DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Olympic Men's Golf Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

Olympic Men's Golf

Location: Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, France
Course: Le Golf National (Albatros course)
Dates: Aug. 1-4 (men), Aug. 7-10 (women)
Yardage: 7,114 (men), 6,374 (women)
Par: 71 (men), 72 (women)
2021 winners: Xander Schauffele, Nelly Korda (Tokyo)

Tournament Preview

The PGA Tour season is winding down. But first, the Tour will take a one-week hiatus to allow for a limited-field, no-cut event. You know, just for a change of pace.

We kid, we kid! We love the Olympics!

This will be only the third Olympic golf tournament in the DFS era, so let's get right to the nuts and bolts. It's a regular ol' 72-hole, stroke-play event featuring 60 men with no cut. Not to get ahead of ourselves, but the International Golf Federation has already petitioned the International Olympic Committee for a format change featuring a men's and women's team competition -- think co-ed Ryder Cup -- to begin at the Los Angeles Games at Riviera in 2028.

That seems more like the Olympic spirit, right? But for now the men's tournament will begin on Thursday and the women, playing under the same format, will start on Aug. 7.

This will be the best field ever in the men's Olympic golf tournament. Everyone who is eligible and qualified will be in Paris. DraftKings will have games, so away we go.

Reigning gold medalist and recent Open Championship winner Xander Schauffele will headline the field. He will be joined by world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood and Hideki Matsuyama. Eight of the top 10 in the world rankings and 21 of the top 50 will be on hand. 

That's far better than eight years ago, when golf returned to the Games after more than a 100-year absence. Something called the Zika virus was going around in 2016, and a lot of golfers stayed home from Rio de Janeiro out of fear. Three years ago, after the COVID pandemic delayed the 2020 Summer Olympics by a year, the men's tournament was rocked almost on the eve of the Games when then world-No. 1 Rahm and No. 6 Bryson DeChambeau tested positive and were forced to withdraw.

So far, so good for Paris.

In all 32 countries will be represented (well, 31 plus Puerto Rico). The maximum number of golfers a country can have is four, and the U.S. is the only one with four -- Schauffele, Scheffler, Morikawa and Wyndham Clark. No other nation has more than two. As host, France automatically got two entrants -- Matthieu Pavon and Victor Perez. The Official Golf World Ranking system is used to determine the men's field.

Le Golf National should be familiar to not only Pavon and Perez but many of the golfers and many golf fans. It has played host to the French Open, a DP World Tour event, for three decades and also was site of the 2018 Ryder Cup. Three Europeans from that team are in these Olympics -- McIlroy, Rahm and Fleetwood, and they all won their 2018 singles matches -- but none of the 12 Americans are here. That's probably a good thing since the U.S. got boat-raced, 17 1/2-10 1/2.

At the French Open -- sponsored by FedEx beginning this October (we're not kidding) -- Fleetwood won in 2017, Alex Noren, representing  Sweden this week, won in 2018; and Guido Migliozzi, now representing Italy, won in 2022 thanks to a closing 62.

Le Golf National opened in 1990 and is a short course by PGA Tour standards, one that mandates accuracy more than distance. After all, there are 16 water hazards impacting 10 holes and 51 strategically placed links-like bunkers. The narrow fairways are undulated. The poa/Bentgrass greens are large at an average of almost 6,500 square feet. But they are complex, with undulations and Usain Bolt-like speed making it hard to hold your ball on the putting surfaces. Therefore, as we have seen from past French Opens, scrambling/Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green will be paramount, as will driving accuracy, greens in regulation and bogey avoidance, with some putting mixed in.

The tournament may very well be won on the difficult four-hole closing stretch, culminating with the 471-yard 18th. There's water all along the left on 18 and pot bunkers along the right, so hitting the ball straight there sounds like a good idea. 

So how should we go about formulating lineups? Well, much like a no-cut signature event. The first page of the leaderboard should be dominated by the top golfers, even more than in signature events since there are roughly 15-20 guys from far-off countries with virtually zero shot. In 2016, Justin Rose won gold followed by Henrik Stenson and Matt Kuchar. In 2021, It was Schauffele, then Rory Sabbatini memorably representing Slovakia and C.T. Pan, who won a seven-man playoff for the bronze medal that included McIlroy, Morikawa and Matsuyama. Unreal. Pan is back here again representing Chinese Tapei.

The saving grace in filling your lineup with a lesser golfer or two is that there is no cut, and you always have the chance they will get something going on the weekend. But identifying lesser golfers who will have a decent finish will be challenging, to say the least, and we wouldn't recommend more than one. With a balanced lineup, you will be denying yourself the likes of Scheffler, Schauffele and McIlroy, guys who are heavy favorites to win. We give an edge to the imbalanced roster to try to get one or even two guys you think can win into your six-man lineup.

As for the weather, the Paris area had one of its wettest years, according to the Official Golf Course Superintendents fact sheet, with nearly 23 inches of rain falling in the first six months of 2024. This week, the forecast calls for highs in the low-80s all four days, with the best chance of a little rain on Thursday and light to moderate wind all week. 

Key Stats to Winning at Le Golf National

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Bogey Avoidance

Past Champions

2021 - Xander Schauffele, United States (Tokyo)
2016 - Justin Rose, Britain (Rio de Janeiro)
1904 - George Lyon, Canada (St. Louis)
1900 - Charles Sands, United States (Paris)

Champion's Profile

We know a lot about the course. This should not be a birdie-fest. The average French Open winning the score the past five years has been 12-under: Ryo Hisatsune won last year at 14-under, Migliozzi in 2022 at a record 16-under, Nicolas Colsaerts in 2021 at 12-under, Noren in 2020 at 7-under and Fleetwood in 2019 at 12-under.

The course is not long but it is narrow. Keep the ball in the fairway and out of the water is Step 1 in succeeding this week. Even from the fairway, getting the ball to hold on the green will not be easy, because of undulations and the overall speed and complexities of the putting surfaces.

The last three winners of the French all finished top-7 in SG: Approach (Migliozzi ranked first) and also were top-5 in SG: Tee-to-Green. They were all in the top-20 in SG: Putting.

There are plenty of variables we won't be able to gauge in advance. We don't know how many of the golfers will handle the pressure of representing their country, even those who have played Ryder Cup and other international competitions.

The limited field greatly favors the best golfers.

The over/under on the winning score per golfodds.com was set at 270. 5, which is 13.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000+

Scottie Scheffler - $12,500 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +360) 
For all the talk of Scheffler's bad putting, he's ranked 90th on Tour this season. He's in the upper half among all golfers and is in positive strokes-gained territory, albeit barely. While putting should impact the tournament, there are other factors more integral to success, which is why Scheffler has to be here.

Xander Schauffele - $11,600 (+550) 
Schauffele has now emphatically answered the question whether he can win a major, and four years ago he also proved that playing for his country isn't too tall of a task (yeah, Ryder Cup, we know). If there's any concern this week, it's Schauffele's ability to keep his tee balls in the fairway. He's ranked 69th on Tour, but he'll be able to take his foot off the gas a bit on a shorter track.

Collin Morikawa - $10,200 (+1000) 
This is our favorite play among the five-figure guys. Morikawa combines a great skill set for Paris and the most friendly price. He ranks No. 1 overall in our model, which surprised even us. Morikawa is ranked top-6 in the field in every key stat over his past 24 rounds. That's almost unheard of.

$9,000-$9,900

Shane Lowry - $9,800 (+2500) 
Since it all starts with driving accuracy, a guy ranking 17th on the hardest tour in the world is a good place to start. And then Lowry is also 10th in SG: Approach. He's coming off a great Open Championship, shines playing for his country in Ryder Cup and was 22nd at the Tokyo Games three years ago. Lowry carried the flag for Ireland at the Opening Ceremony. 

Tommy Fleetwood - $9,500 (+2000) 
Fleetwood arrives off a hugely disappointing missed cut at the Open Championship. But you have to throw that out, what with the bad weather and the links course not applicable this week. Fleetwood is one of the best around the greens, and his putting is better than it used to be. He finished T16 in Tokyo.

$8,000-$8,900

Corey Conners - $8,900 (+3000) 
In the eight tournaments Conners has played beginning with the Wells Fargo in May, he has six top-25s, a T26 and a T27. That's exemplary (non-Scheffler/Schauffele division). He's improved from 164th on Tour in SG: Putting to 129th. It's safe to say, given all the lesser guys in the field from lesser tours around the world, that Conners is among the better putters in Paris. Hard to believe, we know. That makes him a strong play, one who is ranked No. 5 overall in our model.

Hideki Matsuyama - $8,800 (+3500) 
Matsuyama desperately wanted to win gold three years ago in his native Japan. Instead, he didn't even come away with bronze after losing in that epic seven-man playoff. He's a great ball striker, one of the best around the greens and excellent at minimizing bogeys despite his so-so putter.

$7,000-$7,900

Guido Migliozzi - $7,400 (+8000) 
We're not playing Migliozzi because he won on this course in 2022. Though shooting a final-round 62 on a setup that won't play appreciably harder than we'll see this week doesn't hurt. The Italian was ranked close to 300th in the world a few months back but is now No. 131. That's because he was runner-up at the China Open in May and then he won the KLM Open in June. In between, Migliozzi had another top-10 at the European Open. He tied for 32nd at the Tokyo Games and was top-20 in our model, ranking highly in bogey avoidance. 

Thorbjorn Olesen - $7,200 (+9000) 
Olesen ranks top-10 in this field over his past 24 rounds in both SG: Around-the-Green and Putting. As a PGA Tour member this season, the Dane made the cut at all three majors he played in -- Masters, PGA, Open Championship. He won on the DP World Tour back in January. Olesen didn't play in the 2021 Games but he tied for 30th in 2016.

Victor Perez - $7,100 (+9000) 
One of the two Frenchmen in the field, Perez will be a crowd favorite entering his first Olympics. Our model places him inside the top-25, thanks to excellent putting and his ability to avoid bogeys. Since last month, Perez finished third at the Canadian Open, tied for 12th at the Memorial and for 10th at the Scottish Open.

$6,000-$6,900

Emiliano Grillo - $6,800 (+15000) 
Grillo is one of the steadier ball strikers in the field, which provides a great foundation in the sub-$7,000 range. He's coming off a top-25 at the 3M Open and also made the cut at the U.S. and British Opens. The Argentine tied for eighth at the Rio Games but didn't play in Tokyo.

Fabrizio Zanotti - $6,200 (+35000) 
The 41-year-old from Paraguay is one of four golfers in this field to have played in both the 2016 and 2021 Olympics (along with Ryan Fox, Gavin Green and Pan). Zanotti tied for 15th in Rio and for 35th in Tokyo. Either result would be a better finish than his price tag would suggest. He even has won an international competition -- at the 2019 Pan American Games. Zanotti has not had a great season -- not terrible, either -- but the pickings are quite slim down at this price range. Like Lowry, Zanotti was the flag bearer for his country at the Opening Ceremony.

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