This article is part of our DFS College Football series.
It's time to go into single-game mode as we tackle the second CFP Semifinal. The matchup between Texas and Ohio State will take place at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, with a kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET. The winner will advance to the CFP Championship to face Notre Dame in Atlanta.
Current Odds: Ohio State -5.5, O/U: 53.5
Single-Game Formats
Before we make any endorsements, it's important to identify the differences between DraftKings and FanDuel regarding single-game contests. There are some similarities -both sites utilize one 1.5x multiplier spot (Captain for DK, MVP for FD) and 1x spots for every position, but almost everything else differs. DraftKings has five utility slots and a $50,000 salary allotment, while FanDuel only has four utility slots and a bank of $60,000. DraftKings also forces you to pay a penalty when selecting your MVP, as their default salaries are multiplied 1.5x as well. FanDuel keeps the salaries static regardless of where you place players. The final difference is kicker availability. DraftKings allows kickers, but FanDuel does not include them. FanDuel's lineup construction is very straightforward and flexible, while DraftKings' process is more complex and requires some extra homework.
The bias factor is the other primary difference between regular DFS and single-game contests. When you have several games to choose from, looking at the hard data is the best prognostication tool, and it's a given that you shouldn't make decisions based on a team or conference that you like. In single-game contests, your personal preference about the game's outcome will play a big role in how you build. I have built my preferences based on an Ohio State win that covers the spread. You may view things differently.
Texas vs. Ohio State DFS Showdown Picks
Captain and MVP Candidates (1.5x Multiplier)
Will Howard, Ohio State, DK ($18,300 (CPTN), $12,200 (UTIL), FD $15,500)
I am only making one endorsement in this spot. While the PPR implications of Ohio State's wide receivers make someone like Jeremiah Smith a tantalizing prospect, my viewpoint on Smith keeps him off the list. I anticipate Ryan Day will use Smith as a decoy out in space because Texas will key on him and allow the other wideouts to have single coverage. The Longhorns haven't faced many opponents with this much firepower, and I think Howard is a better call than Quinn Ewers. Getting both quarterbacks into lineups is a tall task on both sites, and I expect Ohio State's top-ranked defense will hassle Ewers all night. The Buckeyes also have the highest sack percentage in the country.
UTIL/FLEX Candidates
I will list my favorite utility options in order of preference.
WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State (DK $3,800, FD $8,000)
K Bert Auburn, Texas (DK $4,400) (No FanDuel eligibility)
RB TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State (DK $8,000), FD $12,000)
WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State (DK $7,600, FD $11,500)
RB Quinshon Judkins, Ohio State (DK $6,800, FD $10,000)
WR Matthew Golden, Texas (DK $8,800, FD $11,000)
TE Gunnar Helm, Texas (DK $5,400, FD $9,500)
WR DeAndre Moore, Texas (DK $3,600, FD $8,500)
Due to salary restrictions, I usually try to target my favorite budget options and then judge my elites based on the average salary I have remaining. Assuming Howard as the multiplier on both sites, we are left with an average of $6,340 per slot on DraftKings and an average of $11,125 per slot on FanDuel. It's an absolute necessity to get that average up on DraftKings, which is why Tate and Auburn show up at the top. Tate plays in the shadow of Smith and Egbuka, but he's a very capable wideout who had 48 catches for 611 yards and four touchdowns this season. Between the Buckeyes and Longhorns, I predict that Texas will be the team to sputter more often, which is why I'll go with Auburn over Jayden Fielding, who has also come up short more often for the Buckeyes.
If we offset with Tate and Auburn on DraftKings, our flexibility widens significantly to $7,833 per slot. Clicking Tate on DraftKings offers a similar boost to $12,167 per slot. Unfortunately, we still need to be somewhat conservative on DraftKings due to the cost of preferred targets above the median number. Although I prefer Henderson over Judkins, the latter is a better judgment call for DraftKings, as it allows for a great combo of Egbuka and Golden to round out your lineup. Life is remarkably easier on FanDuel, as I can rip off three straight clicks of Henderson, Egbuka and Golden and be done with it. FanDuel's flexibility does offer some contrarian options to consider, however.
Contrarion Options for FanDuel
Dual QB Option
We have room to slot Quinn Ewers in at $14,500, leaving us $11,000 for the remaining selections. We can then finish out with a decent grouping of Egbuka and Golden, achieving a stack for both quarterbacks.
The Smith Factor
If you disagree with my preference to fade Smith, it's pretty easy to make room for him on FanDuel. Just substitute Ewers for Smith and finish out with Henderson and Helm.
Conclusion
I'm going to fade Texas running backs based on metrics against Arizona State, but wideouts for Texas are fine with me. I think Jim Knowles' defensive scheme will force Texas to beat them through the air, which should increase Ewers' target spread. My only problem with the Howard/ewers stack is the downgrade to Judkins from Henderson. While both backs should reap sufficient production, I think Henderson is a more dynamic runner. If we utilized Henderson in the QB stack, we could settle for Gunnar Helm while mix-and-matching Tate with DeAndre Moore. Egbuka would be the most significant loss in that build.
As I said, tackling this contest is dependent on your views on the expected outcome. I've provided enough options for both teams to allow for a lean in either direction. I don't want to lose Ohio State's receivers, so my likely favorite builds will be Howard/Tate/Auburn/Judkins/Egbuka/Golden on DraftKings. I'll risk with dual QBs and go Howard/Tate/Ewers/Helm/Henderson on FanDuel.