Hoops Lab: Super-Mega-Invincibles Changing the Rules

Russell Westbrook. Healthy Anthony Davis. Often James Harden. Lately DeMarcus Cousins and surprisingly Kevin Durant. Not even getting into LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo or Karl-Anthony Towns. They're elite, but still human, at least on a DFS level.

The top producers thus far this NBA season don't always seem to be human. And they are rewriting the rules when it comes to DFS, and perhaps season-long fantasy as well.

On Sunday in my DFS columns, I debated whether to advocate for Chris Paul or Westbrook as my high-priced guard. In the games leading up to Sunday, Paul was averaging about 50 fantasy points per game and his price was about $4K less than Westbrook's, so I justified making Paul the rec.

Paul was solid: 18 points, 11 assists, a couple of boards and a steal. But Westbrook was, well, Westbrook, notching his then-fifth triple-double in a row to the tune of 28 points, 17 boards, 12 assists and a steal. Even his 10 turnovers couldn't detract from the fact that Westbrook had gone video game yet again, and I ended up having someone comment in my article about how stupid I was not to have picked Westbrook.

It's getting to the point where DFS strategy wasn't developed for players like Westbrook or the others mentioned. It used to be very risky to buy players once they started getting up into the $11k or $12k range because you were spending somewhere between 20% to 25% of your budget on a single player. Since you usually need at least 300 points to be competitive in DraftKings or 350 in FanDuel, you would be banking on a player to score between 60 and 75 points at those prices, which used to be just about impossible to expect consistently. Thus, once players priced themselves into the mega-stratosphere, they weren't often selected.

But now?

In DraftKings, Russell Westbrook's last nine games produced fantasy point totals of: 69.75, 75.5, 75.25, 61.75, 79.75, 64.75, 67, 73.25 and 67.

Anthony Davis' last seven healthy games yielded fantasy totals of 70.75, 79, 63.25, 62.25, 68.5, 68.5 and 70.25 fantasy points.

DeMarcus Cousins' last week? 67.5, 53.75, 72.5 and 66.75.

James Harden is the inconsistent one of the group, going for 61.5, 40, 75.25, 46.75, 63, 49.75, 60, 56, 57.25 and 70 fantasy points over his last 10 games.

If you have players who can actually average 60+ points over extended periods, those super-high prices become not only justified, but almost a bargain. Let's take Westbrook, for example. Suppose he costs $13k and a value player costs $4,500. If your value player can give you 25 points, there's a very solid chance those two players will return you 100 fantasy points in DraftKings.

Now, suppose instead that you split that $17,500 into a $9k and an $8,500 player. How confident are you that they can replicate that 100 points -- or, in other words, give you around 50 points each? Remember, for the mortal, 50 points is an excellent game. We just spoke about how Chris Paul, one of the best in the league, turned in a double-double on Sunday and had it be a disappointment because it "only" translated to 39 fantasy points on DraftKings. I'd argue that, on most nights, because of Westbrook's consistency, it's safer to pick him and a scrub than to pick two borderline-elites.

Stars and scrubs used to be the swing-for-the-fences risky strategy to take in DFS. But with the way Westbrook and his fellow super-mega-invincibles are playing, scrubs and duds should maybe become the default strategy on many nights.

And it's not just DFS. In year-long leagues, there are questions as well.

Last week, a handful of us at Rotowire were asked if someone should trade Kawhi Leonard, Kemba walker, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Tristan Thompson for Westbrook, Victor Oladipo, Tyler Johnson and Markieff Morris. The default response from most was no, don't do that, it's too much to give up for primarily Westbrook

I was the lone dissenting voice among my Rotowire brethren because, again, I don't know if it's possible to overprice Westbrook. We're well into December and he's averaging 31 points, 11.3 assists, 10.9 rebounds, 1.9 treys, 1.3 steals, 0.4 blocks, shooting 42.7% from the field and 81% from the line. In an 8-cat league, he is giving you all of the contributions of a star point guard (assists, threes, steals, strong free throw shooting on high volume) in addition to the scoring of a franchise wing and the rebounding of a star big man. The field goal percentage isn't ideal, but it doesn't doom you, either. While Kawhi has no real roto weaknesses and Kemba is outstanding as well, I think I could make a solid case that Westbrook is more valuable than the two of them combined because pairing his volume with a role player might just produce more value than those two put together.

That's crazy talk. And yet, it's here. It's happening.

Westbrook, Harden, and Davis are playing a game this year that I'm not sure we've ever really seen before in fantasy basketball. In season-long, Kevin Durant is just about perfect. The rule changes are starting to reach some of the logical endpoints, and the boxscores are getting a workout. There's a risk to concentrating too many resources into a single player, because injury becomes that much more dangerous (see first point in Around the NBA or "Davis, Anthony"). But as I talk about a bit below, these cartoonish box score numbers are forcing us to re-think how we play fantasy, because (especially in DFS but also in year-long) conservative and steady no longer appears to be the way to build a winning team. In many cases, to win you've got to get your super-mega-invincible rock, then dig deeper to find enough supplementary talent to put around him.

Around the NBA

Davis with two absences last week, current right-foot sprain:Anthony Davis is an absolute MONSTER when he plays a full game. Going into Sunday he had averaged 38.3 points, 13 boards, 2.8 assists, 2.3 blocks, 2.0 steals, 1.3 treys, shot 57% from the field and 82.4% from the line in his last four games. Then, on Sunday he poured in 37 more points with 15 boards, four blocks, two assists and two steals. Simply gorgeous numbers.

Only, at the end of the night on Sunday Davis was forced to undergo an X-Ray on what turned out to be a mildly sprained right foot. He was immediately deemed probable to play on Monday, but this was the third injury this week for Davis and his fourth in the last three weeks. I don't mean to minimize injuries, because even those listed as minor usually hurt more than the public realizes. But with that said, Davis had been forced to sit out against the Magic on Nov. 16 with a right quad contusion, he sat out a good chunk of time on Nov. 22 with a bruised right knee, then missed another chunk of time on Dec. 2 with a right shoulder injury.

This makes Davis a quandary for me to own, either season-long or in DFS. His numbers are so enticing that any night you don't buy him in DFS you risk being the guy that misses out on an 80-fantasy-point night, and if you trade him year-long you get to bang your head against a wall every time he drops 40 and 15. But it's just as vexing to spend a huge chunk of your DFS budget on him, only to have him sit out yet again and feel like you should have known better. And if I don't trade him, and he gets hurt, I'll kick myself all offseason.

Bottom line: Davis is too brittle for comfort, but too brilliant to leave alone. I do believe that I'll try to trade him for a king's ransom in my year-long league so that I can sleep at night. But in DFS, while I might be less likely to take him on the second night of a B2B, I have to take a chance on him most nights because he's just that good.

George returned Sunday:Paul George returned from sitting out six of his past seven games with back and ankle injuries in time to lead the Pacers to a road upset of the Clippers on Sunday. George's shot is rusty (10-of-25 FG combined Sunday/Monday), but his 18 boards and four steals are good signs that he is healthy enough to be frisky on defense.

Millsap returned Monday:Paul Millsap returned from the hip injury that sidelined him for three games in time for a close loss to the Thunder on Monday. Millsap was hot from the field, scoring 24 points on only 14 field goal attempts, and also notched five boards, four assists and three steals in 39 minutes. The minutes are the most convincing indicator of his health, but watch out for any word of setback.

Klay finally went boom: On Saturday I was on the Rotowire Sirius XM show, and D.J. Trainor asked me if I thought Saturday was the night that Klay Thompson would finally explode. He had been solid for the Warriors, but he hadn't had that one monster game yet and it felt like it was coming. I told him that I agreed that Klay was going to detonate soon, but it was hard to predict exactly what day it would happen. Well, Klay did have a good game on Saturday against the Suns, but it wasn't the explosion. He saved the kaboom for Monday, when he poured in a career-high 60 points in only 29 minutes against a hapless Pacers defense.

Klay needed only 33 field goal attempts, as he knocked down 21 of them (including eight treys) and went 10-for-11 from the field. If the game wasn't a blowout, he easily could have had more. Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry are the two most consistent scorers on the Warriors, but when Klay gets in a zone there's NOBODY in the NBA who gets as hot as he does. Klay is another descendent of Reggie Miller and Ray Allen, who taught the league how to weaponize the 3-pointer.

Rondo's Monday suspension:Rajon Rondo sat out Monday's game due to a team-suspension for conduct detrimental to the team. This came after he had a "heated exchange" with a Bulls assistant coach on Saturday, when he was in the midst of a horrid two-point/two-assist/two-rebound/five-turnover game that sunk one of my DFS rosters that night. Rondo has always been mercurial, but he has reportedly apologized for the incident and has been cleared to play on Tuesday. And what this incident obscures is that prior to Saturday, Rondo had been playing excellent ball to the tune of 10.5 points, 9.5 boards, 9.3 assists, 1.8 steals and even 1.7 treys per game over his previous six outings.

I.T. hurt Monday:Isaiah Thomas suffered a pulled groin on Monday and did not practice on Tuesday. Though the injury isn't deemed serious, this brings into question whether he will be available on Wednesday against the Magic. Thomas is a player that lives by his quickness, so a muscle injury to an area like the groin is worth keeping an eye on to avoid it becoming a longer term problem.

Simmons will play point guard, Embiid update:Joel Embiid continues to be one of my favorite players to watch. He remains on a minutes restriction and unable to play both legs of a back-to-back, but his minutes have crept up slightly, with three straight games with between 25 and 27 minutes played. Embiid has averaged 20.5 points, 7.7 boards, 2.7 blocks and 2.0 treys in only 24.7 minutes over his last six games.

Meanwhile, his fellow generational talent teammate, Ben Simmons, was in the news this week when 76ers Coach Brett Brown said that when he returns from injury, Simmons will immediately become the point guard. It had been thought that Simmons would eventually play some point, but Brown's intention is to start him there from the beginning and let him develop. I had been skeptical that Simmons would play at all this season, feeling that the 76ers had nothing to gain from rushing their franchise rookie back. However, if the Sixers see this as a chance to get Simmons some run at point guard on an NBA level in a lost season anyway, perhaps they will bring him back after all. While no timetable has been announced for his return, current speculation has him back in action sometime in January.

Barbershop convo, shout out the two opposing viewpoints: On Thursday I wrote up a Barbershop Conversation on my Hoops Lab blog. For those who are unfamiliar, a Barbershop Conversation on my site picks a player or group of players from any time in history and argues over which is better. Like you'd do if you were in a barbershop, only with more words. Anyway, the argument this week was about which was the better duo with which to start a team: Michael Jordan and Karl Malone, or Shaquille O'Neal and Stephen Curry?

There have already been some interesting points made, with Matt d'anna choosing one side

Shaq and Steph https://t.co/j1CyZaYEpg

— matt d'anna (@hoop_nerd) December 1, 2016

While Dennis Porto fell STRONGLY in the other camp:

@ProfessorDrz@RotoWire@SHAQ@StephenCurry30 Shaq over Malone but not lopsided... my god curry Mj matchup is laughable next question

— Dennis Porto (@portocuba) December 1, 2016

New Additions and DFS value

John Henson, Bucks (44% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Henson has settled in as the center in Milwaukee and his consistent defensive effort makes up for his inconsistent scoring. In his last five games, he has averaged 13.4 points, 7.2 boards, 3.0 blocks, 1.4 assists and 0.6 steals while shooting 53.5% from the field and even 80.8% from the line.

Sergio Rodriguez (30% owned) & Dario Saric, 76ers (48% owned): Rodriguez has moved back into the starting lineup with Jerryd Bayless (wrist) out and responded by averaging 12.6 points, 7.2 assists, 3.4 boards, 1.8 steals and 2.4 treys with 48% FG and 100% FT over his last five games. Saric, meanwhile, tends to be the forgotten rookie in Philadelphia but he's put up 19 points, 10 boards, three treys, an assist and a steal per game on 54.2% FG and 85.7% FT in his last two contests, indicating he may be ready for a larger role.

Andrew Harrison (34% owned) & Troy Daniels, Grizzlies (24% owned): The Grizzlies have been racked by injuries and currently have some unexpected contributors intheir backcourt. Daniels has been given the green light to shoot at will, and he's taking advantage to the tune of 24.5 points with 5.0 treys on 53.1% FG over his last four outings. Harrison, meanwhile, is starting at point guard and putting up a more modest (but likely more sustainable) 12.5 points, 4.8 assists, 3.5 boards, 1.8 treys, 1.3 steals and even 0.5 blocks in 33.8 minutes over his last four games but on only 40% FG & 61.1% FT shooting.

Keeping up with the Professor

The Hoops Lab is now a blog with daily content, so check out/follow hoopslab.rotowire.com for the freshest NBA content every day. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio on Rotowire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210 on Tuesdays at 1:30 PM EST. Plus, I'm doing DFS articles just about every day, writing analytics pieces for Nylon Calculus on the Fansided Network, and I co-host the TYTSports basketball show on the weekends.