This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
After going 9-6 with my picks last week, I'm back for another serving of March Madness. I'm not betting we'll see much Madness on Thursday, but either way, we have plenty of exciting hoops action on tap. Here are my predictions for three games on Thursday's Sweet 16 slate.
Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest in the projected field of 68 for 2025 NCAA Tournament, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.
BYU 
vs. Alabama
At first glance, these teams seem somewhat similar. Both have offensive attacks that rank in the top-10 of the nation in adjusted efficiency, and their defenses rank outside the top-25. However, the similarities end there.
BYU has the ninth-highest adjusted offensive rating in the nation, but it's not without flaws. It ranks 208th in turnover percentage and 253rd in free-throw attempt rate, giving it two areas of concern. That said, you're hard-pressed to find a better shooting team than BYU. The Cougars have made 58 percent of two-point attempts (sixth) and 37 percent of three-point attempts (28th), yielding the sixth-highest effective field goal percentage in the nation. These are impressive numbers, although a closer look reveals that one might argue they are overly reliant on long-range shooting. BYU has scored 39 percent of its total points from three-pointers, the 18th-highest mark among all D-1 teams. For context, the Cougars rank 319th in points off two-pointers (45 percent) and 321st in points off free throws (16 percent). Most of the time, they're great at making them, but the problem with this kind of game plan is that your fate hinges on an ability that has greater variability compared to other scoring methods.
If you believe that perimeter defense travels, then this strategy plays right into Alabama's hands because it has had great success in that area for most of the season. The Crimson Tide held opponents to under 31 percent from beyond the arc, the 22nd-best mark in the nation. Alabama boasts the fastest adjusted tempo among all D-1 teams, so its defense naturally looks worse than most when looking at raw point totals, but it has still played at a respectable level. The Tide ranked 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency and held opponents to the 35th-best effective field goal percentage allowed, making this a stout unit overall. It doesn't typically cause many turnovers but still forces tough shots.
At the other end of the court, Alabama has transformed into an offensive powerhouse under head coach Nate Oats. The Tide made the Final Four a year ago on the strength of its offense, ranking second in efficiency (compared to 111th on defense), so anything appears possible with the current group, one that has a similarly high offensive ranking (fourth) but is substantially better on defense (29th). The problem for opposing teams trying to guard Alabama is that it does everything at an elite level. Early in the season, it struggled from long-range, but it found its stroke in recent months and torched the nets by making 38 percent of three-point attempts against SEC opponents, the second-highest mark in the league. This is an alarming trend for opposing defenses because the Crimson Tide was already exceptional inside the paint, having made 60 percent of shots inside the arc, the third-highest mark among all D-1 teams. Alabama also ranks near the top of the nation in offensive rebounding (52nd) and free-throw attempts (26th), further underscoring its physical interior presence.
Defensively, the Cougars are the worst remaining team in the tournament. They rank 71st in adjusted defensive efficiency and don't excel in any particular area. They have the 32nd-highest defensive rebounding percentage, which may come in handy in this match, but they don't otherwise rank in the top 75 of the nation in any other key categories, such as turnovers or field goal percentages allowed.
It's always tempting to take the underdog come tournament time, but in this case, I'm not buying it. Alabama commits fewer turnovers, secures more offensive rebounds, takes more trips to the foul line, and scores more from inside the arc. Also, it has the better defense. It's possible that BYU may catch fire and shoot its way into the Elite Eight, but I'd rather go with a more fundamentally sound team that plays better defense. I'm laying the points with Bama.
College Basketball Best Bet: Alabama -5.5
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Maryland 
vs. Florida 
The Gators have established themselves as an elite offensive team, sporting the second-highest adjusted efficiency rating in the nation. Stopping them is never easy, but the Terrapins appear capable of making this game interesting, as they have the sixth-best defensive efficiency rating among all D-1 teams.
Maryland's defense is outstanding in many critical areas. It ranks in the top 70 of the nation in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover percentage, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate, beating or matching Florida's offense in all four categories except for rebounding, where Florida's offense has the fifth-highest mark.
Numbers are one thing, but most college sports fans know that talent ultimately wins out. In this case, Maryland arguably has the most talented player on the court, with five-star freshman center Derik Queen holding down the paint, a potential NBA lottery pick. The Terps also have senior forward Julian Reese to patrol the paint with Queen. Reese is a beast on the boards, ranking in the top seven of both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages among all qualified Big Ten players. In Maryland's first two tournament games, Reese earned KenPom's 'MVP' honors in both games, further reinforcing the strength of Maryland's tremendous frontcourt tandem.
Both teams are nearly as elite when playing in the other direction. Maryland ranks 22nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, several ticks below Florida's defense, which stands at 11th in adjusted efficiency. Florida ranks close to the D-1 average in turnover and rebounding percentages, but it's near the top of the charts in forcing bad shots. The Gators held opponents to 46 percent on shots inside the arc (17th) and 29 percent on shots beyond the arc (fifth), yielding the fifth-best effective field goal percentage allowed among all D-1 teams. In contrast, Maryland's offense ranks close to the D-1 average in offensive rebounding and free-throw attempts but has the 19th-best turnover percentage. It also made 52 percent of two-pointers (125th) and almost 38 percent of three-pointers (23rd), yielding the 59th-highest effective field goal percentage. These are, again, exceptional offense numbers in the big picture, but Florida's defense still has it beat in most areas outside of turnovers.
Given the elite defensive aspects of both teams, I like our odds of seeing a lower-scoring game. The total to beat is a bit higher because both teams prefer playing fast, with Florida ranking 61st in adjusted tempo and Maryland ranking 64th. Still, the speed doesn't mean as much if the opposing team makes scoring extremely difficult. Also, both teams usually do an outstanding job of protecting the ball, giving us less of a chance of seeing a large amount of fast break points off of turnovers. Considering Maryland's roster and game plan, I lean towards taking the points with the Terps, but ultimately, I prefer our odds of seeing a low-scoring game. I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 157.5
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Arizona 
vs. Duke 
We've nearly come full circle. Back on November 22nd, I picked the Blue Devils in this matchup, as they traveled to Tucson and got one-and-a-half points as an underdog. Now, fast forward multiple months, and that line sounds laughable. Well, sure enough, the Blue Devils won that game without any stress, jumping out to a seven-point halftime lead and never looking back before winning 69-55.
Now, looking ahead to Thursday's game, we have the same key players involved. Arizona may have adjusted the roles throughout the season, but ultimately, the core facts about each team remain the same.
As I wrote back in November, when stacking these teams next to each other, not much stands out other than the fact that the Blue Devils are clearly better in most areas on both ends of the court.
Offensively, Duke has the distinction of having the highest adjusted efficiency rating in the nation. As one might imagine, the underlying stats reflect precisely that. The Blue Devils have made almost 59 percent of two-point attempts (fifth) and 38 percent of three-point attempts (17th), outputting the nation's third-highest effective field goal percentage. In case they happen to miss a shot, they have the 48th-highest offensive rebounding percentage. Duke also ranks 16th in offensive turnovers, so it's not likely to itself in the foot. On the other hand, Arizona ranks 28th in adjusted defensive efficiency and ranks noticeably lower than Duke in every category just mentioned. Specifically, Arizona ranks 64th in effective field goal percentage allowed, 239th in turnovers, and 76th in defensive rebounding.
We see a similar story at the other end of the court. Duke has the nation's fourth-best adjusted defensive efficiency rating, with similar standings in other areas. The Blue Devils have held opponents to 43 percent on shots inside the arc (third) and under 31 percent on shots beyond the arc (23rd), yielding the lowest effective field goal percentage allowed among all D-1 teams. On top of that, they also rank 41st in defensive rebounding and 17th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. Given these top-notch rankings, it's hard to find any offense that can come close to matching Duke's defense, and Arizona is no exception. The Wildcats are an elite offensive team in their own right, ranking 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency, but they comparatively rank lower than Duke's defense in most areas. Arizona ranks 73rd in effective field goal percentage, 121st in turnovers, 16th in offensive rebounding, and 91st in free-throw attempt rate. Also, it's worth noting Arizona can't necessarily bank on getting hot from the perimeter, either. The Wildcats have made 33 percent of their three-point attempts, just a hair under the D-1 average. They also rank below the D-1 average in three-point attempt rate (293rd), so their accuracy may be even worse if they shot it as much as the average D-1 team. Arizona's best offensive skill is its ability to collect offensive rebounds, but this doesn't play the same against Duke. The Blue Devils have demonstrated this with the numbers, ranking in the top 50 of rebounding percentage at both ends, but it's also the tallest team in the nation, per KenPom's average height data.
Winning by double-digits at this stage of the tournament may seem like a big ask, but then again, this is a big team with arguably the best collective talent in the nation. I'm going with the Blue Devils.
College Basketball Best Bet: Duke -9.5
Think your team has what it takes to win it all in March Madness? Find College Basketball National Championship Odds and other college basketball futures bets across multiple sportsbooks on RotoWire.
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Alabama -5.5
- Maryland vs. Florida - Under 157.5
- Duke -9.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
