This article is part of our The Man Advantage series.
In the the cap era, the average difference in conversion rate between the top and bottom team is 11.1 percent, with 8.1 percent being the lowest (2011-12) and 13.4 percent being the highest (2013-14). Through the 2019 All-Star break, the difference between the first-place Lightning and last-place Habs is 16.5 percent, the widest gulf ever, and nearly five percentage points higher than the average difference.
It's not that the Habs' power play is exceptionally poor – five other teams have had worse rates in the cap era – but more that the Lightning's power play is exceptional, nearly three percent better than its closest competitor. The league average of 20.0 percent is slightly behind last season's 20.2 percent, so not every team's power play has benefitted from smaller goalie equipment and a deep talent pool. Will the Lightning power play take a step back? Will the Habs power play improve? If 2018-19 is the outlier then it's logical to believe so, otherwise it might be the start of a new trend.
HOT POWER PLAYS
Chicago Blackhawks
A horrendous power play that threatened Stan Bowman to throw a grenade at the roster has been excellent since Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Strome joined the top unit, and for the first time this season it's operating at better than 20 percent efficiency. They went 7-for-16 despite losing five games in a row and scored both goals on the power play in a 3-2 shootout win against the Islanders before the break. It makes
In the the cap era, the average difference in conversion rate between the top and bottom team is 11.1 percent, with 8.1 percent being the lowest (2011-12) and 13.4 percent being the highest (2013-14). Through the 2019 All-Star break, the difference between the first-place Lightning and last-place Habs is 16.5 percent, the widest gulf ever, and nearly five percentage points higher than the average difference.
It's not that the Habs' power play is exceptionally poor – five other teams have had worse rates in the cap era – but more that the Lightning's power play is exceptional, nearly three percent better than its closest competitor. The league average of 20.0 percent is slightly behind last season's 20.2 percent, so not every team's power play has benefitted from smaller goalie equipment and a deep talent pool. Will the Lightning power play take a step back? Will the Habs power play improve? If 2018-19 is the outlier then it's logical to believe so, otherwise it might be the start of a new trend.
HOT POWER PLAYS
Chicago Blackhawks
A horrendous power play that threatened Stan Bowman to throw a grenade at the roster has been excellent since Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Strome joined the top unit, and for the first time this season it's operating at better than 20 percent efficiency. They went 7-for-16 despite losing five games in a row and scored both goals on the power play in a 3-2 shootout win against the Islanders before the break. It makes sense that having two duos of premier offensive weapons would produce an effective power play, but the role of the quarterback is still in flux. It's Erik Gustafsson's spot at the moment and he's turning into quite a power-play specialist – creative and effective on offense but ineffective on defense, with backward skating serving as his best skill. At 26, he's not a long-term option, but he can be effective in the short-term, making him an astute second-half pickup in fantasy leagues. Henrik Jokiharju, Adam Boqvist or Gustav Forsling could take Gustafsson's spot, but realistically none is ready for that role full time just yet.
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche are definitely going to tail off in the second half. They lack quality defensemen, consistent goaltending, overall experience and they're still a one-line team. Thanks to Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog, who have combined with nine power-play points in their last five games, the Avalanche power play ranks sixth in the league at 25.1 percent. In fact, you'd have to go back to Jan. 2 against the Sharks to see an Avalanche forward not named MacKinnon, Rantanen or Landeskog score on the power play. (It was Tyson Jost). The Avs are in a three-way tie for two wild-card spots and they will really need their power play to shine to separate themselves from the rest of the pack; over their next six games only the Jackets have a top-10 penalty kill.
Florida Panthers
The Panthers went 4-for-10 during their three-game winning streak heading into the break, with special teams being one of the team's brighter spots in a frustrating season. A dark-horse playoff candidate during the preseason, now that the Panthers are healthy they're in position to make a big run at the end of the season. Having Vincent Trocheck back in the lineup is huge, and combined with a red-hot Frank Vatrano and a good shooter in Aaron Ekblad, the Panthers now have two lethal power-play units. Each of the Panthers' four power-play goals recently were scored by a different player. It's a soft schedule with just one road game in their next 12 games. Yes, the NHL schedule is crazy this year.
COLD POWER PLAYS
Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers have won four of their past five in spite of their power play, which has gone 2-for-15 during that span. Their efficiency has plummeted to 29th in the league, and with the season already lost having replaced both their GM and coach, there doesn't seem to be an easy answer to their woes. Things are so bad on the blue line and they've lost so much confidence in their young defensemen that they've resorted to a five-forward unit, which is nice in theory, but few forwards can walk the blue line well and no team has consistently done it. Ivan Provorov and Shayne Gostisbehere have been fantasy busts this season, and Travis Sanheim is still too green for such a big role.
Toronto Maple Leafs
At their current rate, the Leafs will get just 204 power-play opportunities this season, which would be the lowest total since the NHL started tracking in 2009. From 2015 to 2018, Nazem Kadri was one of the league's best pests, second in the league with 82 penalties drawn. This season, he has drawn nine. Kadri's role hasn't changed much, not enough to explain the drop-off, and it's baffling how the skilled Leafs can draw so few penalties. If you gave them the league average of 151 opportunities, the Leafs would've scored six more power-play goals. The lack of opportunities can diminish their forwards' fantasy value, and so what may end up happening is a player such as Alex DeBrincat scoring more power-play goals than Auston Matthews (both have eight) by the end of the season even though Matthews is the better player.
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks should have enough talent to be better than 1-for-11 on the power play in their past five games. With Brock Boeser picking corners from the left and Elias Pettersson clapping bombs from right, the Canucks have one of the most promising 1-2 punches in the league. But it's a moot point if they can't even get the puck in the offensive zone, no thanks to the turnover-prone Derrick Pouliot, aging Alex Edler, and a second unit featuring players known more for their penalty killing. Their goaltending has helped win them games lately, but with a four-game road trip coming up they'll need that power play to click.
