Sweet 16 Preview: Midwest Region

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MIDWEST REGION SWEET 16

Site: Chicago, IL
Tip-off: Friday

In a tournament characterized by shocking upsets thus far, the Midwest Region likely saw the most surprising upset to date when Michigan State fell to 15-seed Middle Tennessee State in the tournament's round of 64. Coach Tom Izzo and National Player of the Year candidate Denzel Valentine fell victim to a Blue Raiders team that shot 55.9 percent from the floor and 57.9 percent from three-point range. This uncharacteristic early exit shook up the entire bottom half of the region, allowing No. 11-seeded Gonzaga and No. 10-seeded Syracuse to sneak through to the Sweet 16 with a few surprising upsets of their own.

On the top half, it was all chalk. Virginia escaped a valiant effort from the Butler Bulldogs, led by a 22-point performance from ACC Player of the Year Malcolm Brogdon. The Iowa State Cyclones proved many doubters (including myself) wrong by advancing via victories over Iona and Arkansas-Little Rock, becoming the second Big 12 team left in the round of 16. A distinct clash in styles will be the story in this matchup, as coach Tony Bennett will look to control the tempo of the lightning-fast Cyclones in an effort to make it to the Elite Eight for the first time since 1995. Virginia has been knocked out by Michigan State in back-to-back seasons already, but will catch a big-time break with the Spartans no longer in the mix.

No. 4 Iowa State vs. No. 1 Virginia

Key Matchup: Virginia's Malcolm Brogdon vs. Iowa State's Matt Thomas. Assuming Cyclones point guard Monte Morris is tasked with defending London Perrantes, coach Steve Prohm will likely assign Thomas to handle the dynamic scoring capabilities of Brogdon. Thomas, a junior from Onalaska, WI, was tasked with guarding Buddy Hield in the Big 12 tournament, and held the superstar to just 13 points on 5-of-10 shooting in the narrow defeat. The two match up well size-wise, and if Thomas can contain Brogdon, the Cavaliers will be hard-pressed to find another offensive facilitator that can replicate his skillset.

Iowa State will win IF: it can push the pace and score in transition. Brogdon and the Cavaliers play at the slowest pace in the entire country, according to KenPom, while the Cyclones are the second-fastest team remaining in the tournament. Virginia will attempt to utilize the entirety of the shot clock, while Iowa State has the 20th fastest average posession length in the country. Monte Morris and the Cyclones will have to disrupt the Cavalier's rhthym and get them to play outside their comfort zone, and if they utilize the transition game to get an early lead, Virginia will have a tough time keeping up with them in a track meet.

Virginia will win IF: it maintains course. Yeah, it sounds incredibly simple, but why change much when you have the sixth-best offensive efficiency and fourth-best defensive efficiency in the country (per KenPom)? Virginia has faced their fair share of faster-paced teams during ACC play, most recently in the conference championship game against North Carolina. Although that game did not go their way, they still held the up-tempo Tar Heels to just 61 points. If they manage to hold Iowa State to a similar point total, they should have no problem coming out on top.

Player to Watch: Iowa State's Georges Niang. There's no doubt that Brogdon is incredibly talented, but Niang has that rare inside-outside game that allows him to potentially take over. The senior has shot 39 percent from three-point range this season and standing at 6-foot-8, can be a matchup nightmare. In his last three games, Niang has tallied 31, 28 and 28 points. A similar total may be a lofty expectation based on the projected tempo of this game, but if Niang can significantly outscore Brogdon, it might be just enough to pull the upset.

Prediction: Although Iowa State is talented, they don't have nearly the same level of depth as Tony Bennett's squad. That, mixed with spotty defense (No. 92-ranked defensive efficiency), simply provides Virginia with too many ways to take control of this matchup.

No. 11 Gonzaga vs. No. 10 Syracuse

Key Matchup: Gonzaga's Domantis Sabonis vs. Syracuse's interior defense. Standing at 6-11, Sabonis will have at least a 2-3 inch size advantage over any post option coach Jim Boeheim throws at him. Whether it's 6-8 junior Tyler Roberson, 6-9 senior DaJuan Coleman or 6-8 freshman Tyler Lydon, Sabonis should be able to control the glass. He's collected double-digit rebounds in 11 of his last 13 games. That being said, if Sabonis finds himself in early foul trouble, the advantage could tip in the direction of Syracuse (he's fouled out twice in his last six games).

Gonzaga will win IF: its young backcourt holds up. The Bulldogs have a distinct advantage in the paint, but turn to freshman Josh Perkins for most of the ball-handling responsibilities. Furthermore, they rely on sophomore guard Silas Melson for 21.5 minutes per game. Upperclassmen Eric McClellan and Kyle Dranginis provide some stability, but the performance of Perkins on the biggest stage could ultimately dictate the outcome. He's reached double figures in three of the last four, and a couple timely three-points could end up pushing Gonzaga over the edge.

Syracuse will win IF: it finds a way to create open three-point looks. Few defend the perimeter better than Gonzaga, as the Bulldogs hold opponents to just 30.3 percent from beyond the arc, good for No. 8 in the country. They have lengthly guards that close out quick, and even 6-10 Kyle Wiltjer can defend the three-point line with the best of them. Syracuse shoots just 36.2 percent from three-point land, led by Michael Gbinije (41.1 percent), Tyler Lydon (40.4 percent), Malachi Richardson (35.0 percent) and Trevor Cooney (34.9 percent). WIth the menacing challenge ahead down low, one of their only paths to victory might be to shoot their way there.

Player to Watch: Gonzaga's Kyle Wiltjer. The Kentucky transfer knocks down 43.2 percent of his three-point baskets, and is a threat to score 30 every time he takes the court. His scoring average is up nearly four points to 20.4 PPG this season, and he's also attempted a career-best 4.2 free throws per contest. Even if everything else isn't going the Zags' way, Wiltjer has the skills to shoulder the offensive responsibility and carry his team to victory.

Prediction: Although Syracuse won their first two tournament games by a combined 44 points, Gonzaga beat significantly higher-quality opponents to get to the Sweet 16 in Seton Hall & Utah. They're getting hot at just the right time, and are facing a team that many argue should not have made the tournament. Both Vegas and I agree that Gonzaga (-4.5) will come out on top in this one.