This article is part of our FantasyDraft NFL series.
The NFL schedule returns to some normality this week with only four teams on bye, but daily fantasy rosters may look a little weird due to the matchups. For starters, the highest-priced quarterback at FantasyDraft is Ben Roethlisberger ($13,600), only because he plays the Colts. Big Ben hasn't topped 19 fantasy points in a game this season. That's only the start and part of the reason I decided to take a big gamble with my quarterback for the week.
QUARTERBACK
Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB vs. NYJ ($10,300): I had Josh McCown ($10,900) in this spot, but saw Fitzpatrick was a bit cheaper and in a better spot, even without Mike Evans. I dove into the numbers and noticed Tampa's defense is actually decent in home games, which led me to Fitz. The Jets already have a bad defense, which has been worse in road games where their only win came against the Browns. New York even let the Dolphins score 31 against them in Miami. With Evans out, look for Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard to be used in more of a receiving role with DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries on the outside. The Bucs should hit at least 20 points and Fitzpatrick already has four touchdowns in his limited time this season.
RUNNING BACK
Le'Veon Bell, PIT at IND ($17,800): After saving money at quarterback, it's only logical to go with the highest-priced running back. Bell has reached at least 15 fantasy points in the last six games and there's no reason he won't here. The Colts haven't been terrible against the run, but are worst in the league at defending RBs in the passing game (according to Football Outsiders' DVOA). While Bell only has eight receptions in the last three games, that's still not a stat you want to have against him. Throw in the recent history between these teams -- with the Steelers averaging more than 40 points in the last three meetings -- and Bell is almost a guarantee for 20 fantasy points.
LeSean McCoy, BUF vs. NO ($14,300): This game won't be a repeat for the Bills after the Jets loss last Thursday. Look for Buffalo to turn to McCoy early and often and, while the Saints are playing good defense, their No. 28 rank (per DVOA) against the run says otherwise. Prior to the Jets game, McCoy had at least 20 touches in five straight games and he'll reach that total here, which should produce 15 fantasy points at a minimum.
WIDE RECEIVER
Golden Tate, DET vs. CLE ($12,000):Antonio Brown ($17,900) and A.J. Green ($13,800) should be decent plays, but I'm going for consistency with my receivers this week. Tate has seven receptions in each of the last three games and nothing about the Browns secondary suggests that trend will stop. Tate looked healthy last week and shouldn't be bothered by his shoulder, which makes him a safe pick for cheap.
Mohamed Sanu, ATL vs. DAL ($10,900): Sanu is kind of in that same boat as Tate, although at a level below. In every game he's finished, Sanu has either a touchdown or six receptions and 45 yards. Those numbers don't jump off the page, but Julio Jones ($14,500) is constantly injured and there's no telling if he'll play the entire way in this game. Either way, the Falcons will need to pass and Dallas ranks 27th against No. 2 WRs, according to DVOA.
TIGHT END
Tyler Kroft, CIN at TEN ($6,600): I've nailed my last few bargain tight ends and could have another successful week with Kroft. He has reached nine fantasy points in four of his last five games with an average of four receptions. At this price, that's good enough. The Titans have good numbers against tight ends, but that's due to the level of tight ends faced so I'm choosing to ignore that stat.
FLEX
Jerick McKinnon, MIN at WAS ($11,200): I can't remember the last time I recommended McKinnon, but here we are. He's been the back to own in Minnesota with at least 17 touches and three receptions in each of the last four games. That won't change in what should be a lower-scoring and close contest against Washington. The Redskins have a good run defense, but McKinnon has already produced against teams with as good of defense or better than Washington's (Cleveland, Baltimore, Green Bay, Chicago). Expecting another 25 fantasy points may be a stretch, but my threshold of 15 will be attainable.
Adam Humphries, TB vs. NYJ ($6,600): There are a lot of solid value plays this week and you can go a number of places, but Humphries stood out to me at an extremely cheap price. The last time he finished with more than 30 yards was when Fitzpatrick played two quarters and a series against the Cardinals. Humphries finished with six catches for 51 yards in that game. Without the 8-10 targets Evans usually gets, Humphries should see plenty of work against the Jets and eight targets at a minimum is a good possibility.
DEFENSE
Chicago Bears vs. GB ($5,100): I was set to spend a little more on my defense and then noticed the Bears. The price doesn't make sense for a defense that's averaged almost 15 fantasy points over the last four games and has never been below seven. The Packers are on the road on a short week with Brett Hundley at quarterback.
