This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 307 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC 307 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600k UFC 307 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Light Heavyweight Championship
(C) Alex Pereira (11-2-0) v. Khalil Rountree (14-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Pereira ($9,600), Rountree ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Pereira (-520), Rountree (+390)
The current UFC Light Heavyweight and former UFC Middleweight champion, Pereira is arguably the biggest star in the sport at the moment. This will be his fifth straight fight at 205 pounds, and he's won each of the first four. Included in that stretch is a split decision win over Jan Blachowicz, two knockouts of Jiri Prochazk, and a knockout of Jamahal Hill. Pereira was immediately thrown in the deep end at light heavyweight and has handled the move masterfully.
In a perfect world, it would have been nice if the company could have come up with a bit better fight than this one, but at least Rountree enters red hot. He's won five in a row dating back to September 2021, including four via knockout. The issue is the level of competition he's been facing. Those previously mentioned five victories came over Anthony Smith, Chris Daukaus, Dustin Jacoby (split decision, which Rountree almost certainly lost and was gifted the win), Karl Roberson and Modestas Bukauskas.
Pereira's last eight fights have come against the three previously mentioned fighters, plus Israel Adesanya twice, and Sean Strickland. We now have years worth of evidence showing Alex is one of the best in the world. His resume backs it up. You can't say the same about Rountree, who lost three of four from November 2018 to January 2021 and appeared to be on his way to a release.
I will give Khalil credit. He keeps himself in excellent shape and the power is legitimate. He's lightyears better than the guys he has been beating up of late, and he's going to continue to roll if he is matched up against that level of competition.
The issue is that as he gets set to turn 35 years of age next February, I'm not sure what type of tricks he has in his bag to defeat elite opposition.
Rountree hasn't landed a single takedown in his UFC career. His takedown defense is a poor 58 percent. He doesn't have to worry about Pereira shooting on him, but Alex is huge and should be able to pin him up along the cage whenever he wants to, eliminating Rountree's ability to potentially land power shots.
Backing Khalil in this fight seems impossible. On top of the competition level faced and his inability to land any secondary forms of offense, Rountree is giving up three inches in both height and reach to Pereira. Sure, he has a chance to land a one-punch knockout, but that's true in every fight.
When push comes to shove, Rountree lands 3.84 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.18 per 60 seconds. Yes, he's looked better of late, but the reason I give him virtually no chance of winning is the same reason I rolled with Pereira over Prochazka in each of their two bouts -- you can't get into a slugfest with the bigger champion and expect to emerge victorious considering how hard he hits. You need to throw different looks at him, preferably ones that include grappling. Rountree doesn't bring that to the table. This is an easy pick.
THE PICK: Pereira
Co-Main Event - Women's Bantamweight Championship
(C) Raquel Pennington (16-9-0) v. Julianna Pena (12-5-0)
DK Salaries: Pennington ($8,400), Pena ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Pennington (-175), Pena (+145)
A quick history of how we got here.
Pena stunned Amanda Nunes for the UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship back in December 2021. Nunes got her rematch about seven months later and dominated in taking the belt back. A third bout between the two was scheduled for June 2023, but Pena got hurt. Nunes stayed on the card, crushed Irene Aldana, then retired. That left the title vacant, at which point Pennington defeated Mayra Bueno Silva this past January to win the belt in a fight which lacked excitement, to say the least. Got all that?
There's a real case to be made that Pennington is the most unlikely champion in UFC history. Now 36 years old and a below-average athlete with zero power, "Rocky" has won six in a row dating back to June 2020, but five of the six have come via decision, and the best win in that stretch was probably Macy Chiasson. Pennington went 6-5 in her first 11 UFC bouts before this recent run, so consider me skeptical that any of this is sustainable once she begins facing better opposition.
The Pena win over Nunes always felt like a fluke. Amanda had nothing that night and seemed shockingly content, even happy, to see an opponent succeed. Once she floored the gas pedal in the rematch, Pena was done. Julianna missed a ton of time over the years due to injury, in addition to the birth of her child. While I imagine she has enough to get past Pennington, she also doesn't seem like a champion that will be able to survive multiple title defenses as long as the competition level she faces is halfway decent.
Pennington's two greatest attributes are that she's been around forever and she's tough. She lacks technical skill, but she's really good in a brawl because she's too tough for her own good. Raquel won the title because she outworked Bueno Silva. She didn't beat her up all that badly, and she gave up three takedowns for nearly nine minutes worth of control time. But she kept coming, and that ended up being enough to emerge victorious. That isn't going to be enough against better opponents.
Pena is a better wrestler and a better athlete. She offers more on the mat and has more ways to win than Bueno Silva. That said, landing just 3.16 significant strikes per minute isn't going to cut it. Julianna needs to up the volume to win here.
I believed I picked Pennington over Bueno Silva because I thought the line was too wide and the gap between the two was minuscule. I feel differently here because I think Pena is the more physically gifted fighter, making her the easy pick. That said, she needs to show up ready to work for 25 minutes. Pennington isn't going to go away, and Julianna is going to need to put the effort in to emerge victorious.
THE PICK: Pena
Bantamweight
Jose Aldo (32-8-0) v. Mario Bautista (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Aldo ($7,700), Bautista ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Aldo (+120), Bautista (-140)
Aldo came out of retirement in May, fighting for the first time in nearly two years. There were no rumblings of a possible return prior to the announcement of the bout, and it felt at the time as if he was thrown on the card in hopes of spiking the buy rate in his native Brazil. Despite that, Aldo looked excellent, taking a unanimous decision from a solid young opponent in Jonathan Martinez. He'll fill a similar role here against Bautista.
Bautista has won six in a row dating back to February 2022, including three via submission, so he's earned a step up in competition. The first four wins came over lesser opponents, but the last two were over Ricky Simon and Da'Mon Blackshear, a pair of rock-solid competitors. Getting elite coaching every single day with coach John Crouch and the crew at the MMA Lab in Arizona, Bautista will find himself in the top-10 of a loaded bantamweight division if he can get by Aldo.
Everyone is well aware of Aldo's stand-up skills. He's been one of the best in the world in the department for seemingly ever. Martinez was no slouch in that discipline himself, but Jose finished with a 77-52 edge in significant strikes landed in their bout, an extremely impressive number considering one would think his hand and foot speed would be one of the first things to go at age 38.
Bautista represents a different type of challenge. He's far more reckless on the feet -- a wild brawler. He lands 5.69 significant strikes per minute, which is an elite number by any measure. That said, the vast majority of his opposition have lacked technical striking skills. Aldo has been doing this a long time. He's not going to sit back and allow Mario to try to overwhelm him with volume. He'll return fire, and he'll do so in a far more technical manner.
Mario is the more likely of the two to wrestle, averaging 2.25 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Aldo's takedown defense (91 percent) is legendary. Again, that's something that could very easily slip at Jose's advanced age, but it's difficult to say that will happen until we get visual confirmation.
Bautista as a slight favorite feels correct. He's younger and enters on a heater. That said, I'm viewing this as similar to the Martinez fight. It's a pick 'em, and Aldo showed he has plenty of gas left in the tank. I'll take the slight plus money in what feels like a close, 15-minute decision.
THE PICK: Aldo
Women's Bantamweight
Ketlen Vieira (14-3-0) v. Kayla Harrison (17-1-0)
DK Salaries: Vieira ($6,400), Harrison ($9,800)
Vegas Odds: Vieira (+550), Harrison (-800)
With all due respect to Vieira, who has had some nice performances in the UFC, this appears to be all about building up Harrison and thrusting her into a title shot against the Pennington v. Pena winner, at which point she would be a monumental favorite over either.
Vieira is 4-2 in her past six bouts. Her defeats during that stretch were a split decision to Pennington and a unanimous decision to Yana Santos in which she missed weight by two pounds. The wins were over Panne Kianzad (unanimous), Holly Holm (split) and Miesha Tate (unanimous). Nine of Ketlen's 11 UFC bouts have gone the distance. To win this fight, she would appear to have to outlast Kayla in a decision, which seems highly unlikely.
A former two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo, Harrison is 34 years of age. She has 18 professional MMA fights under her belt, but nearly all of them have come against below-average competition. Her UFC, and bantamweight debut, was a whitewashing of Holm via second-round submission at UFC 300 in April. Her lone loss came in a $1,000,000 PFL championship fight against Larissa Pacheco in November 2022. Arguably the strongest pound-for-pound woman in the sport today, Kayla possesses elite physical gifts.
Harrison is a work in progress on the feet. We saw that in her loss to Pacheco. She wants to close the distance and grind on her opposition. Her combination of skill and strength allows her to outmuscle and dominate any opponent at the point of attack.
There's not much to say here regarding a potential Vieira upset from a technical standpoint. Her path to victory would be to stuff Harrison's takedown attempts and beat her up on the feet, but Ketlen lands just 3.04 significant strikes per minute. I don't think there's any chance she is able to remain upright, and if she does, I don't think she has the requisite skill set to pull a potential upset.
Dropping $9,800 of your budget on one fighter is super risky, but there's a real chance Harrison pays off. This figures to be a rout from start to finish.
THE PICK: Harrison
Middleweight
Roman Dolidze (13-3-0) v. Kevin Holland (26-11-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Dolidze ($7,900), Holland ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Dolidze (+135), Holland (-160)
The was supposed to be Holland and Chris Curtis, but the latter withdrew, and Dolidze agreed to step in about six weeks ago.
Constantly willing to fight the best in the world, often on short notice, Holland is just 3-4 in his past seven bouts dating back to September 2022. He rebounded from back-to-back defeats to submit Michal Oleksiejczuk in June, but it's worth noting that Oleksiejczuk was by far the weakest opponent he's faced during the previously mentioned stretch. Set to turn 32 years of age in November, Holland would be better off being more selective with his fight selections to make sure he has a full training camp under his belt, but he simply doesn't seem to be wired that way.
Like Holland, Dolidze rebounded from a two-fight losing streak to pick up a win his last time out. Roman accepted that fight at light heavyweight and took a unanimous decision from Anthony Smith. Going 15 minutes with Smith at this stage of his career isn't a great sign, but I'm willing to give Dolidze a pass given it was in a new weight class. He'll be back down at 185 pounds for this one.
Roman definitely has more pure knockout power, but a deeper dive into the numbers reveal some concerns. He doesn't land much volume (3.13 significant strikes per minute). He can mix in a takedown here and there (1.26 per 15 minutes), but his takedown defense (33 percent is awful). Holland certainly isn't known for his wrestling, but we've seen him pick up a few takedowns in key spots, mostly against strikers. I would say that's firmly in play in this one.
Dolidze landed 100 significant strikes against Smith. Prior to that, he'd never landed more than 71 in his prior nine UFC bouts. In 2021 fights against Laureano Staropoli and Trevin Giles, he landed 14 and 32 significant strikes respectively over the course of 15 minutes. He's not active from top position in the rare instances in which he grapples, and he's giving up plenty of speed and quickness to Holland.
Then there's the fact Holland is an inch taller with a five-inch reach edge. Kevin does an excellent job of fighting from distance and maintaining space between and his opponent. Not only will Dolidze have to consistently get inside, which is no guarantee, he'll have to up his output in those instances in order to take a decision.
Could it happen? Sure, but I'd argue the more likely scenario is Holland playing things safe at distance, outworking Dolidze on the feet, and maybe mixing in a takedown at a key time in order to take a decision.
THE PICK: Holland
OTHER BOUTS
Welterweight
Stephen Thompson (17-7-1) v. Joaquin Buckley (19-6-0)
DK Salaries: Thompson ($7,400), Thompson ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Thompson (+170), Buckley (-205)
THE PICK: Thompson
Women's Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez (17-4-2) v. Iasmin Lucindo (16-5-0)
DK Salaries: Rodriguez ($7,600), Lucindo ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (+145), Lucindo (-175)
THE PICK: Lucindo
Middleweight
Cesar Almeida (5-1-0) v. Ihor Potieria (20-6-0)
DK Salaries: Almeida ($9,400), Potieria ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Almeida (-395), Potieria (+310)
THE PICK: Almeida
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Spann (21-10-0) v. Ovince Saint Preux (27-17-0)
DK Salaries: Spann ($9,200), Saint Preux ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Spann (-345), Saint Preux (+275)
THE PICK: Saint Preux
Women's Strawweight
Carla Esparza (20-7-0) v. Tecia Pennington (13-7-0)
DK Salaries: Esparza ($7,500), Pennington ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Esparza (+155), Pennington (-185)
THE PICK: Pennington
Welterweight
Court McGee (22-13-0) v. Tim Means (33-16-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: McGee ($7,200), Means ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: McGee (+185), Means (-225)
THE PICK: Means
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 307 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
