This article is part of our Four-Down Duel series.
50/50 or Heads Up
In 50/50 or Heads-Up contests, always aim for a lineup that has a higher floor rather than a higher ceiling. In 50/50 contests, the top half of all entries finish in the money, meaning you don't have to pick a high-ceiling lineup that shoots for the moon. Build these lineups with the players who are essential to winning regardless of their price.
Russell Wilson, $8,500 - Wilson is the seventh highest-priced quarterback this week and is about $2,000 cheaper than the elite quarterbacks. Outside of Tony Romo, quarterbacks have put up big fantasy stats against the Eagles this season in many high-scoring affairs, boding well for Wilson this weekend. The Eagles have consistently put up points under Mark Sanchez and Seattle's defense has not played as well on the road as it has at home. Wilson has almost 700 rushing yards this season and has at least 71 rushing yards in three of his last four games.
Eddie Lacy, $8,500 - If there's someone to pay up for this week, Lacy is one of the players you should consider. First, it's an excellent home matchup against the Falcons, who have given up a league-high 15 rushing touchdowns. Much like last season, it took a while for Lacy to get rolling, but he's been great lately. He scored only 12.5 fantasy points in a tough matchup with New England and had games of 26.8, 24.9, 19.3 and 22.2 fantasy points. Lacy should have no problem putting up another effort of about 20 points Monday night.
Marion Grice, $5,000 - Andre Ellington's status for this week's game is in the air, but he looks doubtful to play. Should he be sidelined as expected, Grice makes for an excellent value play. Bruce Arians already said that Grice will start if Ellington is out, and Grice would have a great matchup in Arizona. The Chiefs are last in the league in rushing defense, giving up less than five yards per carry, and have been gashed by running backs recently. Grice is big enough to handle the goal-line work but also has the speed and agility to catch passes out of the backfield.
Odell Beckham Jr., $8,200 - The Colts were just torched by Ryan Fitzpatrick, of all people, and gave up 40.3 fantasy points to DeAndre Hopkins. Beckham has scored at least 12 fantasy points over his last six games and has more than 18 fantasy points in three of those games. He should again get plenty of targets from Eli Manning, and with the Giants defense a mess this game could turn into a shootout. This isn't any type of bargain price, but ODJ has established a nice enough floor to pay up for his services.
Josh Gordon, $8,000 - This pick is in play no matter what but will be even better if Vontae Davis (concussion) misses the game. While he hasn't scored in his first two games, Gordon has had a whopping 13 and 16 targets his first two games, and there's no reason to think they'll diminish this week. Andrew Luck shouldn't have any trouble moving the ball, and the Colts have given up a below-average 7.6 yards per attempt through the air.
Kenny Stills, $6,400 - Stills has been profiled the last couple weeks in this column, and there's no reason to get away from him at this point. Drew Brees is a better fantasy quarterback at home in the dome, and Stills has been a force since Brandin Cooks was put on IR. Stills was able to get loose for a long touchdown last week and has 24.7 and 13.6 fantasy points the last two weeks. His price still hasn't caught up to his production, making him a nice bargain this week.
Antonio Gates, $5,600 - Gates' production was down until last week yet the never-aging tight end has one of the better fantasy point (11.2) averages this season. In fact, Gates is the cheapest player at the position who is averaging more than 11 fantasy points per game. This week he'll be home versus the Patriots, a team that San Diego likely will have to throw against to keep up their high-scoring offense.
Shayne Graham, $4500 - Graham is at the minimum price, is at home on a team that can move the ball and is going against a weak defense. There's no reason to overthink the kicking position at all this week.
Detroit Lions D/ST - A lot is working in favor of the Lions this week with their home matchup against the Buccaneers. First, they've had a few extra days to prepare for this game after playing on Thanksgiving. Second, their run defense in the best in the league, and Tampa Bay has no one special in their backfield. That means this game could rest on the shoulders of Josh McCown, who has shown himself to be nothing more than a league-average quarterback. If the Lions know the pass is coming, this game could turn ugly quickly.
Tournaments
For tournament lineups, you have to look at upside and use some "outside-the-box" picks if you want to cash. Don't use this lineup completely, as there is a lower floor here with a lot of players. A mix of studs with a few of the cheaper options listed below could net the top overall prize.
Brian Hoyer, $6,700 - Want the ultimate contrarian play for this week at quarterback? While many expected Johnny Manziel would be under center for Cleveland, it was announced Wednesday that Hoyer will continue to start. There are opinions that Hoyer will be on a short leash Sunday making him an even less attractive option, even in tournaments. However, Hoyer has looked competent at times and could bounce back against the Colts who just gave up 392 passing yards to Colt McCoy. Hoyer would be an interesting play to pair up with Josh Gordan and/or Andrew Hawkins, especially with Miles Austin out for the season.
Pierre Garcon, $5,600 - Colt McCoy has actually looked like a competent NFL quarterback during his two starts, and there's a chance that DeSean Jackson will be sidelined this week. If that's the case, Garcon makes a great play as someone who'll be less than five percent owned in GPPs. It's a plus matchup for Garcon as well with the Rams giving up 7.5 yards per passing attempt this season.
