This article is part of our King for a Day series.
DraftKings will have its second round of championships in Week 16, with the $3.1 Million Main Event ($1,500 entry), $1 Million Chop Block ($50 Entry) and $400k Flea Flicker ($5 Entry).
All of those contests start Sunday at 1 PM ET, meaning they won't include the Thursday game or the two Saturday games.
While my picks for this week are strictly for the Sunday and Monday games, I do have some thoughts on the Thursday-Saturday contests, which include the $75K Thursday Finale ($20 entry).
Oddly enough, there are no players more expensive than $6500, and that means you'll have at least $2300 in unused salary, assuming you don't take Keenan Allen (out-collarbone). LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin are must-starts against Washington, while you can probably say the same for former teammate DeSean Jackson. I don't have especially strong feelings about the quarterbacks, but I slightly prefer Mark Sanchez to the much more talented Philip Rivers, who will have to face the 49ers. I'm also a fan of Jacksonville's Toby Gerhart, which gives you an idea of just how weak this player pool is.
Anyway, here are my favorite Sunday and Monday players for Week 16 on DraftKings…
Quarterbacks
Andrew Luck, IND (at DAL), $8900 – Even following a down week against the Texans, Luck is easily the leading scorer among quarterbacks, averaging 3.2 more points than Aaron Rodgers. Sunday's game has an over/under of 55, and Luck carries his lowest price since Week 8, despite facing the sub-par Cowboys defense.
Matt Ryan, ATL (at NO), $7400 – The Saints shut down Jay Cutler last week, but one strong showing against a team that's falling apart does not make up for an entire season's worth of bad work. This matchup between offense-first teams carries the highest over/under (55.5/56) of the week, and that almost seems too low, given how awful the Atlanta and New Orleans defenses have been this season. Also encouraging is Ryan's recent performance, as he has three straight games with at least 24.84 DraftKings points, yet still carries a mid-range price tag.
Other options:Aaron Rodgers, GB (at TB), $9000; Drew Brees, NO (vs. ATL), $8300; Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (vs. KC), $7400; Andy Dalton, CIN (vs. DEN), $5900
Notes: Coming off arguably his worst game as a pro, Rodgers will face a much weaker defense in much warmer weather. Brees is going to tear the Falcons apart, but there's some risk that the New Orleans running game will eat into his volume and touchdowns. Roethlisberger gets a price decrease on the heels of a masterful performance, thanks to Le'Veon Bell accounting for both of the Steelers' offensive touchdowns. Dalton is your best option among the cheap quarterbacks, as the Bengals probably won't be able to ride their running game to victory this week.
Running Backs
C.J. Anderson, DEN (at CIN), $6900 – This one is almost too obvious to discuss, as Anderson – a three-down back in an elite offense – has 21 or more carries in each of his last four games, heading into a favorable matchup with the Bengals' lousy front seven. Don't be scared off by Cincy's Week 15 shutout of Johnny Manziel and the Browns, as it was preceded by a 42-21 pasting at the hands of the Steelers.
Lamar Miller, MIA (vs. MIN), $4400 – I've been eyeballing Miller's price for the past few weeks, but it was tough to pull the trigger in tricky matchups against the Patriots and Ravens. With the Dolphins more likely to play from ahead this week, Miller becomes a promising option at a very low price. The drawback is that he doesn't have a great ceiling, due to the Dolphins' reluctance to give him the ball. With the exception of a game that he exited early because of a shoulder injury, Miller has between 11 and 18 carries in every contest this season. He's an excellent bet to provide three-to-four DraftKings points for every $1000 of salary, but he probably needs a pair of touchdowns in order to make a run at 25+ points.
Other options:Le'Veon Bell, PIT (vs. KC), $9800; Jamaal Charles, KC (at PIT), $8000; Eddie Lacy, GB (at TB), $7300; Joique Bell, DET (at CHI), $6000; Jonathan Stewart, CAR (vs. CLE), $5200 Matt Asiata, MIN (at MIA), $4500; Pierre Thomas, NO (vs. ATL), $3800; Joseph Randle, DAL (vs. IND), $3000
Notes: Bell gets to face yet another vulnerable defense, as the Chiefs have been disastrously bad at stopping the run since mid-season. Charles looked reasonably healthy last week, and he has the other side of a game featuring two defenses that can't stop the run. Lacy erased any concerns about the hip injury last week, rumbling for 97 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries against the fantastic Buffalo defense. Bell burnt the Bears last time around, and the Lions may be in clock-killing mode by the second half (quarter?). Even if DeAngelo Williams (hand) returns, Stewart should be in for a nice day against a Cleveland team that's excellent at stopping the pass but terrible against the run. Asiata figures to get most of the carries against a defense that has faded badly late in the season. Thomas doesn't have a great ceiling, but if he finds his way into the end zone, he might produce 15-20 points for just $3800. Randle will be in all of my lineups if DeMarco Murray (hand) can't go.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown, PIT (vs. KC), $8800 – Odell Beckham Jr. has stolen some of Brown's small-receiver thunder, but No. 84 is still the most reliable wideout in the NFL. With his five-reception streak now at 30 games, Brown gets to face an overrated Kansas City defense that is very reliant on its two pass-rushing outside linebackers, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. The Steelers will likely counter with a steady dose of Le'Veon Bell, along with a slew of short passes to Brown. That's basically what they want to do anyway, and it should work quite well come Sunday. Also, the Chiefs' only reliable cornerback is the 6-foot-3 Sean Smith, who probably doesn't have the quickness or fluidity to stick with the uber-agile Brown.
Vincent Jackson, TB (vs. GB), $5600 – Jackson represents the classic case of a receiver being undervalued due to a flukish lack of touchdowns in an otherwise solid season. While Mike Evans' hulking presence is obviously a factor, it isn't sustainable for the rookie to catch five touchdowns for every one of Jackson's, given that the veteran has actually been getting more targets. Jackson has hit double-digit targets seven times this season, including the past two weeks. With the Bucs likely to be facing a deficit, the 31-year-old receiver should have plenty of opportunities.
Andre Holmes, OAK (vs. BUF), $3300 – With the Raiders unlikely to find much success on the ground, Derek Carr should have another busy day, after completing just 27-of-56 passes for 222 yards in a Week 15 loss to the Chiefs. While this week's matchup is tougher than last week's, I'm guessing that Carr can complete 50 percent of his passes for at least five yards per attempt, which is an incredibly low threshold to cross. Holmes has been playing the most snaps of any Oakland receiver in recent weeks, and he has 32 targets over the last four games. If Carr can find him on a deep ball, Holmes has the potential to produce a huge game while carrying a near-minimum price tag.
Other options:Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (at STL), $9000; Calvin Johnson, DET (at CHI), $8700; Dez Bryant, DAL (vs. IND), $8600; A.J. Green, CIN (vs. DEN), $8200; Randall Cobb, GB (at TB), $7100; Golden Tate, DET (at CHI), $6100; Charles Johnson, MIN (at MIA), $4900; Torrey Smith, BAL (at HOU), $4600; Steve Smith, BAL (at HOU), $5600; Marquess Wilson, CHI (vs. DET), $3600; Nick Toon, NO (vs. ATL), $3000
Notes: Beckham can no longer be considered a steal, but he's already an elite receiver, and he's drawing a ton of targets. While the Lions may end up pounding the rock, Johnson should make a mockery of the Chicago secondary, if he gets sufficient opportunities. Bryant will likely see a ton of Vontae Davis, but he'll also see plenty of the ball. Green will face an excellent group of cornerbacks, but I expect volume to make up for the difficult matchup. Cobb comes at a very reasonable price in what should be a big game for the Green Bay offense. While somewhat quiet in recent weeks, Tate is still a very talented player, and he's getting plenty of looks. The Vikings' clear No. 1 wide receiver, Johnson remains affordable for a decent matchup with the fading Miami defense. The Smiths both carry affordable price tags for a matchup against the team allowing the second-most DK points to wideouts. Wilson and Toon are solid punt plays, though the Bears' quarterback switch has me leaning toward the latter.
Tight End
Travis Kelce, KC (at PIT), $4600 – Kelce's increased role has led to 12 receptions for 169 yards and a touchdown on 15 targets over the last two weeks. He now gets to face a poor Steelers defense in what should be a high-scoring game, though Vegas doesn't seem to agree, with the over/under at a middling 46.5. I think both teams are getting a bit too much credit for past performance, as the Steelers defense has been awful for much of the season, while the Chiefs have completely lost their ability to defend the run. For optimal results, use Kelce and Le'Veon Bell in the same lineup, and then root like hell for the Steelers to pull ahead.
Other options:Jimmy Graham, NO (vs. ATL), $6300; Greg Olsen, CAR (vs. CLE), $6000; Mychal Rivera, OAK (vs. BUF), $4000; Jared Cook, STL (vs. NYG), $3200
Notes: Graham was healthy and productive against the Bears on Monday, but he didn't do enough to raise his price. Olsen has five or more catches in 11 of his 14 games, with 20 receptions over the last two weeks. Rivera is only averaging 9.1 yards per catch, but he has 27 targets over the last three weeks, and the Raiders will probably need to throw a bunch against the Bills. While entirely unreliable from both a real-life and fantasy perspective, Cook has 84 targets through 14 games, and he's the cheapest viable option.
Team D/ST
Baltimore Ravens at HOU, $3400 – With the Ravens, Seahawks and Lions all set to face scrub quarterbacks who haven't started a game this season, there's a ton of potential for huge team-defense showings. The Lions will be the popular pick, as they're the cheapest of the three units, facing a Chicago team that just blew up on national television. I'd rather spend a few extra bucks to get a lesser-used defense, and the Bears will at least start a quarterback who's been on the roster all season. The Ravens and Seahawks will face third/fourth-stringers who were only added to the roster in recent weeks.
Other options:Seattle Seahawks (at ARI), $3700; Buffalo Bills (at OAK), $3500; Detroit Lions (at CHI), $3100; Denver Broncos, (at CIN), $2900; Oakland Raiders, (vs. BUF), $2200
Notes: The Seattle defense looks like the championship-winning unit it was last season, while Ryan Lindley is arguably the worst starting quarterback in recent NFL memory. It'll be a shame if the Bills don't make the playoffs, as their defense is the AFC's best. The Lions have a very talented defense to go along with a great matchup, but when I spend more than $3000, I prefer to go with a not-so-popular choice. The Denver defense seems underpriced every week, and while I don't put any stock in the Andy Dalton primetime narrative, the Cincinnati offense is still maddeningly inconsistent. The Raiders once again make for a solid punt option, facing a sub-par Buffalo offense in Oakland.
