This article is part of our Draftster NFL series.
We move on to Week 10 in the NFL season, and Draftster continues into Week 5 of its Single Entry Championship. The Championship already has 12 qualifiers for the final in December and is running buy-ins this week at 5, 10, and 20 dollars. Also moving into its second week is the Terrell Owens Challenge. It's an $11 buy-in with a $300 top prize. Please note the following rankings do not include Thursday's matchup between Cincinnati and Cleveland.
Quarterback
1. Peyton Manning (DEN) at OAK - $9,000
2. Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs. CHI - $8,800
3. Drew Brees (NO) vs. SF - $8,900
4. Jay Cutler (CHI) at GB - $7,300
5. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) at NYJ - $8,100
6. Russell Wilson (SEA) vs. NYG - $7,600
7. Matt Ryan (ATL) at TB - $8,600
8. Carson Palmer (ARI) vs. ARI - $6,700
9. Cam Newton (CAR) at PHI - $7,400
10. Colin Kaepernick (SF) at NO - $6,600
11. Mark Sanchez (PHI) vs. CAR - $5,100
12. Matthew Stafford (DET) vs. MIA - $7,000
Notable Byes: Andrew Luck (IND), Tom Brady (NE), Philip Rivers (SD)
Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs. CHI - $8,800
If you have been paying attention to these articles on a weekly basis, you have probably picked up on the fact that I put a lot of faith into Vegas totals. As a former sports bettor, I understand that these lines are usually golden, and once I moved into daily fantasy sports, I started using them religiously for picking top plays of the week. Aside from Rodgers arguably being the best quarterback in the league, he also comes into Week 10 with the highest Vegas total of the week at 53. The Packers are coming off of an embarrassing, primetime loss to New Orleans in Week 8 and will look to their signal caller to get them back on track. Rodgers is absolutely worth paying up for this week, and do not be surprised to see a four-touchdown output from the Pro Bowler.
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) at NYJ - $8,100
If you read last week's article, I told you not to play Ben Roethlisberger. In retrospect, I hope you didn't listen. Roethlisberger picked right up where he left off in Week 9 against the Colts, totaling 340 yards and six touchdown passes. If you are keeping score at home, that is now 12 touchdowns in two weeks. The Steelers move on to face the Jets this week, and if coach Mike Tomlin lets Roethlisberger air it out again, we could see similar numbers. As a disclaimer, though, there is no way to ever predict more than four touchdown passes from a quarterback in any given week.
Mark Sanchez (PHI) vs. CAR - $5,100
With teammate Nick Foles expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks with a fractured clavicle, Sanchez will take over the reins in Philadelphia. Sanchez entered in the second quarter last week and finished with 202 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions on 22 attempts. Sanchez is going to be dirt cheap around the daily fantasy industry this week, and he's an intriguing play against a very bad Carolina secondary that has already been exploited several times this year.
Running Back
1. Matt Forte (CHI) at GB - $9,000
2. DeMarco Murray (DAL) at JAX - $8,800
3. Marshawn Lynch (SEA) vs. NYG - $8,200
4. Jamaal Charles (KC) at BUF - $6,800
5. Eddie Lacy (GB) vs. CHI - $6,100
6. Le'Veon Bell (PIT) at NYJ - $7,000
7. Andre Ellington (ARI) vs. STL - $7,600
8. Mark Ingram (NO) vs. SF - $5,100
9. Ronnie Hillman (DEN) at OAK - $6,900
10. LeSean McCoy (PHI) vs. CAR - $7,200
11. Justin Forsett (BAL) vs. TEN - $5,600
12. Frank Gore (SF) at NO - $4,000
Notable Byes: Arian Foster (HOU), Ahmad Bradshaw (IND), Alfred Morris (WAS)
Matt Forte (CHI) at GB - $9,000
In each of Forte's last five games, he's totaled more than 25 fantasy points with at least 110 all-purpose yards. He has also averaged 7.5 receptions over that stretch. In a Week 4 meeting against Green Bay, Forte had 171 total yards but failed to find the end zone. In what should be a high-scoring primetime affair, Forte is my top play this week at any position.
Ronnie Hillman (DEN) at OAK - $6,900
With his return looming, Montee Ball went on record as saying, "Ronnie Hillman should remain the starter." That is a bold statement from the former starting running back and an indication that Ball's confidence at the NFL level may not have yet reached its peak. Hillman will remain the feature back this Sunday against a poor Oakland defense that ranks 27th against the run. He struggled last week running the ball with only 16 yards on 10 attempts but flourished in the passing game, catching seven balls for 47 yards and a touchdown.
LeSean McCoy (PHI) vs. CAR - $7,200
If it weren't for the fact that McCoy only has one touchdown on the season, he would be a lot easier to recommend at his intermediate price. However, the Eagles' back hasn't found pay dirt since Week 2 against Indianapolis. With Mark Sanchez taking over at quarterback, expect the team to lean a little heavier on the run game. Hopefully that means McCoy finds the end zone this week instead of fellow back Chris Polk. McCoy didn't practice Wednesday due to an illness, but it doesn't seem like any real threat to his status come Monday.
Wide Receiver
1. Antonio Brown (PIT) at. NYJ - $9,000
2. Demaryius Thomas (DEN) at OAK - $9,000
3. Jordy Nelson (GB) vs. CHI - $8,200
4. Jeremy Maclin (PHI) vs. CAR - $8,000
5. Randall Cobb (GB) vs. CHI - $7,700
6. Julio Jones (ATL) at TB - $8,300
7. Alshon Jeffery (CHI) at GB - $7,300
8. Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) at OAK - $7,700
9. Dez Bryant (DAL) at JAX - $7,300
10. Brandon Marshall (CHI) at GB - $6,700
11. Calvin Johnson (DET) vs. MIA - $7,700 (P - Ankle)
12. Sammy Watkins (BUF) vs. KC - $6,800
Notable Byes: T.Y. Hilton (IND), Pierre Garcon/DeSean Jackson (WAS), Brandon LaFell (NE), Andre Johnson/DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)
Antonio Brown (PIT) at. NYJ - $9,000
When you see a player's quarterback go on a 12-touchdown binge in a span of two weeks, it is hard not to pencil that team's number one target in as the top play. Brown has caught three of those 12 touchdowns and has a total of 21 receptions for 177 yards over the last two weeks. The Jets' pass defense ranks near the middle of the pack, but Antonio Brown's speed and route running makes him virtually matchup-proof on a weekly basis.
Julio Jones (ATL) at TB - $8,300
In Jones' last three weeks, he's totaled only 13 receptions for a shade under 175 yards. In Week 9, he saw only six targets, marking the first time he was held under eight on the season. It's also no surprise that this Falcons team isn't winning with this current production. Coming off a bye, the Falcons will be fully rested to face a Tampa Bay team they thoroughly dismantled back in Week 3. In that game, Jones caught nine passes for 161 yards and two touchdowns. Look for him to get back on track this week.
Calvin Johnson (DET) vs. MIA - $7,700 (P - Ankle)
This one is as a "play at your own risk," but the return of Johnson seems to be imminent. Unfortunately for the Lions and Johnson, it will come against one of the NFL's best secondaries in Miami. However, Johnson has made a career of fending off the league's best corners. He should be lightly owned in large field tournaments, and quarterback Matthew Stafford is going to be eager to have his favorite target back.
Tight End
1. Jimmy Graham (NO) vs. SF - $7,400
2. Julius Thomas (DEN) at OAK - $6,100
3. Greg Olson (CAR) at PHI - $5,700
4. Martellus Bennett (CHI) at GB - $5,400
5. Travis Kelce (KC) at BUF - $4,700
6. Owen Daniels (BAL) vs. TEN - $4,200
7. Mychal Rivera (OAK) vs. DEN - $4,300
8. Charles Clay (MIA) at DET - $3,300
9. Heath Miller (PIT) at NYJ - $ 4,700
10. Larry Donnell (NYG) at SEA - $5,300
Notable Byes: Rob Gronkowski (NE), Antonio Gates (SD), Jordan Reed (WAS)
Jimmy Graham (NO) vs. SF - $7,400
With Graham finally back to 100%, he is easier to rank week to week. As much as I love Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas, when Graham is healthy it will take a lot to knock him off the top of my rankings. Though expected, that will always come at a high price. Last week against Carolina, Graham caught seven passes for 83 yards and a touchdown. He now has a touchdown in both games since returning from injury. This week, he will face the 49ers, who do have a strong pass defense, but nothing can contain Graham, and he should see double-digits targets.
Martellus Bennett (CHI) at GB - $5,400
As previously stated with regards to Rodgers and Forte, most all Packers and Bears are in play this week. Bennett caught nine passes for 134 yards back in Week 4 against Green Bay and has a history of being a thorn in their side. He has double-digit fantasy totals in his last three weeks and will be a popular target of Jay Cutler's on Sunday.
Mychal Rivera (OAK) vs. DEN - $4,300
Rivera pretty much game out of nowhere, but he's too hard to ignore now. Over Rivera's last two weeks, he has 15 receptions for 121 yards and two touchdowns. Included in that are 20 total targets and a 75% reception rate. He seems to be developing a good rapport with quarterback Derek Carr and will face Denver this week. With Denver favored in this game, it is safe to assume the Raiders will be passing the ball sooner rather than later, leading to what could be another double-digit target game for Rivera. He is the perfect salary saver tight end this week.
Kicker
1. Dan Bailey (DAL) at JAX - $4,100
2. Phil Dawson (SF) at NO - $3,700
3. Justin Tucker (BAL) vs. TEN - $4,000
4. Mason Crosby (GB) vs. CHI - $3,800
The Kicker selection will change week-to-week based upon then highest over/under of specific games. In most cases, you will want to select the lowest-priced kicker with the highest over/under. With Vegas lines being high across the board and Draftster tightening up kicker prices, the best options remain the most consistent kickers in the NFL. If you're looking to save a little money, Robbie Gould checks in at the lowest price with the highest Vegas total.
Defense
1. Seattle (vs. NYG) - $3,900
2. Arizona (vs. STL) - $4,100
3. Dallas (at JAX) - $3,900
4. Denver (at OAK) - $4,100
As opposed to kickers, defenses are selected based on the lowest over/under totals in a given week, combined with the best matchup. This week's total between Seattle and New York sits at 43.5, placing it toward the bottom. With the Seattle defense playing tough lately, and the Giants prone to turnovers, Seattle grabs the top spot this week.
Salary Saver Plays
QB: Mark Sanchez ($5,000)
RB: Frank Gore ($4,000), Charles Sims ($3,300)
WR: Davante Adams ($3,800), Andre Holmes ($3,700)
TE: Mychal Rivera ($4,300), Charles Clay ($3,300)
Last week's lineup
QB: Robert Griffin (15.44)
RB: Arian Foster (19.90)
RB: Jeremy Hill (32.30)
WR: DeAndre Hopkins (26.50)
WR: Mike Wallace (8.00)
TE: Travis Kelce (16.70)
FLEX: DeMarco Murray (13.00)
K: Justin Tucker (6.00)
D: Chiefs (7.00)
TOTAL: 144.84
Instead of continuing my trend of either being really good or really bad, I decided to stick it out in the middle this week. I turned in a pretty average point total, in which two high-priced plays didn't pan out.
I stuck to my "always play a minimum priced quarterback" theory and went with RG3. I believe no matter what, you should always play the minimum priced guy, as quarterback numbers are generally in line with each other. It's a lot easier for a quarterback to throw two garbage time touchdowns than it is for a given receiver to catch them. Nevertheless, RG3 had an underwhelming return, totaling only 15 points.
However, with the money saved on Griffin, I was able to roster both Arian Foster and DeMarco Murray. Now, I wasn't in love with Murray's matchup, but he has proved himself to be matchup proof at this point. Of course, this week, he struggled. Foster left late with a knee injury, though he was on pace for a huge game. My third running back, Jeremy Hill, was also a money-saver. Hill tallied two touchdowns and 150 yards on the ground in the absence of Gio Bernard.
Moving to wide receiver, I went with a play I figured would be slightly low percentage in DeAndre Hopkins. I was in love with the Philadelphia/Houston matchup and felt it was going to be a high-scoring affair. Hopkins did his part, tallying over 100 yards and a touchdown. To compliment him, I went with another risk in Mike Wallace. I have been down on Wallace all year due to his low reception numbers, but after some "locker room rumblings," I thought this might be the week Miami feeds Wallace to maybe quiet him down. Not the case. The Dolphins had no issue pilling it on the Chargers in a huge blowout, but none of Tannehill's touchdowns went to Wallace.
Travis Kelce, Justin Tucker, and the Chiefs' defense rounded out my roster in what was just an average week. However, 144 points was enough to cash in the Terrell Owens Challenge and place in double ups.
