DFS Football 101: FanDuel RB Tourney Strategy

This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.

Let's start with a breakdown of where a running back points come from and which categories contribute the most.

Average Running Back Points by Category Breakdown

The hierarchy of points contribution are rushing yards, rushing TDs, receiving yards, receptions, receiving TDs.

+6 percent on rushing TDs, -2 percent on receptions and -4 percent on receiving TDs.

How to Select Running Backs for Tournaments

• Target is at least 2.8x (Projection * Salary / 1000) and 18 points.

Through Week 7, 54 running backs hit at least 18 points; 46 of those also hit the 2.8x value we are looking for. When you start to look at players at $8,000 or higher, the raw points become more important vs. the multiplier.

On average, you are looking at eight backs a week who will hit the targets you need to win or place high in tournaments. Considering you don't want to go outside the top 36 and usually the top 24, that will put your odds at about 25-28 percent on hitting.

Here is the weekly breakdown for RBs who have hit at least 18 points:

Week 1 – 6
Week 2 – 7
Week 3 – 10
Week 4 – 10
Week 5 – 4
Week 6 – 10
Week 7 – 7

What does 18 points look like for a running back? It can come in a variety of ways.

• RB with no impact in the passing game
120 yards, 1 TD or 60 yards, 2 TD

• RB with some impact in the passing game
120 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 40 yards receiving, 0 TD
90 yards rushing, 2 receptions, 20 yards receiving, 1 TD
60 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 40 yards receiving, 1 TD

• RB with little impact in the rushing game
0 yards rushing, 10 receptions, 70 yards receiving, 1 TD
20 yards rushing, 8 receptions, 60 yards receiving, 1 TD

We hear all the time about ownership percentages in tournaments. Well, with a limited number of running backs in the pool, it is hard to fade all of the popular plays. One of the better strategies is looking at the top 6 and seeing who might have the best matchup but is being overlooked. Another optimal strategy is fading the super cheap RB of the week for a player with a similar salary range.

Some weeks you just have to play the chalk and take two RBs who are 20-30 percent owned because of weather, byes, matchups, slate, etc. In that case, what I look to do is have some 5-10 percent players owned at other positions to give me an edge. If everyone is on a particular defense, look for a defense with one of the chalk RBs who is underowned. For example, a good play Sunday would have been Ezekiel Elliott with the Dallas DST.

Here is a chart of all the RBs who have it the tournament thresholds through Week 7.

$4,500-$4,900 – 6
$5,000-$5,900 – 10
$,6000-$6,900 – 13
$7,000-$7,900 – 10
$8,000-$8,900 – 13
$9,000 and higher – 2

As you can see from the salary distribution, the RBs can come from any price range.

• Average Score – 24.3

• Average Value – 3.6x

• Average Vegas Team Total – 22.7

16 – 1
17 – 4
18 – 3
19 – 1
20 – 4
21 – 10
22 – 9
23 – 2
24 – 4
25 – 6
26 – 3
27 – 4
28 or higher – 3

There is an increase once you get to 21 points or higher because most team totals fall between 21-23. But in general, the higher the Vegas total, the better chance the running back has of hitting value.

• 29 were at home, 25 on the road

• Teams that allowed the most opposing RBs
IND, LAR - 5
GB, TB, DAL – 3

• Players who have qualified multiple times

Todd Gurley – 5
Leonard Fournette, Le'Veon Bell – 4
Kareem Hunt – 3
Aaron Jones, Carlos Hyde, Chris Thompson, Devonta Freeman, Ezekiel Elliott, Jerick McKinnon, Jordan Howard, LeSean McCoy, Mark Ingram, Melvin Gordon – 2

Gurley – Huge bounceback, new coaching staff, improved line and QB

Fournette – Rookie in a heavy run offense, good defense

Bell – Been a stud for years, heavy usage in the passing game

Hunt – Took advantage of Ware injury, Andy Reid offense

*The rest of the group are players who took over starting roles due to injury or have a significant percentage of their teams offense.

So when you are looking at your running backs for DFS in Week 9, keep these things in mind and narrow your player pool to about 4-6 RBs who fit this criteria.