This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
Week 1 is FINALLY here, and before you get started in your daily fantasy football lineup making, I want to cover some of the things that most new players need to be mindful of before clicking on the enter button for their teams.These "tips" are mostly geared toward the new and beginner player, but even an experienced player might pick up a thing or two. Some will sound obvious, while others not so much, but they are all things that if you incorporate into your weekly strategy should help put you in the winning column.
I've built my "brand" on helping new and beginner players learn how to play daily fantasy sports over the last five years and these are some of the most common things I have come across.
Research prior to making lineups
OK, of course I'm going to do some research? Well, what I mean by this is not having any preparation or research done before getting on the site, making a lineup and entering contests.
One of the most common mistakes I see new players make is they jump right into logging into a site, pick a contest, then start making a lineup. Would you jump into your workout routine before warming up? If you don't warm up, the likelihood of injury during your workout is higher. Same thing with daily fantasy football.
You need to have your research done first and on a separate document – whether it is Word, Excel or a notebook piece of paper. Put down at least three quarterbacks, six running backs, 10 wide receivers, three tight ends, three kickers and three defenses with the salaries that you feel good about that week. Rank each player in the order you like them and then go on to the site to start making lineups.
Make several lineups using all of the different combinations of players that you like. Do not just go with the first lineup. As you make lineups, you will see the lineup construction process and get more comfortable with it. Think of this like mock drafting for your season-long leagues. Would you enter a draft with no cheat sheet? Would you enter a draft without doing at least one mock draft prior? You have to do the same thing with daily fantasy football.
2. Do not overlook any D or K positions
It can be tempting to just take the cheapest kicker and/or defense each week without any strategy, but what you need to realize is that the average kicker and defense usually represent about 8-10 points per week, which accounts for 12-15 percent of your total target (120 points on FanDuel). By implying some strategy, you can at least put yourself in a better position to cash each weekly.
Strategy for Kickers
Pay $4,500 (minimum kicker salary on FanDuel). On average about 20-30 percent of the kicker pool will be priced at $4,500 each week. I narrow down the field by only taking kickers who are at home and with implied team totals of 25 points or higher. You should find one or two each week.
Another strategy that plays into this is when a new kicker lands on a passing offense.
Last year, Chris Boswell was $4,500 six times (five were at home) and produced an average of 11.7 fantasy points per game in those contests.
Dustin Hopkins landed in Washington and was $4,500 seven times and hit for an average of 9.0 PPG.
Josh Lambo was $4,500 eight times and scored 8.9 PPG, but all of his production was early in the year when the Chargers were healthy.
Matt Prater was $4,500 a whopping 10 times for the Lions. He put up 8.9 PPG, most coming in the second half of the season when Jim Bob Cooter took over as offensive coordinator for the Lions.
Why pay the extra $500 for a kicker when you can find the 9-10 points per game you need at $4,500 just about every week anyways?
Kickers that fall into my system for Week 1 – Chris Boswell ($4,600), Matt Bryant ($4,500), Nick Novak ($4,500).
Strategy for Defenses
While you pay down for kickers when you can, always pay up for defense on FanDuel.
This chart shows the average salary, points, count, implied defense total (Vegas) and "FDX" which is Points/Salary *1,000. FDX is a true indicator of where the value lies. Notice that $5,000 and greater is where the FDX is highest.
SALARY | AVG of FP | COUNT of FP | AVG of IMPLIED DEF TOTAL | AVG of FDX |
$4,000 | 6.72 | 46 | 31.65 | 1.68 |
$4,100 | 5.72 | 36 | 25.17 | 1.40 |
$4,200 | 6.57 | 42 | 24.60 | 1.56 |
$4,300 | 6.08 | 52 | 23.50 | 1.41 |
$4,400 | 7.15 | 62 | 23.40 | 1.62 |
$4,500 | 8.19 | 57 | 22.54 | 1.82 |
$4,600 | 6.95 | 58 | 21.94 | 1.51 |
$4,700 | 9.02 | 47 | 21.10 | 1.92 |
$4,800 | 8.61 | 33 | 20.11 | 1.79 |
$4,900 | 7.50 | 18 | 20.50 | 1.53 |
$5,000 | 9.80 | 15 | 18.60 | 1.96 |
$5,100 | 8.78 | 9 | 19.44 | 1.72 |
$5,200 | 10.25 | 12 | 19.65 | 1.97 |
$5,300 | 12.29 | 7 | 17.82 | 2.32 |
$5,400 | 6.00 | 8 | 16.78 | 1.11 |
Grand Total | 7.46 | 502 | 23.1 | 1.65 |
Notice the majority of the defenses are priced LESS THAN $5,000 each week. It would appear there is an opportunity to exploit the salary structure on FanDuel because the range is only $4,000-$5,400.
The teams that fit my system in Week 1 are – Chiefs, Texans, Seahawks and Cardinals. I'm leaning toward having a lot of Seahawks and Texans, as the Chiefs are not 100 percent healthy.