This article is part of our RotoWire Bracketology series.
With less than a month before Selection Sunday, it's time to get real about the bubble, at least more real than a month ago. The bubble still extends to the 7-seed range with teams like Buffalo (NET 17) and Mississippi (NET 34) far from guarantees to make the NCAA tournament. If they both win the games they're supposed to, there's nothing to worry about. But if the Bulls lose one or two more in the MAC, or the Rebels drop road games at Arkansas and Missouri between home games against Tennessee and Kentucky, it'll get interesting.
For now, those teams are in, yet neither should feel too safe. It's a little different for teams on the very edge as one loss to a bad team could easily end their hopes of making the tournament. That's the case for roughly 16 teams, and once conference tournaments begin, those spots could dry up if teams like Buffalo or Wofford don't win their respective tourneys. With Buffalo and Wofford (NET 24) firmly in the NCAA tournament as of Feb. 22, a different conference tournament winner would likely mean two teams from those conferences would be in March Madness. That's what teams on the bubble don't want, but that's why you keep winning.
Florida (NET 31) is in one of the more precarious positions because it closes the season with LSU and Kentucky. It has to win the three games prior to those (Missouri, Vandy, Georgia) and if it doesn't, an 18-13 regular-season record likely won't be good enough. Obviously, sweeping LSU is on the table, but it can't look past the trip to Vandy.
The same could be said for Alabama (NET 51), Butler (NET 50), Clemson (NET 44) and Nebraska (NET 46). The Cornhuskers are probably in the worst position with an even harder end to the season than Florida with Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa on the schedule. Already down one of their best players, it's hard to see them making the tournament. Butler has a more manageable schedule, but it could lose any of its games, hence why it's on the bubble. UCF (NET 39) also finds itself in this discussion with its most difficult conference games in the final couple weeks after already losing at Cincinnati on Thursday.
It's a little different for teams in smaller conferences like Temple (NET 54) and Utah State (NET 36) since their schedules are much more manageable. The problem for the Aggies is that they likely can only get in if they beat Nevada at least once. That either means at home or in the MWC tournament. If they can't, wins over St. Mary's and Fresno State won't be enough to get an at-large bid. I haven't been a huge fan of the Owls, but a win over Houston is keeping them alive. They have a chance to run the slate with trips to Memphis and UConn being their only two road games remaining. A home win over UCF in the regular-season finale would also put Temple in good standing.
Of course, if that happens, the usual issues come into play regarding mid-majors getting in above teams from Power Five conferences. Should Temple, which already has losses against Penn and Tulsa, get in above teams like Florida or Clemson that don't have any truly bad losses? Sure, at some point you have to win, but with a team like Temple, ranked 72nd at KenPom (as of Feb. 22), beating up on a bunch of mediocre teams in non-conference shouldn't get you a spot in the NCAA tournament.
But that's why the committee exists. At some point, you have to put certain numbers above other ones and go from there. This year, NET will be the main talking point (as mentioned last week). If that's the case, Temple should be on the outside looking in. However, the Bracket Matrix says otherwise with the Owls in the majority of brackets.
GAMES BETWEEN GOOD, NON-BUBBLE TEAMS
For those that don't care about the bubble because they only prefer high-end college basketball, it should be an exciting weekend and following week with numerous key games on the docket.
SATURDAY
Tennessee at LSU: I'm not saying it's a must, but if Tennessee wants to keep its 1-seed, it would do itself well to win at LSU. The Tigers are coming off a loss, which doesn't help, while the Volunteers haven't looked right in their last two games.
Kansas at Texas Tech: If the Red Raiders want a chance at the Big 12 regular-season title, they have to win this game. Kansas has won three straight, but has struggled on the road all season and is still without Lagerald Vick.
Auburn at Kentucky: It'd be surprising if the Wildcats lost, but without Reid Travis, it'll be interesting to see how the team looks. A home loss could also smash its chances of a 1-seed, even with the injury included.
Duke at Syracuse: In the same mold as Kentucky, what will Duke look like without Zion Williamson? The Blue Devils already lost to Syracuse down two players and beating this zone will be problematic without Williamson.
SUNDAY
Michigan State at Michigan: This game may not get as much hype as it once did without Nick Ward, but this is still an important spot for both teams. Will the Spartans get blown out without two of their best players or will they stay competitive against a team they've lost to three-straight times. There are also 1-seed and 2-seed implications with two more matchups possible between these teams.
MONDAY
Kansas State at Kansas: All eyes will be on the rematch. If the Jayhawks lose on Saturday, they can't afford to falter at home against one of the teams they're competing with at the top of the Big 12 standings.
TUESDAY
Duke at Virginia Tech: If Zion misses another game, this is the perfect spot for the Hokies to get a win they've been looking for all season. If not, they'll struggle to get anything better than a 4-seed.
WEDNESDAY
Marquette at Villanova: Another rematch. If the Golden Eagles want to stay on the 3-line and have a shot at a 2-seed, a win here would help. As for Villanova, it has to start winning again or could find itself in a difficult situation come Selection Sunday.
*NET prior to Friday, Feb. 22 games
Heading into the weekend, here's what my projected bracket looks like:
