This article is part of our Four-Down Duel series.
50/50 or Heads Up
In 50/50 or Heads-Up contests, always aim for a lineup that has a higher floor over a higher ceiling. In 50/50 contests, the top half of all entries finishes in the money, meaning you don't have to pick a high-ceiling lineup that shoots for the moon. Build these lineups with the players that are essential to winning regardless of their price.
Andrew Luck, $9,800 – It's almost always a good idea to spend liberally on your quarterback, as you want to have a very safe floor. Luck has established that floor thus far and has averaged over 300 passing yards and three passing touchdowns over his first three games. This week, he gets the reeling Titans, in Indianapolis, for one of the better matchups of the week. Few quarterbacks in the league have the depth he does for receiving options with Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener, and Dwayne Allen. Look for Luck to keep the offense rolling Sunday.
Lamar Miller, $6,900 – Last week, Miller showed that he is going to be the workhorse in the Dolphins backfield until Knowshon Moreno returns. Miller finished last week's game with 19 touches for 132 yards and caught four passes in the process. This week, he has to travel across the pond to London but gets the Raiders who have given up an average of over 150 rushing yards per game. Figuring in another four catches, Miller should easily eclipse 10 points this week in the FanDuel system.
Donald Brown, $6,300 – Last week, there was uncertainty about how many touches Brown would get with Danny Woodhead lurking to steal snaps. Woodhead unfortunately was hurt early in the game, and the Chargers gave Brown a heavy workload. That workload included 31 carries and five catches, although it only totaled 89 yards against a pretty stout Bills' run defense. This week should be much easier for Brown as he gets the 0-3 Jaguars at home. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where San Diego jumps out to a big lead and runs the ball the majority of the second half. It's also worth noting that Brown had what appeared to be a touchdown run from the goal line called dead by a Charger penalty.
Calvin Johnson, $9,300 – Calvin has been relatively quiet over his last two contests, yet still had at least 11.2 fantasy points in each game. He had a monster game Week 1 against the Giants, and fantasy owners will likely shy away from him if they have a short memory. This week, he gets the Jets who have both a short week to prepare and have big holes in their secondary. Even if he's double or triple covered this week, it's hard to imagine Megatron doesn't have at least 100 receiving yards and a touchdown. Just keep an eye on his ankle injury, which is likely nothing to worry about.
T.Y. Hilton, $6,600 – It's always a good idea to pair your quarterback with one of his top receiving options, and this week, Hilton fits that bill. His price is almost $3,000 less than the elite options at the position, and he's been heavily targeted by Luck with 28 targets over the first three games. Hilton has five, six, and five catches over those three games and has a good chance to find the end zone for the first time this season. Gambling on his upside makes more sense than going with Reggie Wayne ($6900) or Hakeem Nicks ($5800) when taking their price tags into consideration.
Steve Smith, $6,100 – Looking closely at the Ravens' games, Torrey Smith has been pretty unlucky until this point. He's drawn some long pass-interference calls and is primed to go off sometime soon. That being said, Smith has turned into something of a safety blanket for Joe Flacco and has established a nice floor since joining Baltimore. Smith has averaged 14.7 fantasy points this season in the FanDuel format, something no one priced at $6,600 or cheaper at the position has done. He has at least five catches and 71 receiving yards in each of his first three games, and knowing his personality, he'll have every motivation to beat his former team this weekend.
Travis Kelce, $5,200 – Until his price goes up markedly, there's no reason to abandon using Kelce when he's this cheap. He finally found the end zone last week and should have the trust of Alex Smith by now. Kelce has over 10 fantasy points in each of his last two games and is a steal considering his price, and that he's healthy.
Phil Dawson, $5,000 – Dawson has been a little disappointing to start the season, going 2-for-4 in the field goal department. Although, one of those was blocked. He'll be in line for a much better week at home against the Eagles.
Detroit Defense/ST, $4,700 – As discussed earlier, New York will have a shorter week after their Monday night loss and their only consolation will be that they're home. After stifling the Packers offense last week, it's possible the Lions have been underrated as a unit heading into this season. Geno Smith should be good for a turnover or two as well.
Tournaments
For tournament lineups, you have to look at upside and use some "outside-the-box" picks if you want to cash. Don't use this lineup completely as there is a lower floor here with a lot of players. A mix of studs with a few of the cheaper options listed below could net the top overall prize.
Keenan Allen, $6,700 – Allen was mentioned here last week, and it'll be a surprise if he doesn't come through this week. While he did little last week, he got through the game healthy and was on the field for 65 snaps against the Bills. This week, he gets a cupcake matchup at home against the Jaguars and will likely have a breakout game. He's lost the trust of most daily fantasy sports players at this point, and at this his inflated price, he'll likely be under-owned this week.
Mike Glennon, $5,500 – Want a quarterback that'll probably be owned in less than five percent of contests and more likely two percent of all tournament contests? Glennon will step under center for the Bucs this week on the road against the Steelers in what should be a tough road start. Working in Glennon's favor is that he has two excellent receiving options in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson and should get promising rookie Austin Sefari-Jenkins back at tight end. The Steelers are not the same defense they've been in the past, giving up a 68 percent completion rate and allowing a passer rating of over 104.
Khiry Robinson, $4,900 – It's reasonable to still worry about how the workload is going to be divided for the Saints, and it didn't please Robinson's owners that Pierre Thomas got the goal-line carry for the touchdown last week. However, Robinson got the bulk of the carries, and Thomas was already in the game when the ball was placed at the goal line. Robinson still finished with 18 carries, and the only reason Robinson isn't in the section above is the lack of targets he has received in the passing game. He's a great punt play for the position for a player that can rush for a touchdown or two while flirting with a 100-yard game.
