage distance. The price tag seems high given Gastelum's recent struggles, but I think he's a better all-around fighter than Rodriguez and a better athlete.
THE PICK: Gastelum
Light Heavyweight
Johnny Walker (21-8-0, 1NC) v. Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0)
DK Salaries: Walker ($8,200), Oezdemir ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Walker (-115), Oezdemir (-105)
Walker has seen way too much of top contender Magomed Ankalaev of late. The two fought last October, with the bout ending in a no-contest after Walker got clipped with an illegal knee. The rematch came this past January, and Walker was crushed via knockout about halfway through Round 2. Johnny has some real talent, but his durability is a massive question mark. Five of his eight career losses have come via knockout.
I've never been a big Oezdmir guy. He's just 4-6 in his past ten fights dating back to January 2018. He's always handled lesser competition and been pounded by good opposition. Walker likely falls somewhere in the middle of those two camps.
There's zero doubt Walker is the more explosive fighter and has a significant edge in terms of pure power. He's also much bigger than Oezdemir and will enter with a four-inch edge in height and ridiculous seven-inch edge in reach. The latter is the key. Volkan is another guy that relies entirely on his striking game and has zero means of generating secondary offense. I could see him having a much more difficult time getting inside on his bigger opponent than Gastelum would have against Rodriguez, for example.
Neither man offers much of anything in terms of grappling, with both averaging less than a takedown per 15 minutes.
Everything here suggests Walker has to be the pick and he will be, but Volkan is a live underdog. Oezdemir's only theoretical strength, his striking skills, play directly into Johnny's greatest weakness, his lack of durability.
I wouldn't bet on it, but I could easily see Walker getting reckless -- his fight IQ is poor -- and allowing Oezdemir to clip him with a combination that turns his lights out. I'm nowhere near as confident in this outcome as I should be given Walker's edge in physical gifts.
THE PICK: Walker
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Sharaputdin Magomedov (12-0-0) v. Joilton Lutterbach (38-9-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Magomedov ($8,800), Lutterbach ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Magomedov (-245), Lutterback (+200)
THE PICK: Magomedov
Lightweight
Nasrat Haqparast (16-5-0) v. Jared Gordon (20-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Haqparast ($9,000), Gordon ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Haqparast (-240), Gordon (+195)
THE PICK: Haqparast
Welterweight
Rinat Fakhretdinov (21-1-1) v. Nicolas Dalby (23-4-1, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Fakhretdinov ($9,000), Dalby ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Fakhretdinov (-355), Dalby (+280)
THE PICK: Fakhretdinov
Bantamweight
Kyung Ho Kang (19-10-0, 1NC) v. Muin Gafurov (18-6-0)
DK Salaries: Kang ($7,700), Gafurov ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Kang (+130), Gafurov (-155)
THE PICK: Kang
Light Heavyweight
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (8-0-0) v. Brendson Ribeiro (15-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Gadzhiyasulov ($9,300), Ribeiro ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Gadzhiyasulov (-325), Ribeiro (+260)
THE PICK: Gadzhiyasulov
Bantamweight
Long Xiao (26-7-0) v. Chang Ho Lee (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Long ($8,300), Lee ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Long (-115), Lee (-105)
THE PICK: Lee
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Saudi Arabia with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
