This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
CFP First Round Picks: SMU vs. Penn State
The college football season is onto conference championship weekend, and you can still get in on the action with the BetMGM bonus code for a Bonus Bet offer of up to $1,500! RotoWire has plenty of college football betting tools and info to keep you in the loop this season. From the latest college football odds to college football futures and Heisman odds, RotoWire has you covered.
Penn State vs. SMU First Round Betting Odds
Spread: SMU +9 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook); Penn State -8.5 (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 52.5 (-115, ESPN Bet); Under 53.5 (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook)
Moneyline: SMU +280 (ESPN Bet); Penn State -320 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Get in on the college football bowl season with an ESPN BET promo code ROTO featuring a $100 offer on a $10 bet!
Penn State vs. SMU First Round Betting Picks
The SMU Mustangs (11-2) meet the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) in the First Round of the College Football Playoffs at Beaver Stadium in State College, Pa. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET, and the game can be viewed or streamed on TNT and Max.
The big news is the weather, as the forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-20s at kickoff, with wins blowing at a constant 13-16 MPH, with gusts up to 20 MPH. That could make for an adventure in the passing and kicking games at times. As such, we could potentially see more of a ground-oriented attack for both sides.
SMU arrives in the CFP as the 11-seed despite a heartbreaking 34-31 loss in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. That loss halted a nine-game win streak. SMU last lost to BYU on Sept. 6, falling 18-15 as a 12.5-point favorite. A lot of talking heads through the loss might put the Mustangs in peril, with three-loss Alabama waiting to snatch up the at-large bid.
With the loss to Clemson, SMU slipped to 3-3 against the spread (ATS) in the past six games, while the Over cashed for the fourth time in the past six games and the seventh time in the previous 10 outings.
SMU ranked 21st in the nation with 443.1 total yards per game while passing for 267.0 yards per contest. Both of those categories were ranked inside the Top 30 in the nation. It also piled up 38.5 PPG, checking in sixth nationally. The Mustangs didn't start out that way, but the offense revved up as the season went along.
Perhaps overlooked is SMU's defense, which allowed just 326.1 total yards per game and 93.4 rushing yards per contest. The latter was good for fifth in the country while allowing a respectable 20.8 PPG.
QB Kevin Jennings completed 66.0 percent of his passes for 3,050 yards, 22 TDs and 8 INTs, while also running for 379 yards and five scores. RB Brashard Smith was tremendous in the run game, too, rolling up 1,270 yards and 14 TDs, while amassing 5.9 yards per attempt.
For Penn State, it is coming off a 45-37 loss to top-ranked Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis on Dec. 7. The Over (51) easily cashed in that one, and it has come through in the previous four outings. The loss ended a four-game win streak dating back to a setback at home against Ohio State. In fact, Penn State is 0-2 SU/ATS in the past two games against ranked teams.
The Nittany Lions can pile up the offense, too, going for 448.6 total yards per game, with the run game leading the way. Penn State ranked 18th nationally with 202.2 yards per game on the ground, led by RB Nicholas Singleton with 838 yards and seven scores. In the passing game, QB Drew Allar managed to complete 69.1 percent of his throws for 2,894 yards, 21 TDs, and 7 INTs, and he had a respectable 279 yards and six scores on the ground. WR Tyler Warren led the way with 88 grabs, 1,062 yards and 6 TDs.
This will be just the third-ever meeting between these institutions on the gridiron. The last time they met was Sept. 23, 1978, a 26-21 meeting in State College. The first meeting was a 13-13 tie in the Cotton Bowl on New Year's Day in 1948, so it's time to make some new, updated history.
With the home-field advantage and the ice-cold weather, Penn State should get the job done outright. However, this isn't likely to be more than a one-score game, either. SMU has been fierce all season, and even in losses, it has been able to keep it within a single score.
Penn State vs. SMU Expert Pick: Mustangs +9 (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Get a piece of the action during the 2024 college football bowl season with a DraftKings Promo Code for $150 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins!
Penn State vs. SMU Predictions for First Round Playoff Game
Looking to the total, this is a tricky situation. We normally don't get college games in such frigid conditions, so this is a little bit of unchartered territory.
Both teams are more than capable on the ground, and you can expect both offenses to be slightly skewed toward a ground-based attack with the gusty winds and cold conditions. Passing will still happen with Allar and Jennings, but it just might not occur quite as frequently as normal.
In addition, don't be surprised to see both Rhett Lashlee and James Franklin elect to pass up on potential long-distance field goals, instead going for it on fourth down. That's because the winds will be rather gusty and swirling in Happy Valley. All of that should end up leading to a slightly lower-scoring game, although it won't be confused with a defensive slog. It's very possible we get a game in the mid- to upper-40's, however. Going low in the best course of action.
