This article is part of our Four-Down Duel series.
50/50 or Heads Up
In 50/50 or Heads-Up contests, always aim for a lineup that has a higher floor over a higher ceiling. In 50/50 contests, the top half of all entries finish in the money, meaning you don't have to pick a high-ceiling lineup that shoots for the moon. Build these lineups with the players that are essential to winning regardless of their price.
Ben Roethlisberger, 8,300 – Big Ben appears to be more comfortable at home this season with games of 35.7, 44.78, 16.9 and 22.36 fantasy points in Pittsburgh. He hasn't thrown less than two touchdowns in any home game and he faces a bad Saints' defense this week. Drew Brees and company should be able to put up points against the Steelers, keeping Roethlisberger throwing late in the game. Considering his price and likely production, Roethlisberger provides a very safe floor this week without breaking the bank at the position.
C.J. Anderson, $7,800 – First, Ronnie Hillman and now Anderson. In case you haven't been paying attention, it's a good pick to grab the feature running back in Peyton Manning's offense. Anderson went for 195 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown last week. This week, Anderson won't have any real competition for touches, and he will face a Chiefs' defense that was just torched by Latavius Murray. He's basically an elite back at a $1,500 discount.
Dan Herron, $5,800 – Some might think it's a little early to jump the gun on a player who has only one good week, but Herron is an exception. After waiting for this opportunity all season, Herron earned the starting nod for the Colts last week, finishing with 17 touches for 96 yards and 10.1 fantasy points. He should receive at least that number of touches again this week and there's a good chance he finds the end zone against the hapless Redskins. This game has blowout written all over it and Herron could easily surpass 20 touches.
Antonio Brown, $9,200 – Mr. PPR seems like a logical choice to pair up with Ben although it was tempting to go back to Martavis Bryant ($7,000), who is a nice GPP option. Brown's success at home directly correlates with Roethlisberger's, as he had games of 25.9, 30.8, 17.62 and 29.28 fantasy points. Again, Rob Ryan's defense is nothing to fear, and once the Saints decide to bring more players up to the line to stop Le'Veon Bell, it'll open up the passing game downfield.
Kenny Stills, $5,100 – Stills was written up as a tournament play last week following the news that Brandin Cooks was out for the season and he didn't disappoint. Stills had eight catches for 98 yards (13.8 fantasy points) to easily earn his price tag. Again, the Pittsburgh/New Orleans game should be a shootout and the Steelers are missing a few key components to their secondary.
Davante Adams, $5,100 – This is a little bit of a suspect pick given that the floor can be pretty low on Adams. However, looking at the matchup there appears to be a decent, if not great, game in the cards for Adams. Patriots coach Bill Belicheck is notorious for taking away an opposing team's best weapons, which would be Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb for the Packers. It's likely Darrelle Revis covers one of those receivers while Brandon Browner (likely on Jordy) and some safety help watch the other. That will leave Adams on single coverage all game and allow him to get open easier than his two teammates.
Rob Gronkowski, $7,700 – In almost every cash game this season, you should be flipping a three-headed coin with Gronk, Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas. However, with Thomas (ankle) on the mend, you'll want to wait for his "show me" game until thinking of using him again. That leaves Gronkowski and Graham, who both have road matchups in what should be high scoring games. Gronkowski's matchup gets the slight edge, as the game has a point spread of only 3 but a crazy over/under of 58. Expect Gronkowski to easily eclipse the 10.3 fantasy points he had last week.
Adam Vinatieri, $5,600 – Never, ever pay up for a kicker, right? Well, this week is an exception. Vinatieri is $1,100 more than the minimum price but the stars appear to be aligned for him. He has a home, indoors matchup and the Colts are a 10-point favorite in a game with a 51 over/under. He's 25-for-25 this season on field goal attempts and there are enough savings to be had at other positions to spend a little extra on him.
Miami D/ST, $4,900 – This is a case where a team will be heavily owned in cash games and it is not worth taking a chance on fading them. Jets quarterback Geno Smith threw four picks in his last start against Buffalo, and he didn't look any more comfortable last week in relief of Michael Vick. But this is more than fading the Jets, as the Dolphins defense has been very good this season.
Tournaments
For tournament lineups, you have to look at upside and use some "outside-the-box" picks if you want to cash. Don't use this lineup completely, as there is a lower floor here with a lot of players. Instead, use a mix of studs with a few of the cheaper options listed below, which could net the top overall prize.
Teddy Bridgewater, $6,900 – Like most teams, the Vikings seem to play better at home, and Bridgewater is a big reason why. Outside of a dud against a tough Lions defense, Bridgewater has games of 20.6, 16.72 and 23.38 points at home this season. He faces a porous Carolina defense that is in the bottom-third of the league in yards per attempt (7.5) against and touchdown passes (20). Bridgewater is also averaging four carries per game over his last three contests, giving his fantasy value a modest bump.
Latavius Murray, $6,700 – Here's a case of a player likely to be under-owned, as he's coming off an injury (concussion) and his price is still somewhat high. Murray showed his upside last week in a limited amount of work, and he should be in for a big workload this week now that Tony Sparano is running the ship. Murray has the unique size and speed to not only break tackles but also reel off long touchdown runs once he breaks through to the second level.
Cecil Shorts, $5,900 – Shorts is coming off a one-catch dud and therefore will be extremely under-owned this week in DFS. His setup is good, though, as the Jaguars will be home against a Giants' team that has a suspect secondary. Shorts had at least seven targets in each of his previous five games prior to his bye week, and he has the ability to get behind the defense for a long touchdown.
