The Prospect Post: Scouting Joel Embiid

It is very difficult to find a comparison for Embiid that makes sense, probably because one does not exist, but that has not stopped people from trying.

The Hakeem Olajuwon Comps

We have all seen and heard these comparisons for a while now.

My first inclination after watching Embiid in the preseason was that these comps are ridiculous, simply because we are talking about two completely different categories of athlete. Hakeem Olajuwon finished his career listed at 7-feet, 255 pounds, but for most of his career he was closer to 240 pounds. Embiid is officially listed at 7-feet, 250 pounds, which is, of course, absurd. He admitted last year that he was 7-foot-2 in sandals and growing, and all one has to do is watch him standing next to Jahlil Okafor (listed at 6-foot-11) to see that Embiid is probably around 7-foot-3 in basketball shoes. He is also closer to 300 pounds than 250 pounds.

The Sixers are lying about the height and weight of their star center for good reason. There is a big difference in mobility and health risk (more on this later) for a player who is 7-foot-3, 290 pounds than for a player who is 7-feet, 250 pounds. They are protecting against a certain perception.

Unlike the Sixers, the tape does not lie. Because of his size, he has certain physical limitations that are particularly evident in the halfcourt when he faces a double team, and is not allowed to simply take his time to overpower someone in a one-on-one situation.

These two clips from a preseason game against the Celtics illustrate how easy it is to force Embiid into a turnover by simply sending another player of any size over to help out his man:

Later in that same game, he is so concerned about the double team coming that he rushes into a low-percentage contested fall away:

While this shot is superbly defended by Amir Johnson, it is a shot that Embiid could become adept at making in a couple years, but he is not there yet. Those early double teams not only resulted in turnovers on the specific possessions, but they forced a bad shot on a later possession by the Sixers' best rebounder, which is essentially a turnover.

Embiid is later forced into a jump ball by a double team from Al Horford:

Perhaps just as telling as the fact he could not handle or quickly pass out of another double team is the fact that he lost the jump ball, despite having five inches on Horford. Embiid has the size and wingspan to be an excellent low-post scorer and a defensive force, but he lacks the unique quickness and explosiveness that made Olajuwon special.

While I stand by that assessment, Embiid did this against Steven Adams in the second game of the regular season:

Thunder coach Billy Donovan echoed the Olajuwon comp, and it is easy to see why:

The two moves look similar, but Olajuwon's spin move is noticeably quicker and results in a complete blow by and dunk, while Embiid just does enough to create the separation he needs to put up a floater. This is all about footwork and agility. Olajuwon's spin takes everyone by surprise and renders Patrick Ewing completely helpless. Embiid's move is slower, requires more steps and a touch shot at the end. A more prepared and engaged defense would have sent help to Steven Adams, and Adams could even be reasonably expected to move his feet better to cut Embiid off.

Here is what Olajuwon was capable of doing to one of the best defensive centers of all time, thanks to that elite quickness, agility and footwork:

This is obviously a "don't try this at home" type of move. I would not have expected Embiid to get even 70 or 80 percent of the way to replicating the Olajuwon/Ewing spin move, and he has already proved me wrong. If he ever gets close to this all-time Dream Shake, then we could be looking at an all-time great, if he stays healthy.

What Is Joel Embiid?

While there are similarities, he is not quite Olajuwon 2.0, no matter how desperate people are to make that comparison. So what is Embiid? He is an elite rim protector who is in the early stages of developing what could be an incredible offensive skill set.

Few defenders in the history of the league would be able to block this shot while not committing a foul. It is actually quite impressive and surprising that he did not pick up a phantom foul here.

His height, length, and defensive instincts will allow him to record hundreds of fairly basic blocks, such as this one against Nikola Vucevic. However, he has also already shown the ability to make spectacular rim protection plays, and has the potential to win multiple defensive player of the year awards down the road. Through three games he is averaging 4.6 blocks per 36 minutes.

On the offensive side, all of the hype surrounding his start to the season seems to focus on his post moves and three-point shooting. However, through three games he has actually been mediocre from the paint, and his two made threes have been beyond wide open and from straight on. The biggest offensive weapon he has displayed through three games is a dominant mid-range game.

Those are relatively unguardable shots, and most impressively he is already clearly comfortable shooting off the dribble, which is rare for any center, especially a rookie.

In addition to his excellent mid-range game and ability to knock down open threes, he is outstanding at getting to the hoop and finishing when he is given the chance to go downhill and not change direction.

However, if opponents step in front of him on these drives, he often does not have a backup plan, which can lead to him getting bailed out by defensive foul calls, but will also lead to a lot of offensive fouls, poor shots and turnovers. That is just another element of the scouting report (like his inability to handle double teams) that will quickly become common knowledge across the league, which will force Embiid to make adjustments.

Here is an example from Tuesday's game against the Magic of what happens when he gets to isolate his man on the wing and the double team does not come:

There is no denying that Embiid has been pretty spectacular in the early going, but he has also faced some very unprepared defenses.

The determining factor for whether he will go down as one of the league's most dynamic big men is his health. It is already pretty noticeable that he lands on his left foot on his jump shots as a way to protect his surgically repaired right foot. This type of overcompensating can sometimes lead to other injuries, especially when it is a player of his size that is putting added stress on a specific side of his body.

He is averaging 21 minutes per game, and the Sixers should be applauded for handling him this way. Essentially, Embiid needs to be treated like a pitcher working his way back from a serious arm injury. He should be handled with kid gloves this season, getting some strategic DNPs while never playing more than 30 minutes in a game. Then, if he can make it through the year healthy, the training wheels could come off next season. Injury risks aside, the long-term ceiling for the Sixers is high, and the process seems to have worked.

I am introducing a new feature for this year's Prospect Post series, where every two weeks the top-10 prospects for the 2017 NBA Draft will be updated. Here is the preseason top 10:

Top 10 Prospects

1. Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington
2. Josh Jackson, SF, Kansas
3. Frank Ntilikina, PG, France
4. Dennis Smith, PG, North Carolina State
5. Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke
6. Jonathan Isaac, SF, Florida State
7. Harry Giles, PF, Duke
8. Ivan Rabb, PF, California
9. De'Aaron Fox, PG, Kentucky
10. Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA