2024 Pirelli Italian Grand Prix
Location: Monza, Italy
Course: Autodromo Nazionale di Monza
Course Length: 5.79km
Laps: 53
Italian Grand Prix Race Preview
The tone of the season continues to shift in remarkable ways. We've gone from what looked to be another season for Max Verstappen and Red Bull to sleepwalk their way to double titles to both the Driver and Constructors' Championships being in danger. That's in part to Red Bull's pace advantage decreasing and the poor form of Sergio Perez, but it's also because of the improvements McLaren and the other top contending teams have made. Ferrari and Mercedes remain teams more sensitive to specific tracks, but I'd expect a big weekend for Ferreri as they'll look to optimize their home race.
There is some intrigue further down the field as well. As Aston Martin continues to fade, RB Honda and Alpine are competing to fill in the void as consistent point scorers. We also get the debut of Franco Colapinto for Williams. He had a clean day through two free practices Friday and will look to maintain a steadier hand than the departed Logan Sargeant.
Key Stats at Monza
- Races: 78
- Winners from pole: 26
- Winners from top-5 starters: 66
- Winners from top-10 starters: 77
Previous 10 Monza Winners
2023- Max Verstappen
2022- Max Verstappen
2021 - Daniel Ricciardo
2020 - Pierre Gasly
2019 - Charles Leclerc
2018 - Lewis Hamilton
2017 - Lewis Hamilton
2016 - Nico Rosberg
2015 - Lewis Hamilton
2014 - Lewis Hamilton
The circuit is known as "The Temple of Speed," an appropriate nickname given that over three-quarters of the lap is taken at full speed. It is also one of the fastest tracks on the calendar, which does create a bit more variance in results and makes winning pole less important than at other tracks.
The track will look very similar on televisions to past editions, but there have been some changes to one of the most iconic tracks on the calendar. It was repaved, taking the coarseness out of the track, and curbs were removed from the iconic chicane at turns 9 and 10 and altered in other areas of the track. Drivers have expressed their skepticism, but the idea is to make the racing better – something we can all get behind.
The tires are the three softest compounds, unsurprising given the high-speed nature of the track. Pirelli has offered some warning in that regard, however. The track is expected to evolve drastically throughout the weekend given the new pavement, and similarly, the track could be hotter than in past years—leading to additional tire wear. The traditional strategy is one stop, but that will be another thing that could change and is worth keeping an eye on.
DraftKings Value Picks for the Italian Grand Prix
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
DraftKings Tier One Values
Lando Norris- $13,600
Max Verstappen - $13,300
DraftKings Tier Two Values
Lewis Hamilton - $10,200
Charles Leclerc - $9,800
George Russell - $9,600
DraftKings Tier Three Values
Alex Albon - $5,000
Nico Hulkenberg- $4,800
Pierre Gasly - $4,200
Yuki Tsunoda - $4,000
DraftKings Constructor Values
McLaren - $12,500
Ferrari - $9,700
Alpine - $3,000
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Italian Grand Prix
Captain – Charles Leclerc- $14, 700
Oscar Piastri - $10,600
Fernando Alonso- $6,000
Pierre Gasly- $4,200
Yuki Tsunoda - $4,000
Constructor – Ferrari - $9,700
There have been some significant moves in pricing, so it's worth giving a brief overview before diving into detail about the picks. First is that Lando Norris has surpassed Max Verstappen in price. That makes sense given the current form of each, but is still a drastic shift. Sergio Perez has often been priced among the lite drivers due to his machinery, but that's no longer the case. Finally, Fernando Alonso has slipped into the midfield in terms of pricing.
Another unique part of this slate is that there are a minimum of five reasonable captain choices: the pair of McLaren drivers, the pair of Mercedes drivers and Max Verstappen. I'd prefer to stack my captain with their constructor, which eliminates Verstappen due to Perez's poor form and the negative trend of the Red Bull car.
Ultimately, I'll look to Ferrari. They optimize their car for this circuit each year, understanding the significance of this grand prix to their loyal fans. Even when the car hasn't been good, Leclerc has gotten the most of out of it. He has more ceiling than Carlos Sainz Jr., but Sainz has arguably the safest hands of anyone on the grid with the exception of Verstappen.
Aston Martin no longer has a clear pace edge on the upper end of the midfield, which probably makes Alonso overpriced. It would be reasonable to add another punt option in an effort to pay up for a third driver rather than roster Alonso. It's unclear who that would be, as Kick Sauber is hopelessly off the pace and Franco Colapinto is a complete unknown.
Albon should be a priority option for lineups. He checks in $1,000 cheaper but could beat Alonso outright. The Williams showed significant pace last weekend, but it was masked by a disqualification from qualifying and Logan Sargeant being unable to participate in qualifying.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Italian Grand Prix
Race Winner – Lando Norris (+125), Max Verstappen (+225), Charles Leclerc (+750)
Podium Finish – Charles Leclerc (-110)
Fastest Qualifier – Lando Norris (+165)
Race winner without the top teams – Alex Albon (-120), Nico Hulkenberg (+275)
As we saw on DK, the value has also shifted when looking at sportsbooks. For much of the last 18 months, it's been nearly worthless to wager on a race winner. As Verstappen's dominance has slipped, the value has reemerged. It's not likely that a Mercedes driver gets the win, but both Hamilton (+1400) and Geroge Russell (+2000) check in as substantial longshots.
We've explained the logic behind most of these picks already, but picking either McLaren as the top qualifier is a good bet. They've proven over the last several races that they have the fastest cars. Even if they make poor strategy calls or otherwise don't win the race, they appear to have the best over one lap.
The other primary area where there is some value is the race winner without Aston Martin and the other top four teams included. Both Albon and Hulkenberg are decent options, but Gasly (+2000) is an interesting longshot to consider.
