This article is part of our Four-Down Duel series.
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50/50 or Heads Up
In 50/50 or Heads-Up contests, always aim for a lineup that has a higher floor over a higher ceiling. In 50/50 contests, the top half of all entries finish in the money, meaning you don't have to pick a high-ceiling lineup that shoots for the moon. Build these lineups with the players that are essential to winning regardless of their price.
Colin Kaepernick, $7800 – Kaepernick is coming off his best fantasy game of the season and his salary is $2000 less than the elite options at the position. He has a plethora of targets to choose from and arguably the best receiving options in football as far as depth is concerned (Brandon Lloyd is the fifth option!). This game has one of the highest over/unders of the week and the 49ers will have to score points to keep up with Peyton Manning. Kaepernick should earn a few extra points with his legs as well.
Jamaal Charles, $8500 – Your first reaction is that Charles should be avoided with the Chargers defense playing at such a high level, but San Diego's run defense hasn't been tested much, as opponents are mainly throwing on them. The Chargers defense has given up 4.7 yards per carry, which is the seventh-worst mark in the league. Plus, the Chiefs are coming off a bye, which means Charles will have fresh legs. He remains one of the best running backs in the league, so take advantage of using him when his salary is slightly deflated.
Le'Veon Bell, $8400 – It's a good week to go with a couple of expensive running backs based on matchups and pricing. Bell hasn't scored since Week 1, but he has been able to stay productive with double-digit fantasy points every game this season. He is one of the league's best pass-catchers out of the backfield, averaging 4.7 catches and 42 receiving yards per game. The Steelers will look to bounce back with a home game against Houston, who has had trouble defending the run (4.4 yards per carry, 125.7 rushing yards per game).
Golden Tate, $6700 – Tate is coming off a not-so-spectacular 7.9 fantasy point day, but that seems to be his floor with the Lions this season, especially with Calvin Johnson (ankle) ailing. Tate hasn't had fewer than five grabs this season, and the upside is there for him to have a 100-yard day with seven or eight catches, a feat he accomplished in Week 4 and 5. The Saints have looked very bad on defense and are without a few key players due to injury.
Brandin Cooks, $6600 – There's a lot to like about Cooks if Jimmy Graham (shoulder) plays, and there are even more reasons to be bullish about the rookie wideout if the Saints star tight end sits. Cooks has seen double-digit targets in two of his last three games and offers extra value in any PPR format. The Lions defense has been outstanding this season, but the Saints have had two weeks to prepare and will play in a dome. Cooks should also see a carry or two and could be the focal point of the offense if Graham is out.
Reuben Randle, $6500 – With Victor Cruz (knee) out for the season, there's a good chance you won't be able to get Randle at a price this low again. He's been heavily targeted by Eli Manning in the red zone with 12 targets and should now be the No.1 receiving option in the Giants offense. The Cowboys defense has been good this season, but they're coming off an emotional win while the Giants should be looking to avenge their embarrassing divisional loss against the Eagles.
Travis Kelce, $5800 – This price still is still too low based Kelce's production this season. He's scored in three straight games and has had at least 8.5 fantasy points in each of his last four contests. Don't worry about pairing him with Charles; both players have a good chance to put together productive fantasy games.
Cairo Santos, $4500 – Santos is the only minimum priced kicker, and while there typically is a lot of variance at the position, he's worth a gamble. Chiefs coach Andy Reid has typically had success coming off a bye and the weather should be perfect for kicking Sunday.
Cleveland Browns, $5200 – This pick here is inspired by the old saying "if it isn't broke, don't fix it." Opposing defenses have crushed the Jaguars this season and the Browns have some playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. Don't overthink this one.
Tournaments
For tournament lineups, you have to look at upside and use some "outside-the-box" picks if you want to cash. Don't use this lineup completely, as there is a lower floor here with a lot of players. Instead, use a mix of studs with a few of the cheaper options listed below, which could net the top overall prize.
Matthew Stafford, $8300 – It's hard to deny that so much of Stafford's value over the last few seasons is directly related to Calvin Johnson. Stafford likely won't have Megatron this week, and given the quarterback's poor stat line from a week ago, he'll likely have low ownership levels in tournament play. However, the Saints can put up points and Stafford might have to throw a lot to keep the Lions in the game. Reggie Bush should be back against his former team and he's always a threat to take the ball the distance on a swing pass out of the backfield. Tate is a viable receiving option and there's some upside with the rest of the secondary receivers.
Eddie Lacy, $7700 – Lacy has been a pretty big bust so far, as he has worked himself into a timeshare with James Starks and has averaged over 3.3 yards per carry in just one game this season. This week, though, he gets one of the worst run defenses in the league in the Panthers, who are giving up 5.5 yards per carry. Both Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill had big fantasy games against the Panthers last week, and Lacy might only need 15 touches to have a productive outing. The Packers should play in front most of this game and try to establish the run.
Percy Harvin, $7200 – Six touches, negative one yards. No one saw such a poor performance coming from Harvin last week, and overall he hasn't been as productive as most thought. His price really hasn't dropped yet, so along with the lack of production, it's hard to see him on many rosters. Still, it was only two weeks ago he had three touchdowns called back and if Seattle goes back to the drawing board and calls more vertical plays for him, he could bounce back.
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