This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
The most difficult thing about surviving Week 1 of the NFL is waiting for Week 2. Thank the Football Gods for adding in Thursday games. It really helps us DFS players get our fix. The most important part of Week 2 is to not jump to conclusions. Every year we see a random player have a huge Week 1 and then promptly fade in to obscurity. Don't make decisions based on emotions; this will hurt you more than help. The best example of making decisions based on emotions is when I used Victor Cruz last week. I am a big Giants fan, and I had faith in the team's new offense. To put things nicely, he cost me some money. Week 1 is where we learn from our mistakes, and Week 2 is where we adjust. Let's take a look at what's on deck for this weekend's slate of games.
Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3) (53.5 O/U)
No better way to start than with the highest point total. This game has the makings of a shootout. Philly's banged up offensive line is concerning, though. The Eagles will be starting two new players in their offensive line, which could be disastrous. Luckily for them, last season's sack leader Robert Mathis is out for the year. On the other side, the Colts' running game is worrisome. Trent Richardson continues to look like he is CFL bound, and an Ahmad Bradshaw injury is inevitable. With that being said there are a few players I would use in this game despite the high over/under.
Players To Consider
Andrew Luck, QB, Colts – Luck is my No. 1 ranked quarterback this week. The Eagles secondary is too easy to exploit. With a great group of receivers, Luck should have no problem repeating last week's results.
Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts – Wayne should be relatively cheap across the industry. He makes a great WR2 for your DFS teams, and gets an even bigger bump in value on DraftKings due to the full PPR scoring format.
Zach Ertz , TE , Eagles – Ertz isn't Julius Thomas, but he will cause problems for the Colts' defense. Coming off a great Week 1 in which he posted a 3/77/1 stat line on five targets, Ertz should be on your radar.
Dallas Cowboys Vs. Tennessee Titans (-3) (49.5 O/U)
This game will be heavily targeted amongst DFS players. I might be the only one who didn't think the Cowboys defense was that bad. All their mistakes came on offense, which lead to scoring drives for the 49ers. No, I don't think the Cowboys defense is elite, but picking on them last week wasn't as beneficial as most thought. The Titans defense is also misleading, as they held the Chiefs to 10 points, but Andy Reid's poor coaching is to blame. What do I expect from this game? It's simple: Tony Romo made a lot of mistakes last week which will lead to the Cowboys taking a more conservative approach by focusing more on their running game. The Titans already run the ball a lot and will continue to do so. With both teams focusing on their running games, the total should stay under.
Players To Consider
Demarco Murray, RB, Cowboys – Murray was a beast last week, easily the player who stood out the most for the Cowboys. The Titans rush defense wasn't good last season, and Murray could be in line for another monster game.
Kendall Wright, WR, Titans – Wright is the Titans clear-cut WR1. The Dallas secondary is weak, and Jake Locker should look to exploit them by any means necessary. Wright is reasonably priced across the industry and you could easily slot him in as a WR3.
Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys – I expect Witten to bounce back from last week's dud. Witten's price has plummeted across the industry, which makes him an excellent value play if you aren't looking to pay for an elite tight end.
Delanie Walker, TE, Titans – Walker might be my favorite player in this game just based on price. The Cowboys struggled immensely against Vernon Davis last week, and Walker is the same type of player (former teammates). If Walker can repeat last week's performance, he will offer a great return on investment.
New York Jets Vs. Green Bay Packers (-8) (46 O/U)
The prices of Packers players went down across the industry due to their game against the Seahawks. This is how DFS players benefit from not overreacting to Week 1. The Packers offense should dominate the Jets secondary, especially Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. The Jets running game looked against Oakland, but the Raiders will make plenty of running backs look good this season. I wouldn't get too excited over Chris Johnson or Chris Ivory until that platoon gets settled.
Players To Consider
Jarrett Boykin, WR, Packers – Let me make this clear – this is strictly a contrarian GPP play, do not use Boykin in cash games. Boykin has huge upside considering the Jets defense will be on Cobb and Nelson like white on rice.
Green Bay D/ST – Like Boykin, this is strictly a tournament play. Geno Smith is known to make bad decisions, and the Packers defense can put enough pressure on him to make his Sunday a nightmare. This pick is a bit of a reach, but you need to take risks to win big.
Chris Johnson, RB, Jets – Yes, I said don't get too excited about the Jets' running backs, but it really is hard to ignore the Packers giving up 207 rushing yards last week. That being said, Johnson is as boom or bust as they come – he is known to ruin fantasy player's weeks before they start. Tread carefully.
Other options
Here are a few more players to consider this week:
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Texans – This is my GPP pick of the week at quarterback. He is dirt cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings, not to mention he faces a pathetic Raiders defense. Fitzpatrick might not be the big arm most people will target, but he's one of the smartest quarterbacks in the NFL. With Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins and Arian Foster at his disposable, Fitzpatrick will surely put up some points.
Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers – I told you I was worried about Frank Gore getting touchdowns vultured last week and for good reason. Hyde showed that Gore's clock is ticking. If you watched the 49ers game last week, it was clear that Hyde was superior to Gore. I have no problem slotting Hyde in my flex spots. Let's hope for some more vultured touchdowns.
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos – Thomas has seen his price drop quite significantly since last week. I currently have Thomas as my No. 1 receiver for Week 2. I warned you guys last week about the Chiefs overrated secondary, and you should expect Peyton Manning to exploit them on Sunday.
Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers – I expect a much better outing from the Buccaneers this weekend. Jackson is priced at $5,000 on DraftKings and he has the potential to be a top-five receiver on any given Sunday. Despite a price tag more in line with a WR2 or WR3, Jackson remains a WR1.
Miami Dolphins, D/ST - The Dolphins are a very undervalued team. I would not be shocked if they won the AFC East. There is a lot to like about their D/ST, especially going up against E.J. Manuel and the Bills. Manuel is prone to make mistakes, and with Cameron Wake in the mix, the Bills young quarterback is in trouble.
Again, remember not to overreact to Week 1, my friends. Reacting based on emotions will not end well. This is a marathon not a sprint, so don't get too cute with certain players (*cough Allen Hurns cough*). If you have any questions before Sunday just leave them in the comments and I will respond as soon as I can. I am here to help you win. Good luck with Week 2. a.k.a #OverreactionWeek. See you next week.
