This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 308 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC 308 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600k UFC 308 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Featherweight Championship
(C) Ilia Topuria (15-0-0) v. Max Holloway (26-7-0)
DK Salaries: Topuria ($8,800), Holloway ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Topuria (-240), Holloway (+195)
Entering with all of six UFC bouts under his belt at age 27, Topuria came out of seemingly nowhere to end the storied 145-pound title reign of Alexander Volkanovski in February. It was a brilliant performance that ended via second-round knockout. Prior to the Volk fight, Topuria's best victories with the company came against the likes of Josh Emmett and Bryce Mitchell. Both are quality opponents, but Volkanovski was on another level entirely, and Topuria passed the test with flying colors.
The biggest winner in all this -- other than the new champion -- is Holloway. Max had fought Volkanovski on three separate occasions and lost each. He would not be getting another title shot if Alex still held the belt, yet with the Topuria win, he's right back in the hunt. Max has more than done his part to earn another title shot, winning three in a row and five of his last six. His most recent triumph was a knockout of Justin Gaethje at lightweight in April.
Topuria has proven to be an exceptional all-around mixed martial artist. He has power, can wrestle and has proven able to take a punch. The last part figures to be key if he hopes to extend his title reign past one defense.
Outside of Volkanovski, Holloway has dominated most every featherweight he's faced. At 5-foot-11, he's one of the tallest guys in the division. He remains in pristine shape at age 32 and has some of the best cardio in the history of the sport. He's going to go out and try to put it on Topuria for 25 minutes. If Ilia survives, he'll deserve to retain his championship.
Max excels at using his length to his advantage. He boxes his opposition up from distance and is able to get out of the way before they return fire. It's absolutely worth noting that Topuria and Holloway have an identical 69-inch reach despite the fact Max is four inches taller.
Pure power is definitely on the side of the champion, as is the edge in grappling. Topuria averages 1.92 takedowns per 15 minutes. Holloway's takedown defense is an exceptional 84 percent. It doesn't happen often, but we've seen Max grounded at key times in the past. It could very easily come into play in a fight that I project to be considerably closer than the bettings odds would lead you to believe.
I gave serious consideration to picking Holloway outright but ultimately couldn't get there. Topuria is considerably younger and an elite talent. I think he has all the tools to remain at the top of the division for a long time. I expect a close, tightly-contested fight in which both men have their moments, but I'll ever so slightly take the champion to retain via decision. I think Holloway is going to put forth a much better effort than most expect.
THE PICK: Topuria
Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Robert Whittaker (27-7-0) v. Khamzat Chimaev (13-0-0)
DK Salaries: Whittaker ($7,500), Chimaev ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Whittaker (+200), Chimaev (-245)
These two were scheduled to headline a Saudi Arabia card in June. Chimaev withdrew due to being "violently ill." Whittaker agreed to remain on the card and fought Ikram Aliskerov, winning via knockout in less than two minutes.
The run Whittaker has been on over the past decade is something to behold. He's 15-3 in his last 18 bouts dating back to June 2014. The defeats over that stretch have come against Israel Adesanya (twice) and Dricus Du Plessis. I was quite deflated when Whittaker lost to Dricus last July, but he's rebounded with back-to-back wins over Aliskerov and Paulo Costa since. Plus, du Plessis is clearly better than I originally gave him credit for, so such a setback isn't such a big deal looking back on it.
Chimaev has been unstoppable with the UFC, winning each of his first seven fights with the company. Included in that stretch are wins over Kamaru Usman, Kevin Holland and Gilbert Burns. He's legitimately been one of the best middleweights in the world in recent years, but Khamzat has fought just seven times since July 2020. He'll be on the sidelines more than a year by the time he steps into the Octagon on Saturday. His physical abilities aren't in question, but Chimaev is going to have to fight a bit more frequently if he hopes to climb to the top of the 185-pound division.
Khamzat's wrestling figures to be the one true difference-maker in this fight. He's averaging 3.99 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's landed two-plus takedowns in each of his past three bouts. That said, Whittaker has always been an underrated grappler. He primarily relies on his striking, but his takedown defense is a stellar 82 percent. If Chimaev is able to ragdoll him for 15 minutes, I'll be impressed.
I'd like Rob a lot more in this fight if it was scheduled for five rounds. As explosive as Chimaev is, we've seen him gas out in a fairly significant way in the past. He looked lousy late in the Usman fight and was all but running on fumes at times against Burns. It may not burn him against Whittaker, but I don't trust his cardio in the least.
Still, I'm taking Whittaker to pull the upset. I'm very concerned Chimaev is simply going to pin him to the mat long enough to earn a decision, but I have supreme confidence that Rob is the better overall mixed martial artist, in addition to being the better conditioned athlete. If he's able to remain upright, I think he can do enough solid work with his hands to earn a big win.
THE PICK: Whittaker
Featherweight
Lerone Murphy (14-0-1) v. Dan Ige (18-8-0)
DK Salaries: Murphy ($8,900), Ige ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Murphy (-250), Ige (+205)
This fight was scheduled to take place in February before Murphy withdrew due to injury.
We last saw Ige in late-June, at which point he was literally getting off of his couch a couple hours prior to a catchweight bout with Diego Lopes. He replaced Brian Ortega that evening and showed well despite the defeat. Ige got better as the fight progressed, which is crazy to say considering his lack of preparation for a fringe top-five featherweight. We have plenty of evidence to suggest Ige isn't on the same level as the top guys at 145 pounds, but he's tough as nails and more than capable of giving each of them a go on any given night.
Murphy began his UFC run with a split decision draw back in September 2019. He's won six straight since, including a victory over Edson Barboza in his first main event in May. Like Chimaev, the main knock on Lerone is that he hasn't fought much. He was on the sidelines from October 2021 to March 2023. I think he's a legitimate talent, but I'd like to see a prolonged run of success against better competition before fully investing.
Ige's downfall has always been that his offensive arsenal is pretty one-dimensional. He has very fast hands and is super tough, but he lacks power and has exhibited very poor takedown defense at times. He tends to throw very few kicks. We have seen countless fighters with this skill set age poorly in recent years. I'm a believer in both Ige's work ethic and his team at Xtreme Couture in Vegas, but he would be the exception to the rule if he has continued long-term success in a loaded featherweight division.
Murphy lacks one single elite physical gift to fall back upon in the event of trouble, but he's proven to be remarkably well rounded. He lands at a very high rate (5.01 significant strikes per minute) and seemingly never gets hit (2.60 significant strikes absorbed per minute). He's also landed at least three takedowns in each of his last two bouts.
Ige can remain competitive here if Murphy is willing to engage him in a boxing match, but I seriously doubt Lerone goes that route. He proven against both Barboza and Josh Culibao that he's willing to go to his grappling if that's the clearest path to victory, and that's unquestionably the case against Ige.
I have enough respect for Dan that I think he'll remain fairly competitive in a fight that sees the final bell, but I like Murphy here.
THE PICK: Murphy
Light Heavyweight
Magomed Ankalaev (19-1-1, 1NC) v. Aleksandar Rakic (14-4-0)
DK Salaries: Ankalaev ($9,400), Rakic ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Ankalaev (-375), Rakic (+295)
It's quite apparent at this point that Ankalaev is an easy top-three light heavyweight. He was submitted by Paul Craig in his UFC debut back in March 2018 and is since unbeaten in his last dozen fights (10-0-1, 1NC). Ankalaev should have been the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion back in December 2022, but his fight with Jan Blachowicz was ruled a split draw. My guess is he again fights for a title his next time out if he can get past Rakic in impressive fashion.
Rakic is a tough guy to get a read on. He's lost two in a row, both technically via TKO, but one was the result of a torn ACL against Blachowicz, and the other was at the hands of Jiri Prochazka in April. You can't exactly hold either result against him. That said, his best UFC victories are over the likes of Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos. He's a solid fighter, but I'm not sure his ceiling is all that high.
If you created a light heavyweight fighter in a lab, it would look at lot like Ankalaev. He has power, can grapple in a pinch, and has exhibited solid cardio for a big guy. My biggest complaint is that he absorbs a few too many big shots on the feet at times, but he's never been knocked out in 20+ professional fights, so it's not as if I can say it's hurting him.
On the other hand, I'm still trying to figure out what exactly Rakic excels at. He had a ton of knockout wins on the regional scene, but that power hasn't carried over to the UFC, at least against halfway decent competition.
He's also not a big volume guy, landing 75-plus significant strikes just once in his past seven fights. None of this is to say Rakic isn't plenty capable, but with Ankalaev, you're talking about the top of the food chain at 205 pounds. I simply think there's a gap between these two.
Rakic's best chance of victory is to use his three-inch reach edge to his advantage. He needs to try to stay on the outside and damage Ankalev from distance. It sounds great on paper, but I doubt Magomed allows it to happen.
Ankalaev is very good at crashing the pocket and making his opposition uncomfortable.
Any Rakic victory will likely have to come via knockout. It's not impossible, but given that Ankalaev has never been stopped via strikes in his pro career, it's not something I'd be betting on.
THE PICK: Ankalaev
Middleweight
Shara Magomedov (14-0-0) v. Armen Petrosyan (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: Magomedov ($8,600), Petrosyan ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Magomedov (-170), Petrosyan (+140)
This will be Magomedov's fourth fight with the UFC in almost exactly a year with the company. Quite honestly, I haven't been all that impressed with what I've seen despite the perfect 3-0 record. Yes, Magomedov has power, but he appears overly reckless on the feet. It hasn't burnt him thus far because he's been facing lower-level competition, but I imagine it will be an issue down the line. I'm also not sure if he'll be able to get a fight in the United States because I have my doubts that any state commissions will license him to due his permanent eye issue. Three of his four UFC fights have taken place in Abu Dhabi, while the other was in Riyadh. It's an interesting set of circumstances. At 30 years of age, he's not a kid.
Petrosyan is five fights deep into his UFC run, in addition to a victory on Dana White's Contender Series. He's 3-2, with a unanimous decision defeat to Caio Borralho (perfectly understandable) and a submission loss to Rodolfo Vieira on his resume. The Vieira fight was the most recent and was concerning. Armen would have likely dominated that bout on the feet, but he gave up three takedowns in the opening round before tapping out with a dozen seconds left to go in the frame.
I'm not the least bit surprised that the UFC has chosen to have this fight open the main card. Both these guys are one-dimensional brawlers with zero grappling game to speak of.
Magomedov and Petrosyan can both put up a ton of volume on the feet. Shara has landed 97, 82, and 113 significant strikes in his three UFC bouts. Petrosyan has landed 89-plus on three separate occasions.
Armen should definitely have the edge in terms of technical striking skill. He does a much better job of defending himself on the feet, while Magomedov is just a wild man at all times.
I'm going to go back to the well and fade Shara Bullet once again. It hasn't worked out yet, but I think the process has been correct, and I think it's the way to go here. He's just too reckless and lacks secondary offensive skills. Armen may or may not be the guy to get the job done, but I'm confident sooner rather than later than someone is going to take advantage of Magomedov's shortcomings. The price feels generous, too.
THE PICK: Petrosyan
OTHER BOUTS
Welterweight
Geoff Neal (15-6-0) v. Rafael dos Anjos (32-16-0)
DK Salaries: Neal ($9,200), dos Anjos ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Neal (-325), dos Anjos (+260)
THE PICK: Neal
Lightweight
Mateusz Rebecki (19-2-0) v. Myktybek Orolbai (13-1-1)
DK Salaries: Rebecki ($9,100), Orolabai ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Rebecki (+235), Orolabai (-290)
THE PICK: Orolabai
Middleweight
Abus Magomedov (26-6-1) v. Brunno Ferreira (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: Magomedov ($8,400), Ferreira ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Magomedov (-150), Ferreira (+125)
THE PICK: Ferreira
Heavyweight
Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-5-0) v. Chris Barnett (23-8-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Nzechukwu (-550), Barnett (+440)
THE PICK: Nzechukwu
Bantamweight
Farid Basharat (12-0-0) v. Victor Hugo (25-4-0)
DK Salaries: Basharat ($9,600), Hugo ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Basharat (-650), Hugo (+470)
THE PICK: Basharat
Middleweight
Ismail Naurdiev (23-7-0) v. Bruno Silva (23-11-0)
DK Salaries: Naurdiev ($8,300), Silva ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Naurdiev (-150), Silva (+125)
THE PICK: Naurdiev
Welterweight
Rinat Fakhretdinov (22-1-1) v. Carlos Leal (21-5-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: N/A
THE PICK: Fakhretdinov
Light Heavyweight
Ibo Aslan (13-1-0) v. Raffael Cerqueira (11-0-0)
DK Salaries: Aslan ($8,200), Cerquiera ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Aslan (-120), Cerquiera (+100)
THE PICK: Cerquiera
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for [EVENT NAME] with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
