This article is part of our Four-Down Duel series.
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50/50 or Heads Up
In 50/50 or Heads-Up contests, always aim for a lineup that has a higher floor over a higher ceiling. In 50/50 contests, the top half of all entries finish in the money, meaning you don't have to pick a high-ceiling lineup that shoots for the moon. Build these lineups with the players that are essential to winning regardless of their price.
Russell Wilson, $8900 – Wilson will be widely owned in cash games after his record-setting performance last week against the Rams. This is one of those cases where it's too risky to fade Russell given his matchup. A look at his season shows he's been very consistent and productive almost every week. Outside of a dud against the Cowboys, Wilson has two touchdown passes in every game, 100-yard rushing games in two of his last three outings and rushing touchdowns in each of his last three games. This week Wilson gets the Panthers who have given up 38, 34, 24, 38 and 37 points over their last five games. It's hard to imagine Wilson having his hand in less than three touchdowns and that's probably his floor in this matchup.
DeMarco Murray, $9600 – There's no need to justify this selection, as Murray has been a stud all season. He's the highest priced player this week not named Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck, but you can't argue with the production. Murray has yet to be held under 100 rushing yards in a game this season, he has caught six passes in two of his last three games and the Cowboys passing attack will keep defenses honest.
Jerick McKinnon, $5800 – During the preseason, it would have been highly improbable to think of using McKinnon in DFS, but here he is. McKinnon overcame a stout Bills run defense last week to eclipse the 100-yard rushing mark for the second time this season. Despite talks of evening out the workload with Matt Asiata last week, McKinnon had 21 touches to Asiata's seven, showing who has the bulk of the workload. McKinnon has the most upside of any running back under $6000.
Jordy Nelson, $8800 – Tied with Dez Bryant as the highest priced receiver this week, Nelson gets the edge here for a few different reasons. Nelson goes up against a team giving up a 7.7 yards per attempt mark that ranks ninth worst in the league. The game will be played indoors at New Orleans, helping Nelson's chances for a big game. The Saints have always played better at home and put up big points under Sean Payton and Drew Brees. In most places the Saints are slightly favored, meaning the game should stay close. Nelson has suffered during games this season due to blowouts that have given the Packers no reason to throw for all four quarters. That should change Sunday, and with the highest over/under (56) on the board, this game should have plenty of fireworks.
Brandon Marshall, $7400 – Despite coming off of a subpar performance last week, I feel Marshall should be priced with the elite receivers this week. This is another game with a high over/under (50.5) and Jay Cutler may force the ball to Marshall after the controversy this week in Chicago. Marshall is actually $400 cheaper than Alshon Jeffery, and a 100-yard, one touchdown game is probably a 50/50 proposition this week.
Jermaine Kearse, $4900 – Typically, pairing your quarterback with a wide receiver is a good idea and Kearse's price tag makes him an ideal pick. Many may turn to Doug Baldwin ($6800), but prior to last week, he had zero touchdowns and a season-high of 56 receiving yards this season. Kearse is a bigger red zone target and has seven targets in each of his last two games. In order to have enough salary cap space to put the studs in this lineup, you'll need to go with a cheaper option somewhere else, and this a good spot for a discount player.
Scott Chandler, $5100 – Again, to put some of the higher-priced players in your lineup, you'll have to punt in some spots. With Jimmy Graham hurt and Julius Thomas playing on Thursday, tight end is a good position to go cheap. Chandler has been unspectacular but solid since Kyle Orton took over at quarterback. Chandler has five, nine and six targets with Orton and managed a 100-yard game two games ago. The Bills face off against the Jets who have seen their secondary weakened by a plethora of injuries.
Shayne Graham, $4800 – This one is pretty simple. He's only $200 more than the minimum priced kicker, gets a cushy home game in a dome and is part of the game with the highest projected over/under total.
Cowboys D/ST, $4700 – Here's another option only $200 more than the minimum price at the position. The Cowboys appear to be in a great matchup this week, with Colt McCoy or a rusty Robert Griffin playing under center for the Redskins. Plus, the Cowboys are at home, making this a formula that could easily equate to multiple turnovers.
Tournaments
For tournament lineups, you have to look at upside and use some "outside-the-box" picks if you want to cash. Don't use this lineup completely, as there is a lower floor here with a lot of players. Instead, use a mix of studs with a few of the cheaper options listed below, which could net the top overall prize.
Ben Roethlisberger, $7500 – A good strategy to use in DFS is to take players on the underdog in a game that should be high scoring. Roethlisberger is in that situation against the Colts this week, and he could be forced into throwing over 40 passes to keep up with Indy's offense. Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell have been two of the best players at their positions and Martavius Bryant could be the deep threat the Steelers have been missing.
Mike Wallace, $7500 – Wallace isn't cheap this week, and that's the reason why he'll likely be under owned. However, he's got a great matchup against the Jaguars and he has 10 red zone targets already this season. With touchdowns in three straight games, he's in good shape to make it a fourth and it could be from long distance this week.
Travaris Cadet, $5300 – With Pierre Thomas (shoulder) out two to three weeks, Cadet will take over as the pass-catching back for the Saints. He'll likely fill the role of the third-down back and provide a change of pace. Cadet has had 8.1 fantasy points in each of his last three games and could see another nine targets, like he did last week.
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