This article is part of our Draftster NFL series.
With this article we officially put week three behind us in what was one of the stranger fantasy weeks in quite some time. Four players from the Washington/Philadelphia game ended up being in the top six for highest fantasy totals. And we saw names like Austin Davis, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe McKnight, John Brown and Fred Jackson put together big weeks. Out of the 30 100 percent owned players across all Yahoo fantasy leagues, over 50 percent failed to reach double digits in fantasy points. This week offers some hard to turn down matchups in what we hope will be a more fantasy friendly Week 4.
*Please note the following rankings do not include Thursday's matchup between New York and Washington.
Quarterback
1. Drew Brees (NO) at DAL - $9,000
2. Andrew Luck (IND) vs. TEN - $7,700
3. Aaron Rodgers (GB) at CHI - $8,100
4. Tony Romo (DAL) vs. NO - $6,700
5. Colin Kaepernick (SF) vs. PHI - $7,500
6. Jay Cutler (CHI) vs. GB - $7,700
7. Nick Foles (PHI) at SF - $7,100
8. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs. TB - $6,900
9. Matthew Stafford (DET) at NYJ - $8,500
10. Matt Ryan (ATL) at MIN - $9,000
11. Philip Rivers (SD) vs. JAX - $7,900
12. Tom Brady (NE) at KC - $6,500
Notable Byes: Andy Dalton, Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson
Drew Brees (NO) at DAL - $9,000
A lot of experts thought Brees was primed for a breakout performance last week. While he had a good week, he didn't live up to his weekly price. That will change this week. Brees had a good Week 3, connecting with eight different receivers for a 77.1 percent completion percentage. He finished with 293 yards and two touchdowns. This week he moves on to a game against Dallas, who is ranked 21st against the pass, but has yet to face a QB of Brees' caliber.
Andrew Luck (IND) vs. TEN - $7,700
While I think Brees is the best overall play of the weekend, Luck is easily the best play when factoring in salary. He comes in $1,300 cheaper than Brees and has averaged 29.62 fantasy points per game. Luck will take on a Tennessee team that fairs well enough against the pass, but not against the run. With Luck's skill set, he should still be able to make plays with his arm along with his legs.
Tony Romo (DAL) vs. NO - $6,700
Back-to-back weeks I will be suggesting Romo as a play, and if you played him last week you weren't too disappointed. He finished last week completing 18-of-23 passes for 217 yards and two touchdowns against St. Louis. This week he takes on the Saints' 29th-ranked passing defense in a game that appears to be headed for a shootout. Romo comes in as the second-lowest priced QB in my rankings this week.
Running Back
1. DeMarco Murray (DAL) vs. NO - $9,000
2. Le'Veon Bell (PIT) vs. TB - $8,000
3. LeSean McCoy (PHI) at SF - $6,700
4. Matt Forte (CHI) vs. GB - $8,900
5. Donald Brown (SD) vs. JAX - $6,500
6. Eddie Lacy (GB) at CHI - $6,500
7. Lamar Miller (MIA) at OAK - $6,900
8. Kansas City RB vs. NE - Davis: $4,800, Charles: $3,600
9. Frank Gore (SF) vs. PHI - $4,500
10. Ahmad Bradshaw (IND) vs. TEN - $6,300
11. Stevan Ridley (NE) at KC - $4,300
12. Doug Martin (TB) at PIT - $5,800 (P)
13. Shane Vereen (NE) at KC - $4,400
14. C.J. Spiller (BUF) at HOU - $5,300
Notable Byes: Giovani Bernard, Montee Ball, Zac Stacy, Marshawn Lynch
Notes: Monitor the statuses of Jamaal Charles/Knile Davis this week in practice. Also monitor the status of Arian Foster, as he is only $3,100 this week. If Foster plays at full strength, he would be ranked 12th this week against a tough Buffalo rush defense.
Le'Veon Bell (PIT) vs. TB - $8,000
I can't express enough how much I love Bell this weekend. After a 21-carry, 147-yard performance against a tough Carolina defense, the Steelers get a friendly matchup against the Buccaneers. The Bucs may be without Mason Foster and Gerald McCoy, only adding to Bell's value. His price is reaching high limits, but this is a home matchup I can't pass up.
Donald Brown (SD) vs. JAX - $6,500
I admit, I feel a little dirty ranking Brown as the fifth running back this week, but it's hard not to like him this week. He had a less than stellar game against Buffalo, averaging only two yards per carry, but he received a whopping 31 attempts. With Ryan Mathews (knee) sidelined and Danny Woodhead (leg) done for the year, Brown is the only experienced back in San Diego. To make things a little easier, he gets to face the Jaguars. Fire him up.
Lamar Miller (MIA) at OAK - $6,900
Once Knowshon Moreno (elbow) was revealed to be out for 4-to-6 weeks, the reins shifted to Miller to carry the bulk of the load. I was weary if he could handle the workload of being the feature back, but he came out averaging 7.2 yards per carry in a 108-yard performance last week. He gets to take on an Oakland defense that is riddled with injuries and ranks in the lower half of the league against the run.
Wide Receivers
1. Dez Bryant (DAL) vs. NO- $9,000
2. Calvin Johnson (DET) at NYJ - $9,000
3. Jordy Nelson (GB) at DET - $9,000
4. Julio Jones (ATL) at MIN - $9,000
5. Antonio Brown (PIT) vs. TB - $8,300
6. Jeremy Maclin (PHI) at SF - $6,900
7. Randall Cobb (GB) at CHI - $7,000
8. Alshon Jeffery (CHI) vs. GB - $6,900
9. Julian Edelman (NE) at KC - $7,500
10. Keenan Allen (SD) vs. JAX - $5,900
11. Cordarrelle Patterson (MIN) vs. ATL - $5,300
12. Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) at BAL - $5,600
13. Mike Wallace (MIA) vs. KC - $6,200
14. Michael Crabtree (SF) vs. PHI - $7,100
Notable Byes: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Wes Welker, AJ Green, Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald, Percy Harvin
Notes: Brandon Marshall was visibly injured in Monday night's games against the Jets. If he practices full strength before Sunday's game against Green Bay, he would get a bump into the top six.
Dez Bryant (DAL) vs. NO- $9,000
With four max-priced wide receivers to pick from this week, I give a slight edge to Bryant due to matchup and health. I originally had Calvin Johnson ranked No. 1, but reports of a lingering ankle injury bumps him down. However, I should note Bryant was limited in practice Wednesday, but it is too hard to ignore his matchup against the Saints. In what should be a Sunday Night shootout, Dez and the Cowboys will need to put up the points to keep up with Brees and the Saints.
Jeremy Maclin (PHI) at SF - $6,900
Maclin comes in as one of the best value plays of the week. He is still mid-priced, but his production is comparable to more expensive players. He now has a touchdown in each of the first three weeks and is averaging 98.7 yards per game. The Niners pass defense is not the defense of old and ranks middle of the pack.
Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) at BAL - $5,600
On paper, this matchup isn't ideal, but go behind the numbers a little bit and you will see a stunning stat that is hard to ignore. Kelvin Benjamin has played 54 more snaps than any other Carolina receiver and he as 45 percent of all Panthers receiver targets. Matchup aside, the numbers back up Benjamin getting all opportunities weekly to be a successful mid-priced option.
Tight End
1. Jimmy Graham (NO) at DAL - $8,000
2. Martellus Bennett (CHI) vs. GB - $5,300
3. Greg Olsen (CAR) at BAL - $5,100
4. Rob Gronkowski (NE) at KC - $5,800
5. Zach Ertz (PHI) at SF - $4,400
6. Antonio Gates (SD) vs. JAX - $6,100
7. Owen Daniels (BAL) vs. CAR - $3,300
8. Delaine Walker (TEN) at IND - $5,600
9. Heath Miller (PIT) vs. TB - $4,000
10. Jason Witten (DAL) vs NO - $4,300
Notable Byes: Jordan Cameron, Julius Thomas
Jimmy Graham (NO) at DAL - $8,000
Hands down, far and away, the safest and best play of the week is Jimmy Graham in at tight end. Brees gets to face a passing defense that gave up the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. The Cowboys have already been torched by Vernon Davis and Delaine Walker this year, and Jared Cook fared well against Dallas in Week 3. Streaming a tight end against Dallas is a legit strategy right now, and Graham is already the best option at the position. Fade at your own risk.
Martellus Bennett (CHI) vs. GB - $5,300
I admittedly need to start giving Bennett some more credit. He was outside my top 10 last week, which makes me look like a fool after he corralled two touchdowns on five receptions. He now has a touchdown in all three games this year and a total of four on the year. He's also averaging seven receptions a game. The Packers defense ranks at the top of defense against tight ends, but that is more a product of facing three straight teams with weak tight ends (Zach Miller, Jace Amaro, Eric Ebron).
Owen Daniels (BAL) vs. CAR - $3,300
If you decide to go the money saving route at tight end, Daniels is your best bet. After losing Dennis Pitta to a season ending hip injury, Daniels will fill the starting tight end role moving forward. The Baltimore passing game is nothing great and outside of Steve Smith has yet to establish much of a rhythm or identity, but Daniels remains a red-zone threat.
Kicker
1. Cody Parkey (PHI) at SF - $3,600
2. Dan Bailey (DAL) vs. NO - $3,600
3. Matt Bryant (ATL) at MIN - $3,800
4. Stephen Gostkowski (NE) at KC - $4,200
5. Blair Walsh (MIN) vs. ATL - $3,100
*The Kicker selection will change week-to-week based on highest over/under. In most cases, you will want to select the lowest-priced kicker with the highest over/under. This week those honors go to Parkey.
Defense
1. San Diego (vs. JAX) - $3,800
2. Baltimore (vs. CAR) - $3,900
3. Houston (vs. BUF) - $3,800
4. Pittsburgh (vs. TB) - $3,600
On the opposite spectrum of kickers, defenses are selected based on the lowest over/under totals in a given week. The Carolina/Baltimore game comes in the lowest at 39 points, which led to a No. 2 ranking this week. But top honors go to the Chargers who will face Blake Bortles in his first NFL start.
Last week's lineup:
QB: Aaron Rodgers (10.48)
RB: DeMarco Murray (25.10)
RB: Alfred Morris (7.70)
WR: AJ Green (19.20)
WR: Randall Cobb (5.90)
TE: Jimmy Graham (11.40)
FLEX: Justin Forsett (10.50)
K: Dan Bailey (11.00)
D: Tampa Bay (2.00)
TOTAL: 103.28
All in all, a very bad week for me as some top (and highly owned) picks did not come through. I put a lot of faith in Rodgers and the passing game in Green Bay to put up big numbers in back-to-back weeks. The game ended up being a defensive struggle in which the Lions were able to control the clock for the latter half. My bright spot was Murray, though it came at a high price. Green was a no-brainer, as Draftster tends to make injured players minimum price. Even though points were scored in the Eagles/Redskins game, Morris was never able to get anything going on the ground. Graham and the Saints also didn't meet the over in their game. Essentially, it was a week where I chased high over/under totals and all games covered the under. This was my first rough week on Draftster after a strong start to the year and I hope to correct my ship moving into Week 4.
