Sweet 16 Preview: East Region

Site: New York
Tip-off: Friday

Never in my wildest dreams would I have considered these four teams making it to the tournament's second weekend, and my guess is that I'm not alone.

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 7 South Carolina

Key Matchup: Johnathan Motley vs. Chris Silva. Motley is the Bears' star, averaging 17.3 points and 9.9 rebounds while posting double-doubles in both of Baylor's games last weekend. While not an avid shot blocker (1.1 per game), his 6-foot-10, 230-pound body brings a massive 87.5-inch wingspan and creates matchup problems on both ends for opponents. Silva, meanwhile, represents the Gamecocks' best chance for a post threat. He averaged 10.0 points and 5.8 boards this season but is coming off a career-high 17 points against Duke with 10 rebounds. He's been in foul trouble, however, with at least four fouls in four of his last five games. If Motley can get Silva off the floor early, South Carolina isn't going to have much of a chance inside at stopping the Bears.

Baylor will win IF: it contains South Carolina's other players. SEC Player of the year Sindarius Thornwell (21.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.2 spg) will get his. His season low is 10, but he's scored at least 18 points in 20 games and will do so either from the perimeter or from attacking the basket and getting to the foul line. But the only way South Carolina can win is if he has help, which has been something that has been sporadic at best. Yes, three other Gamecocks average in double figures, but two, guards Duane Notice and P.J. Dozier, shoot no more than 40 percent. This matchup pits two of the best defensive teams in the country; points will be at a premium. Any help Thornwell receives will go a long way toward an upset.

South Carolina will win IF: it scores consistently. This seems incredibly obvious, but the Gamecocks have had incredibly long scoring droughts throughout the season. USC averages 73.1 points, but has scored 93 and 88 in two NCAA games. They entered the tournament losers of six of their last nine games, however, failing to score more than 66 points four times. In the first half of their upset against Duke, the Gamecocks shot just 7 of 35 from the floor, and the Blue Devils aren't much better than decent defensively, ranking 48th in efficiency via KenPom. Baylor ranks 13th, and likes to play at a slower tempo, ranking 328th of 351 teams on the same site. South Carolina's defense got it here and could keep it close during a shooting slump, but falling behind by seven points to the Bears will be a bigger hill to climb with fewer opportunities.

Player to Watch: Duane Notice, South Carolina. Notice's senior season has been all over the map. He's averaging a three-year low 10.3 points and has five times been held to two or fewer points. One of those outings was a goose egg in the SEC tournament against Alabama, but Notice played better in Greenville last week, totaling 27 points while hitting 10 of 20 from the floor, a welcomed rate for a player who hit only 39 percent of his shots during the season. He leads the Gamecocks with 191 3-point attempts (64 makes), and South Carolina needs him to see a big basket to force Baylor to guard the perimeter. If he's connecting from outside, Thornwell should find slightly easier driving lanes. And as a bonus, keep an eye on Baylor's Terry Maston. He hadn't scored in Baylor's last three games, but put up 19 in both games last weekend.

Prediction: I'm still wiping egg off of my face from last week's stinker, which included labelling Baylor as my likely bust in the East. And while I'm not overly impressed by wins over two double-digit seeds, I've doubted the Bears too much to do so again, even against my alma mater. Their length and athleticism presents plenty of problems for even the best offense and should prove too much for the Gamecocks to overcome. Baylor takes this with relative ease.

No. 4 Florida vs. No. 8 Wisconsin

Key Matchup: Nigel Hayes vs. Devin Robinson. Hayes remains, at minimum, the emotional leader of the Badgers, and he's playing his best basketball of the season during March. He's three rebounds shy of five consecutive double-doubles, and Florida doesn't possess enough bulk down low to control him and Ethan Happ. Robinson appears to also be peaking at the right time, averaging 16.3 points and 9.3 rebounds in three postseason games (including SEC tournament). While these two might not be matched up against each other, Florida needs Robinson to continue playing at this level to keep pace in the paint.

Florida will win IF: it can negate Wisconsin's size advantage. Hayes (6-8, 240) Ethan Happ (6-10, 232) and Vito Brown (6-8, 235) give the Badgers a huge front line that the Gators will counter with Robinson (6-8, 200), Justin Leon (6-8, 206) and Kevarrius Hayes (6-9, 218). That's a pretty big disparity in girth for the Badgers, who rank 18th in offensive rebound percentage at 35.8. In a game where points will be at a premium, Florida has to keep Wisconsin from getting easy second-chance baskets.

Wisconsin will win IF: it pounds the glass. In short, see above. Wisconsin does not defend the 3-point arc well, allowing Virginia Tech to hit 7 of 17 from downtown in the opening round. The Badgers overcame that by collecting 17 offensive rebounds en route to outrebounding the Hokies by 12. They pulled down 12 more offensive boards against Villanova, while defending the 3 much better (31.3 percent). Florida isn't a terrific long-range shooting team, so perimeter defense is a bit less of a concern. Wisconsin must take advantage of its size advantage to produce easy baskets, and possibly get the Gators into foul trouble.

Player to Watch: Canyon Barry, Florida. Barry is the team's second-leading scorer (11.8 ppg) but is seventh in minutes (21.5), showing how lethal of a scorer he can be. But he's been completely out of sorts in the postseason, failing to score in an SEC tournament loss to Vanderbilt while totaling 14 points in the Gators' two games last weekend. Barry's been incredibly inconsistent, scoring 30 points on Auburn on Feb. 14 only to post 10 total points in his next three games. Second on the team in 3-point attempts, Barry needs to bring his good version to help Florida exploit a Badgers defense that allows 37.7 percent of opposing 3-pointers to fall, 305th nationally.

Prediction: First to 60 wins? Wisconsin ranks eighth in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and ninth in points allowed (61.5 ppg), while Florida ranks third and 37th (65.3 ppg), respectively. I have serious doubts about Florida's ability to overcome Wisconsin's size, but this has the perfect setup for a tight game throughout, likely coming down to the final few possessions. As such, I trust Bronson Koenig and his big-shot experience over anything Florida can offer. Wisconsin wins by three or less.