Major Power Rankings: PGA Championship

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Updated on August 7, 2018 12:37PM EST

Below are our 2018 PGA Championship rankings. This list is geared toward winner-take-all leagues and leagues that reward the lowest aggregate score, but it can serve other leagues as well, no matter the nuances. Check the comments section for golfers who are scratched.

FAVORITES

1. Dustin Johnson
Even though Johnson still sits on one career major, he's the top player in the world, comes in on form with two wins in his last five starts and has a decent history at the PGA. Sure, the course is different every year, but they tend to largely be straightforward and long, and that's Bellerive. Johnson has four top-10s in eight PGA starts, plus T13 last year at Quail Hollow, which played 7,600 yards, par-71.

2. Justin Thomas
As we saw last year at Quail Hollow and last week at Firestone, long and straightforward tracks are in Thomas' wheelhouse. If the trunk-slam at Carnoustie was swaying you, the Sunday's trophy hoist should get you, and Thomas, back on track.

3. Brooks Koepka
Koepka hadn't done much since winning his second straight U.S. Open almost two months ago, but that's partly to be expected. He's got a knack for the PGA, though, with two top-15s in each of the past four years, two of them being top-5s. And speaking of top-5s, did you see Koepka's very quiet top-5 at Firestone?

4. Rory McIlroy
A two-time PGA winner, McIlroy has not been back in the top-15 since his 2014 victory. But – and try to

FAVORITES

4. Rory McIlroy
A two-time PGA winner, McIlroy has not been back in the top-15 since his 2014 victory. But – and try to get this past Sunday out of your head – he's playing really well right now. McIlroy hasn't won since Bay Hill in March, but he was T5 at the Masters, co-runner-up at the Open Championship and was in the mix at the Bridgestone almost till the end.

5. Jason Day
Day won the PGA in 2015 for his lone major. He followed that up with a runner-up in 2016 and even a tie for ninth last year, when his game was far from optimum. Deep bunkers are one of the primary obstacles at Bellerive, and Day is second on Tour in sand save percentage. Day was top-20 at the Masters and Open Championship, top-5 at The Players. And of course he two wins this season – at Torrey Pines and Quail Hollow, two very long tracks. We almost moved him higher, but he's not been driving the ball well, and that's a must this week.

6. Jordan Spieth
We're now into the second year of Spieth's worldwide winless stretch, with 2017 at Royal Birkdale his last triumph. He tends to do well in bigger events, though to be candid the PGA has probably been his worst major. In five starts, Spieth was runner-up in 2015 but otherwise doesn't have a top-10 and even missed two cuts. There's just something about the name "Jordan Spieth" that makes us wary about slotting this guy too low.

7. Rickie Fowler
Here we go again. Best player to have never won a major ... next birthday will be his 30th ... has to happen soon, right? It's exhausting writing the same thing every major, but imagine how Fowler feels answering the same questions for the past five years. He's come close at the PGA, with top-5s in two of the past four years.

8. Patrick Reed
Reed is more than a year younger than Fowler, which seems odd. Fowler is so youthful .. and major-less. But Reed has one, at the Masters earlier this year, and almost had a second, finishing runner-up to Thomas last year at the PGA. As we've said ad nauseam throughout the past few years, Reed plays a lot of golf. Besides the Open Championship and WGC-Bridgestone, which all the top guys play, he also played two recent European Tour events so this will be his fifth straight week of action in three different countries.

CONTENDERS

9. Tommy Fleetwood
Fleetwood faded out of the top-10 at Firestone, which, like Bellerive, should be perfect for his premier tee-to-green game. Fleetwood has been showing up on the first page of leaderboards regularly this year – T7 at The Players, solo second at the U.S. Open, T12 at the Open Championship (yes, Carnoustie had a very long first page). Fleetwood has never done squat at the PGA, with a T61 and two MCs in three visits. But that doesn't bother us. He's a different golfer this year.

10. Francesco Molinari
Molinari had an off-week, to say the least, at the Bridgestone. Completely expected. In fact, Molinari might be a bit low here. Besides his three wins and two runners-up in his past seven starts, the Italian was co-runner-up last year the PGA.

11. Jon Rahm
Rahm went into last week at Firestone with top-5s in three of his past five events. Great stuff, right? Except the other two results were missed cuts at two majors. Rahm surely hasn't played in a lot of majors – he's still only 23 – but he has only one top-25 in eight of them as a pro. That was T4 at the Masters earlier this year. Last year at the PGA: T58. And despite a decent week at Firestone, we don't feel comfortable listing Rahm higher. One of these majors, we're gonna be wrong. We just don't think it's right now.

12. Paul Casey
Casey was T13 at the PGA last year and T10 the year before. There's not a lot of flash to Casey's game, which should align nicely with not-a-lot-of-flash Bellerive. This will be Casey's fourth straight week of play, having gone to Hamburg the week after Carnoustie.

13. Justin Rose
Rose of course would've been much higher had he not withdrawn from the Bridgestone last week. There's no way of knowing where things stand with his wonky back. Since his win at Colonial in May, Rose has ripped off four consecutive top-10s, including co-runner-up at Carnoustie. He has three top-10s through the years at the PGA.

14. Henrik Stenson
Stenson withdrew from the Scottish Open with an elbow injury, finished out the top-25 the next week at Carnoustie and again was well off the pace last week at Firestone. The Swede hasn't said he's still hurting but it's hard to rank him higher without definitive info. It's even a gamble putting him here. Stenson has had three top-10s in the past five years at the PGA, but that can't be the primary consideration right now.

15. Tony Finau
This might be the first "Woh, what's he doing this high" moment. But Finau has top-10s in all three majors this year, so this might be even be a bit low. He was T10 at the Masters, solo fifth at the U.S. Open and T9 at the Open Championship. Plus Finau is coming off another top-10 at the Bridgestone.

16. Bryson DeChambeau
For a while there, DeChambeau was a mess. Since winning the Memorial, he had withdrawn from the John Deere with a shoulder injury that now seems completely in the past. He then made the cut but little else at Carnoustie. The following week at Hamburg, he was nearing another win before imploding – golf game and emotionally – to tumble into a tie for 13th. And he was awful on Thursday at Firestone. He could've mailed in the next three days of the no-cut event. Instead, he broke par every day.

17. Webb Simpson
Simpson is amid a sterling season, with top-20s in all three majors, not to mention a win at The Players. He's never done much in seven prior PGAs, missing three cuts with a best of T13 two years ago. Simpson is ranked third in sand saves.

18. Tiger Woods
Woods is back at the PGA for the first time in four years, and he's starting to play a lot of golf. This will be his third start in four weeks (and, after next week off, he's committed to the first two playoff events). Woods did similarly earlier this season, albeit in less-pressurized events, and completeed that stretch with a runner-up at the Valspar (he also went on to play the following week at Bay Hill, for four events in five weeks). Woods has won three PGAs, lastly in 2007.

19. Louis Oosthuizen
Oosthuizen has had a very quiet 2018. He withdrew from the Scottish Open, citing a neck injury, but he did manage a T28 at Carnoustie and was in the mix at Firestone until a Sunday fade. In his last 13 worldwide starts, he's missed three cuts but otherwise has been top-30 in all of them, including T24 at the Bridgestone. Oosthuizen was co-runner-up last year at the PGA, but that was his first-ever top-10 in the major. He's ranked fourth in sand saves.

20. Xander Schauffele
Schauffele has played all of six majors, yet he's been top-6 in three of them, including co-runner-up last month at Carnoustie. Schauffele missed the cut last year at the PGA, but that doesn't bother us, obviously. What bothers us more is his horrid week at Firestone, finishing 68th out of 71.

21. Matt Kuchar
Normally a cut-making machine, Kuchar missed three of four entering the no-cut Bridgestone, and we bet you have to back a decade to see the last time he did that. That said, Kuchar, turned in a solid week at Firestone with a T14. He has top-10s two of the past three years at the PGA, and five top-25s in his past eight PGAs.

22. Marc Leishman
Leishman doesn't have a top-10 in seven trips to the year's last major, but he did tie for 13th last year. Like a lot of guys, he was having a great Bridgestone till Sunday. The Aussie has a few top-10s since March, including runner-up at the Byron Nelson, but largely has underperformed in all the big events this year. Still, he's No. 18 in the world for a reason.

23. Phil Mickelson
Like Woods, Mickelson is always hard to slot. He has only one top-10 since in his drought-breaking win at the WGC-Mexico, and has done next to nothing in the first three majors and The Players. Since finishing as the runner-up at the 2014 PGA, Mickelson has gone T18-T33-MC there. So this ranking might be optimistic. Mickelson is seventh in sand saves, which is good because we could see him spending time in the Bellerive bunkers.

24. Patrick Cantlay
Cantlay has quietly moved inside the top-25 in the world. He followed up a T12 at Carnoustie with a T6 last week at Firestone. He played a few majors in 2011-12, then didn't get back till last year's PGA. Cantlay has a string of other good finishes of late: top-10s at the RBC Heritage and the Memorial, and T15 at the Travelers.

25. Zach Johnson
Johnson comes up large more than his share in big events, but sheer length seems to be the closest thing to kryptonite for his game. He hasn't had a top-25 at the PGA since a T8 in 2013. But he's had a good year at the majors, including T12 at the U.S. Open and T17 at the Open Championship. With a T17 at Firestone, he's riding five straight top-20s.

IN THE HUNT

26. Kyle Stanley
Stanley never plays well in majors, but why? He should. At least better than he's done. In 15 majors, Stanley's best is T39, on two occasions, both at the Open Championship. In theory, PGA Championship courses by and large should suit Stanley's game, just like last week at Firestone, where he finished solo in a world-class field. But in three PGA starts, three trunk-slams. We think Stanley can do better.

27. Branden Grace
The South African has shown flashes this season, with four worldwide top-10s. He hasn't great in the majors, though he was top-25 at the Masters and U.S. Open before missing the cut at Carnoustie. While Grace missed the cut at last year's PGA, he was T4 in 2016 and solo third the year before.

28. Alex Noren
Noren arrived at Firestone last week with top-25s in his six previous starts, including a win at the French Open. The PGA doesn't appear to be the prototype track for the Swede's game, and he's done nothing better than in this major than a T34 in his debut back in 2011. Noren finished outside the top-30 at Firestone, which has some similarities to Bellerive.

29. Tyrrell Hatton
Hatton has not had a great year, but it's been better of late. His tie for sixth at the U.S. Open triggered three straight top-16s before a T51 at Carnoustie, But he was pretty good at Firestone, landing in a tie for 28th. Hatton missed the cut last year the PGA, but was T10 the year before in T25 in 2015.

30. Sergio Garcia
Garcia has been dreadful of late and even worse at the PGA through the years. He's missed the last two cuts there. He's missed his last four cuts in majors. But he's still capable of great play, a great driver of the golf ball, and we saw a little bit of it through three rounds at Firestone before a 5-over 75 on Sunday.

31. Ian Poulter
Poulter has only two top-10s in 15 starts in the PGA, and he missed last year at Quail Hollow with an injury. But the veteran Englishman is certainly played well, seeing his world ranking climb to No. 31. He was in the lead for much of the week at the Bridgestone before he, like so many others, cratered on Sunday.

32. Bubba Watson
Watson is a real conundrum. He won at Riviera. He won the Match Play. He was top-5 at the Masters. He won the Travelers. He also missed the cut at the U.S., British and Canadian Opens. Maybe he just doesn't like national championships? In theory, Watson should do well at the PGA, where he has a great advantage with his length. But outside of a runner-up in 2010, he doesn't have a top-10. He was middle of the pack at the Bridgestone, tying for 31st.

33. Adam Scott
Scott has had flashes this year, including a T17 at Carnoustie and a T11 at The Players. Scott has a pretty darn good history at the PGA, with two top-10s and three more top-20s in the past seven years. But he managed only a T61 last year, and was not great last week at Firestone.

34. Keegan Bradley
Bradley is ranked only 65th in the world, so this is big jump. On the other hand, he was around 100th at the time of last year's PGA, so he's been playing some good golf. Bradley's tee-to-green game is so solid that he has the potential to do really well this week. He tied for 33rd last year at the PGA and of course was the champ in the pre-anchoring days of 2011.

35. Luke List
List has played only three career majors, two of them this year, so this may be overly aggressive. But he's No. 47 in the world, having jumped almost 100 spots since January, hits the ball a ton and usually pretty straight. He was second in strokes gained: off the tee at the Bridgestone and 19th in tee to green. List tied for 37th last month at Carnoustie for his first made cut in a major.

36. Thorbjorn Olesen
For the most part, Euro-centric pros don't fare well in the PGA, but Olesen has had some success. He tied for 44th last year and has three other top-40s, peaking at T27 in 2012. The 28-year-old Dane has been on a summer surge, beginning with his win at the Italian Open, then continuing with a runner-up at the BMW International, a T6 at the irish Open, T12 at the Open Championship and now a tie for third at Firestone. In DFS play, Olesen's long-shot price will be very popular.

37. Hideki Matsuyama
There's no way to parse it: This has been a horrible year for the former top-5 golfer. Still, Matsuyama had been showing some glimmers of recapturing his game until a triple on his 18th hole on Friday at Carnoustie cost him the weekend. Then he was all over the map, and the course, at Firestone. All that said, Matsuyama was top-5 the past two years the PGA.

38. Kevin Chappell
Chappell has the potential to go really low, such as his T6 last month at the Open Championship, or last year's T7 at the Masters. Carnoustie aside, he hasn't been at the top of his game for months. A missed cut wouldn't be a shocker. But he was also ninth in the Firestone field in strokes gained: tee to green.

39. Kevin Kisner
Kisner has two career top-10s in majors: last month's Open Championship (T2) and last year's PGA (T7). He was at the fore for much of the week at Quail Hollow after opening with twin 67s. Before Carnoustie, his game had been struggling, with only two prior top-10s all year, or else Kisner likely would've been ranked higher.

40. Gary Woodland
Bellerive shapes up as good fit for Woodland, who finally is getting his game to come around at the right time. He's made six straight cuts, three of them top-25s, including a T22 at the Canadian Open and last week's T17 at Firestone. Woodland tied for 22nd last year at the PGA, his best showing at a major in three years.

41. Joaquin Niemann
Since turning pro after the Masters, the 19-year-old Chilean has been a revelation, so much so that the PGA of America granted him an exemption into Bellerive. Niemann has four top-10s and two more top-25s in his 10 events since Augusta. Still, this might be overly optimistic for someone who's played in only two majors, none as a professional, and missed the cut in both.

42. Russell Henley
Henley was the hardest hit by Woods' charge at Carnoustie and he was bumped outside of the top 50 in the OWGR – and out of the Bridgestone. We think that will motivate him this week. He's done well against the world's elite this year, tying for 15th at the Masters and for 25th at the U.S, Open. He was T12 at the PGA in 2015 and T22 the year after.

43. Rafa Cabrera Bello
Cabrera-Bello is ranked 30th in the world. That doesn't guarantee anyone anything, however, and it's reflected in the Spaniard's major history. Outside of T4 at 2017 Open Championship, he doesn't have so much as a top-15 in his 20 other major starts. Cabrera-Bello's best at the PGA is a T29 in 2013. If you're looking for a piece of good news, he was a surprising T17 at Firestone.

44. Mark Fitzpatrick
The Englishman is still only 23 but has been around a few years already, with limited success outside of Europe. But he tied for 12th at the U.S. Open, his second best showing at a major after a T7 at the 2016 Masters that until now was quite the outlier. That remains his only top-10 on U.S. soil.

45. Russell Knox
Knox tied for 12th at the U.S. Open, snapping an ugly stretch of five straight trunk-slams in majors. Before that, he tied for 22nd at the 2016 PGA. More importantly, Knox has had a great summer, finishing second at the French Open before winning the Irish Open. Bellerive might be too long for the Scot to make a real dent, but he's more than capable of a top-40.

46. Brian Harman
Harman had his best year in the majors in 2017, tying for second at the U.S. Open and for 13th at the PGA, showing that a diminutive golfer can succeed on long tracks. Harman is ranked 33rd in the world, not far from where he's been for the past year or so. His season has been front-loaded with top-10s at the WGC-Mexico and the Match Play.

47. Ryan Moore
In his past 11 starts begining with Bay Hill in March, Moore has six top-16s, including a T12 at Carnoustie, yet somehow has fallen in the world rankings. He's now outside the top-70 but playing quite a bit better. Moore tied for 13th last year at the PGA, his best showing there in more than a decade. He did not qualify for Firestone.

48. Charley Hoffman
Hoffman has finished top-20 in six of the seven majors played over the past two years, and not many other golfers can say that. The one miss, however, was T48 at last year's PGA. But success at both Opens has been a part of Hoffman's strong late-summer run.

49. Thomas Pieters
Pieters has fallen from 36th in the world at the start of the world to outside the top-70 now, but has been playing better the past couple of months. He made six straight cuts, culminating with a T28 at Carnoustie.

50. Si Woo Kim
Kim has some wild swings in him, so his play any week is anybody's guess. His finished top-25 at the Masters, but had nothing inside the top-60 in The Players and next two majors. Then he spent some time on the first page of the leaderboard at Firestone last week, ending with a tie for 10th. This is clearly a risk/reward pick. At least he'll be cheap.

LONGSHOTS

51. Haotong Li

52. Byeong Hun An

53. Pat Perez

54. J.B. Holmes

55. Shane Lowry

56. Kevin Na

57. Adam Hadwin

58. Daniel Berger

59. Beau Hossler

60. Jimmy Walker

61. Emiliano Grillo