This article is part of our NFL DFS Pick 'Em series.
Underdog NFL DFS Week 5 Picks
Week 5 is upon us and after an outstanding Thursday night game, we'll make some picks on the rest of the action. As a reminder of some of the main tools used when evaluating the weekend's picks, the defense vs. position page offers overall numbers that defensive units have allowed and also a detailed view on a weekly level. Even with a growing sample, one outlier performance can significantly shift season averages. The pace of play/pass rate page is also useful to see how teams have preferred to craft their offense early in the season. Finally, we have our player props page that uses a number of different factors to help identify the best plays available.
These picks are specific to offerings available on Underdog, and if you want to get in on the action at the site, use the Underdog promo code ROTONFL when signing up at this link for a deposit match:
Higher
Mike Williams 
vs. MIN - Higher than 30.5 receiving yards
Having confidence in Williams isn't just the result of the box score we saw in Week 4 against Denver. Of his 74 routes this season, 30 came in Week 4. He only drew a modest 16.7 percent target per route run rate, but the play-calling/offensive philosophy in New York isn't as dire as some would suggest. There's a narrative that the Jets play slow and don't pass, but the numbers don't bear that out. They run a league-average 61.3 plays per game and have 3.8 percent pass rate over expectation. To round out the analysis, this is an exceptionally low total for Williams and it's likely that we won't see a number this low again.
Amari Cooper 
at WAS - Higher than 52.5 receiving yards
Cooper has the sixth-most targets in the league paired with disastrous efficiency (43.2 percent catch rate and 0.85 yards per route run), making him an interesting evaluation each week. However, even with an underperforming Deshaun Watson targeting him, that level of inefficiency is unlikely to continue. He's only topped 51.5 receiving yards once this season, but we can flashback to last week's game during which Cooper's had an 82-yard touchdown that was called back due a controversial holding call. In Week 5, he also faces among the Commanders, one of the best matchups in the league.
Matthew Stafford 
vs. GB - Higher than 232.5 passing yards
It feels as if the Rams' offense could collapse at any point, but the unit has functioned remarkably well despite losing Cooper Kupp (ankle), Puka Nacua (knee) and several offensive linemen. Stafford has still averaged 7.5 yards per carry and a 68.5 percent completion percentage. This may not be sustainable in the long-term, but the Packers haven't been a tough matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Green Bay has allowed 7.82 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks (sixth-highest in the league), with Anthony Richardson being the only quarterback to average below 7.7 yards per attempt in a game. There are two potential concerns. The first is volume, as the Rams are running their offense through Kyren Williams (-6.9 percent pass rate over expectation). In addition, this number is moving up (225 on Wednesday), so we don't want to keep chasing it up.
For those that are believers in Stafford, this game offers a few opportunities for correlative picks. Tutu Atwell (46.5 receiving yards) is another good over selection. Targets have condensed around he and Jordan Whittington, with Atwell being the big-play threat. Finally, we can also flip to other side and look to Jordan Love (over 22 completions or 257.5 passing yards). The Rams have allowed a league-high 9.1 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Tre Tucker 
at DEN - Higher than 38.5 receiving yards
Tucker was outplayed by Jakobi Meyers in Week 4 without Davante Adams (hamstring) on the field, but he still led the team in routes run so his baseline level of the involvement in the offense should be safe. Adams won't be on the field in Week 5 and may not be with Las Vegas again. The one concern with the matchup is Patrick Surtain's effect on opposing wide receivers this season, but we should expect that he'll be primarily assigned to Meyers rather than Tucker.
George Pickens 
vs. DAL – Higher than 53.5 receiving yards
Pickens is the unquestioned top target in Pittsburgh and should have enough big-play ability to hit the over on this number even if the Steelers return to a more conservative offensive game plan. The Cowboys also aren't an imposing matchup, particularly in the absence of DeMarcus Lawrence (foot) and Micah Parsons (ankle) – greatly diminishing their pass rush.
Unders
Trevor Lawrence 
vs. IND - Lower than 241.5 passing yards
Given what Lawrence has accomplished this season, this seems like about the easiest under we could ask for. There are a few sticking points though. While he has yet to hit this number through four games, Buffalo, Cleveland and Houston all rank inside the top six in fewest yards per attempt allowed. Meanwhile, the Colts allow the seventh-most yards per attempt, in what is Lawrence's best matchup of the season. There's certainly a chance Lawrence goes over but given what we've seen of the offense I'll take the under until proven otherwise.
C.J. Stroud 
vs. BUF - Lower than 258.5 passing yards
Stroud had a standout game against the hapless and injury-plagued Jaguars' secondary in Week 4, but he's otherwise had a disappointing start to the season. In contrast and despite what we saw in primetime on Sunday night in Week 4, he's headed for a matchup against the toughest defense in the league on a per-attempt basis in Week 5. The key to his pick will likely be which team controls the script of the game, as Buffalo plays at among the slowest paces in the league while Houston is the fastest. If the Texans jump out to an early lead, this has the potential to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week, in which case Stroud will almost certainly hit the over.
Kyler Murray 
at SF - Lower than 21.5 completions
The Arizona offense is getting Trey McBride back for this matchup, which should help their passing improve from a dismal Week 4 performance in a dream matchup against the Commanders. Setting aside Murray's performance, the Cardinals' offense has played slow and through the run game this season and they'll likely do the same to keep their suspect defense off the field against the 49ers. Murray has also failed to complete more than 21 passes this season.
De'Von Achane 
at NE Lower than 75.5 rushing + receiving yards
All Dolphins skill-position players have been hurt by the absence of Tua Tagovailoa (head) and the offense has been dismal overall. That alone would be enough for me to side with the under on Achane, but Raheem Mostert will also be back in the mix for Miami. Mostert had around half of the touches of Achane in Week 1, but in the current state of the offense, any decreased volume will be a problem.
