This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Gator Bowl Picks: Duke vs. Ole Miss
Get in on the college football action for 2024 with a BetMGM bonus code featuring a Bonus Bet offer of up to $1,500! RotoWire has plenty of college football betting tools and info to keep you in the loop this season. From the latest college football odds to college football futures and Heisman odds, we have you covered.
The Duke Blue Devils (9-3) and the Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) will meet in Jacksonville for the Gator Bowl. This matchup will be a classic example of the current college landscape's negative effect on postseason bowls that are outside the CFP bracket. Key transfers and opt-outs can put teams at massive disadvantages, and wagering based on historical data becomes completely unreliable. In this game, the Blue Devils are up against it with some key absences, and the scenario will direct the narrative as we hunt for a confident bet.
Duke vs. Ole Miss Betting Odds for Gator Bowl
Spread: Mississippi -17.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Duke +17.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 50.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Under 50.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Ole Miss -750 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Duke +580 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The total was markedly better earlier in the week, but the two-point dip in recent days is a little tough to swallow. There's no ML advantage here unless you believe in a Duke upset, but Vegas set a clever line that will strike fear in those who choose to play the odds.
Join in on the fun during the 2024 college football bowl season with a FanDuel Sportsbook promo code featuring $250 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins!
Duke vs. Ole Miss Betting Picks for Gator Bowl
As we mentioned, Duke's depleted roster is the situation to track when considering the Gator Bowl as a viable wagering spot. Starting quarterback Maalik Murphy is in the portal and headed to Oregon State, and standout running back Star Thomas is also transferring. Henry Belin is slated to take first-string duties under center, and although he's mostly an unknown quality, the lack of real-time experience and a weaker arm than Murphy results in a downgrade for Duke's offense. The extent of the downgrade is unclear, but any quarterback facing Ole Miss' defense will encounter many problems. The Rebels racked up a nation-leading 52 sacks this season, which spells doom for an inexperienced quarterback. Conversely, Ole Mss' roster will be mostly intact, and star quarterback Jaxson Dart is good to go for the game. He'll be without Tre Harris and Antwane Wells, but Cayden Lee and Jordan Watkins have plenty of first-string experience, so the drop-off won't be significant. They have some key defensive absences, but Duke's potency on offense won't be much of a challenge. As we look at the Over/Under and spread, Vegas is predicting a 34-17 total. I'm not confident that Duke can produce that much, and I'm going to call the total bet too risky based on how I think the Rebels will perform. I will dive deeper into the reasoning for my pick later in the article, but I will go with Ole Miss and give Duke a long leash.
Duke vs. Ole Miss Expert Pick: Ole Miss -17.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Get a piece of the action during the 2024 college football bowl season with a DraftKings Promo Code for $150 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins!
Duke vs. Ole Miss Predictions for Gator Bowl
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin has been quite vocal about the machinations of the playoff. He's trolled the committee, using the lopsided results in the first round as fodder to criticize how the teams are selected. Put simply, he thinks his squad deserves a spot, and he's letting emotion get the best of him. Ultimately, the other wrinkle in this contest is how this emotion is translated. Ole Miss is obviously the better team on paper, but will the Rebels try to make a big statement and run up the score? Or, will they take a ho-hum attitude that occasionally plagued them this season and allow Duke to get back in the game with careless mistakes? If we use last year's bowl as an example, the Rebels played extremely hard and handily beat 10th-ranked Penn State at the Peach Bowl. Kiffin also felt his squad should have been ranked higher last year, and he took it out on the Nittany Lions. Duke sets up as a weaker opponent by a wide margin, so I think Kiffin will come into this game with a blowout on his mind. Absent the intangibles, Ole Miss outclasses Duke at several positions, and Duke's transfer/opt-out woes only magnify the differential present in this game; I think Kiffin will keep his starters in regardless of the early outcome, using Dart's arm and Henry Parrish's feet to take over the game and post a big number.
