The Prospect Post: NBA Mock Draft 4.0

1. D'Angelo Russell, PG, Ohio State (previous spot: No. 3)

The top guy on my board, Russell has a lot of the same qualities as Stephen Curry, just in the way he allows a team to build its offense. Obviously he is not the same shooter -- nobody is -- but he might be a better passer and he is certainly a better defender. With a player like Russell, a team's offense can devastate the opposition in pick-n-rolls and in transition, and he also fits the bill of a player who can create his own shot in high-leverage situations. I would take the field over Russell if asked to say who the best player from this draft will be, but if I had to bet on one guy to be a 10-time All-Star, it's Russell. The idea of pairing Russell and Andrew Wiggins is extremely intriguing on both ends of the court. If Minnesota goes this route, Ricky Rubio or Zach LaVine, or perhaps both players, would be flipped in short order as I don't think they would take Russell without having some deals lined up to move those guys.

2. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky (previous spot: No. 2)

This is the Lakers' dream scenario. Towns just feels like he should be a Laker. Part of this is because I see Towns as a better version of the good version of Andrew Bynum, and like Bynum, Towns seems like he would love all that Los Angeles has to offer off the court. It's a question of team-building strategy in terms of whether an organization would opt for a franchise center or a franchise wing/guard, but Towns certainly fits the bill as a franchise center. He has the highest two-way ceiling of the big men in the mix to go in the top five, but it would be interesting to hear what teams thought of his makeup in pre-draft interviews. This is not to say Towns has bad makeup, but I wonder how well he would fit in somewhere like Golden State or San Antonio, where the culture is as important as the basketball.

3. Kristaps Porzingis, SF, Sevilla (previous spot: No. 4)

Even if he doesn't want to be labeled a mystery man, Porzingis is certainly that. One report painted him as someone who can shoot like Dirk Nowitzki while having the athleticism of Pau Gasol. So he's basically going to be the best big man of all time. The hype train left the station in a big way with Porzingis last week, and there doesn't seem to be any way he falls out of the top four if all the reports are true about how high teams are on him. One thing that plays a big role in scouting, and a reason why comps can be important, is that it is reassuring when a player reminds you of another player who has had success. It helps to have seen "it" before. Well, with Porzingis, I have seen "it" before and "it" has failed in the NBA more often than not. It's fine to appeal to the authority of those who have been in his workouts with teams, but it cannot be said taking Porzingis this high is not a proposition wrought with risk.

4. Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke (previous spot: No. 1)

Rejoice Knicks fans! It's crazy to think that the one guy the Knicks wanted all season was Okafor and when they got the fourth pick that dream seemed dead. However, Russell and Porzingis have established that they are similarly valuable assets, so there is a chance the Knicks may still get their man. Okafor has the most developed post game of any prospect since Tim Duncan, and Okafor is a freshman, while Duncan was a senior coming out of college. That said, his free-throw shooting and average post defense limit his ceiling, and his style of play runs counter to the way the game seems to be trending.

5. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China (previous spot: No. 6)

The Magic have a roster loaded with guys who could make it as average or better starters at their respective positions, but no guy who is so good that they should make this pick based on need. It seems fair to say that Elfrid Payton might be the worst starter on the team, especially given that he does not add shooting to make up for the fact that Victor Oladipo, while competent, does not really stretch defenses from the shooting guard spot. Mudiay would be a nice fit alongside Oladipo, and would give the Magic a third active, athletic defender on the perimeter. The fact that he played in China might actually make him more ready for the NBA than the typical college point guard, so do not expect many growing pains with Mudiay early in the season. This is not Dante Exum.

6. Justise Winslow, SG/SF, Duke (previous spot: No. 5)

Head coach George Karl will likely be intrigued by Winslow, Mario Hezonja and Stanley Johnson here. After coaching Andre Iguodala in Denver, I think a player like Winslow with many of the same characteristics would appeal to him. Winslow will certainly have to prove that he can defend like Iguodala at the next level, but it seems pretty clear he'll be a better three-point shooter than Iggy, and he has many of the same intangibles that made Iguodala so valuable in Golden State's title run.

7. Mario Hezonja, SG/SF, Barcelona (previous spot: No. 10)

Hezonja might be what Danilo Gallinari was supposed to be. He should be able to shoot better than 40 percent from long range by year two and he has the athleticism and attitude to be a good wing defender as well. The Nuggets could be a very active team this summer, so there is a chance that their current roster will look very different when the season starts, but every team needs guys who can make it rain like Hezonja.

8. Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona (previous spot: No. 8)

Johnson would be a great fit for the Pistons if Winslow and Hezonja are both gone. They could also opt to just take the best shooter in the draft and pop Devin Booker, but Johnson has more potential as a two-way wing who can score in a variety of ways. It is hard to see the Pistons taking a big man and it is hard to see them take a guy who does not profile as a potential 40 percent three-point shooter. Johnson may not get there right away, but he has a projectable stroke and with a 6'11.5" wingspan he should be able to guard shooting guards and small forwards, as well as slower point guards and undersized power forwards.

9. Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky (previous spot: No. 7)

Cauley-Stein is the toughest guy to peg in terms of where he will go in the lottery. It is hard to say how many teams in today's culture would prefer a rim protector over a two-way wing or a well-rounded point guard. Five or 10 years ago Cauley-Stein might have been the No. 3 overall pick, but I could see him falling a bit if teams want to get smaller, faster and more versatile. The Warriors were at their best in the finals when Draymond Green was their biggest player on the court and the Heat won two titles with Chris Bosh as their primary big man, so it is a complete myth that a true rim-protecting post player is necessary to win a title. Still, with the ninth pick, Cauley-Stein brings enough to the table to be an intriguing option.

10. Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky (previous spot: No. 12)

Booker can flat out shoot. He doesn't need much space, and he has unlimited range. I've mentioned it before, but his measurables at the combine almost mirror those of Klay Thompson, so there's a chance he can be that type of player at the next level. Even if he only settles in as a taller J.J. Redick with better defense, that's a mighty fine player. The Heat have an interesting roster but they definitely lack three-point shooting. Head coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the best in the business, and he understands the need for better spacing this season. This seems like a perfect fit, but Booker would also be a great fit on Detroit with the eighth pick.

11. Frank Kaminsky, PF/C, Wisconsin (previous spot: No. 11)

He is deceptively quick off the dribble, and can get around slower big men. If the Pacers chose to use him this way, Kaminsky could also be devastating on the pick-n-pop, as he should be able to shoot at least 35 percent from NBA range on catch-and-shoots, and when teams try to cheat and take away the three, he can counter and beat his man while rolling traditionally to the rim. He shot 58.1 percent on two-pointers, 41.6 percent on three-pointers and 78 percent from the line as a senior at Wisconsin, so it's tough to question his offensive efficiency. This will be a nice change of pace from Roy Hibbert, who is a defensive specialist, and from David West, who lives in the mid range. Kaminsky does not quite match the defensive style of the Pacers, but that might be a good thing, as scoring was brutally difficult for this team without Paul George and Lance Stephenson last season, and Kaminsky is smart enough to fit within a defensive scheme.

12. Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky (previous spot: NR)

Lyles will come into the league with an old school skill set for a power forward, but there is a good chance he can develop into an outside threat as well. He stands just taller than 6-foot-10 and weighs 240 pounds, so he should be able to handle himself in the post. It might be a bit of an overlap with Derrick Favors already in place, but this would completely fill the Jazz's frontcourt for the next several years, working a trio of Favors, Lyles and Rudy Gobert to great effect. In fact, it could resemble what the Bulls have been able to do in recent years with several starter-quality bigs.

13. Myles Turner, C, Texas (previous spot: No. 9)

Turner is just another seven-footer in this draft with the potential to be a franchise center. He is raw compared to Towns and Okafor, but he could develop into a devastating post presence for Phoenix. Athletically his body works really well for his size. He moves around like a 6-foot-7 player, where everything seems proportional. Turner probably won't be good enough to start right away, but coming in behind a guy like Alex Len would be a good scenario for him to start his NBA career.

14. Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State (previous spot: NR)

Payne has long been rumored to have a promise from the Thunder at 14, so it makes sense to place him there in a mock. However, if he fell past 14 it would not be surprising to see him slide to the twenties. Naturally he gets compared to Damian Lillard as a point guard from a small school, but they are very different players. Payne is a jack of all trades, while Lillard is a master scorer/shooter. What the Thunder need is a shooting guard like Booker, but he'll be gone for this pick, and there are not other shooting guards really worthy of this spot. Payne and Russell Westbrook could play together to greater effect than Westbrook and Reggie Jackson did because Payne can operate as a pass-first point guard while Jackson was basically always doing his best Westbrook impression.

15. Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas (previous spot: No. 13)

Oubre is on par with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson as the two best physical specimens of all the wings in this draft, with better measurables than Johnson and Winslow and more athleticism. However, Oubre seems to lack a certain punch that those other three players have on both ends. He seems at his most comfortable when he is breaking someone down on the perimeter, trying to find his way to the basket for a highlight dunk. He is also comfortable hoisting spot-up three-pointers, but his game lacks urgency. Still, at 15, it makes sense to bet on the tools and hope that he can turn into a Harrison Barnes-esque player. With DeMarre Carroll set to be a free agent this summer, Oubre also serves as a perfect fit for Atlanta.

16. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona

Hollis-Jefferson is the classic wing player who will have to prove that he can be effective on both ends without a reliable jump shot. Either that, or he'll have to develop said jump shot. The 20-year-old wing has a very high motor, and plays with great passion and swagger, so the intangible ingredients are there for him to become a better shooter. At 6-7, 211 pounds, Hollis-Jefferson has the body, quickness and athleticism to guard the best wings in the league, and that is how his bread will be buttered, initially. He is also excellent at finishing around the rim on the break, as one would expect out of a player with his motor and physical gifts. The Celtics are still in asset-collection mode, so they will take the player at 16 they feel has the most upside, and Hollis-Jefferson may fit the bill.

17. Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas

Portis plays mean, and while he probably doesn't profile as a starting power forward on a good team, he could certainly be the first big off the bench. The Bucks are sneakily ready to compete this year, and Portis is someone who could step in as a rookie and play meaningful minutes. Kevon Looney is another guy who could make sense here, but he is much more raw, and would probably be a non-factor in the 2015-16 season.

18. Delon Wright, PG, Utah

Wright is an advanced metrics darling who also fills a need for the Rockets. His measurables at the combine were not as excellent as I had expected they might be, but he is still a 6-5.5 point guard, so he should be able to do an adequate job guarding either guard position most nights. He shot 55.4 percent on two-pointers and 83.6 percent from the free-throw line, and if he can improve upon his 35.6 percent shooting from three-point range, he could be a pretty excellent overall shooter in a few years. However, he will likely enter the league as an average, or worse, shooter from long range, which could limit his minutes during his rookie season.

19. Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA

Looney might be the rawest player expected to go in the top-20 picks. It would not be surprising if he spent some time in the D-League next year, as his jump shot needs a lot of work and he needs refinement in the post. That said, he has the upside to be one of the seven or eight best players in this draft if he puts the time in.

20. Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin (previous spot: No. 14)

Dekker is another very tricky player to place in a mock. It would not be surprising to see the Hawks take him at 15 or the Rockets at 18. Some mocks have him going in the top-10, which is outrageous considering the other players who will available at the back of the top-10, but Dekker is certainly the type of player who could be a workout warrior and completely win over a team that may not be as high on Booker or Johnson. The one thing going for Dekker's NBA prospects is that his game is much more of an NBA game than a college game, particularly given where he played in college. Throwing a behind-the-back pass, even when the situation called for it, got Dekker pulled from one game that I can remember. The fundamentals are not a big part of the package with Dekker, but athleticism and explosiveness are, and the only way to maximize those attributes is to give him certain freedoms he was not afforded at Wisconsin.

21. Tyus Jones, PG, Duke

This fit seems almost too good to be true. The worst-case scenario with Jones would be Jameer Nelson, and Nelson ran the show when the Mavericks were at their best last season. If there's anyone I might be too bullish on this year it is probably Jones, but his intelligence and pure point guard traits make it easy to overlook the fact that he was a DH last year at Duke. It's a workable setup when a player like Justise Winslow is tormenting the other team's best perimeter scorer, but if Jones finds himself on guys like Russell Westbrook or Kyrie Irving in a pick-n-roll, he'll be toast. Still, in fantasy, this is a guy who could offer eight-plus assists per night and a couple treys per game if he finds himself in the right situation.

22. Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame

This is where the draft starts to fall apart. It goes about 20 players deep in terms of potential impact guys, and then there are a bunch who could make it as solid role players. Grant seems like a classic Bulls backup point guard for the inevitable stretches when Derrick Rose is limited or unavailable.

23. Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville

Assuming, as many do, that LaMarcus Aldridge skips town this offseason, the Blazers will be in desperate need of someone to take on minutes at the four. While Harrell seems to profile as a seventh or eighth man on a fringe playoff team, he should be competent enough to offer 20-to-25 minutes per game if Portland comes into the season thin up front.

24. Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia

In Anderson, the Cavs would be getting a Thabo Sefolosha-esque wing, capable of guarding multiple positions and hitting corner three-pointers, at the very least. There is a chance he could carve out a 10-year career playing stellar defense and spacing the floor. I'm just not ready to fully buy into the 45.2 percent he shot from long range in 104 attempts last year considering he shot 29.4 percent on 102 attempts in the previous season at Virginia.

25. R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State

The Grizzlies finally improved their outside shooting a little last year, but they can still stand to get better in that area. Vince Carter will be 38 this year, so it would probably be best to add another body on the wing, and while Hunter is a little undersized, he fits the bill on the perimeter. Unlike players like Booker and Hezonja, Hunter figures to be just a shooter, with relatively little upside as an attacker off the dribble or as a defender.

26. Norman Powell, SG, UCLA

It was easy to predict the Spurs would pop Kyle Anderson last year when he was on the board for their pick, it was just shocking to actually see him last that long. Knowing the Spurs, they will get a guy like that to fall to them again, but if they don't, Powell could be an intriguing project. His athleticism is his calling card right now, but the Spurs have turned athletic non-shooters into marksmen before, and the primary example of that -- Danny Green -- happens to be a free agent this summer.

27. Andrew Harrison, PG, Kentucky

It's hard to say Harrison is a first-round talent, but it will be hard to say that about a handful of guys who end up going in the last third of the first round. The Lakers need help at the point, and Harrison represents a guy who should be solid enough to take backup minutes.

28. J.P. Tokoto, SG, North Carolina

Tokoto is the best athlete in the draft, and while the flaws in his game are endless, a team might gamble on the potential once all the safer options are off the board in the first round. He has the across-the-board potential to put up a 5x5, and could be the type of player who offers more than 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks per game in limited minutes.

29. Jarell Martin, PF, LSU

Martin could make a living as a backup big man who could average a double-double if given enough minutes. Trevor Booker and Drew Gooden were still kicking last year, and Martin can offer that kind of production.

30. Guillermo Hernangomez, C, Sevilla

What do you give the team that has everything? How about a foreigner to stash for a year or two. The Warriors are so deep that it's hard to see anybody at No. 30 would be good enough to get minutes next season.

James Anderson's Top-25 Big Board

D'Angelo Russell
Karl-Anthony Towns
Justise Winslow
Jahlil Okafor
Emmanuel Mudiay
Kristaps Porzingis
Frank Kaminsky
Stanley Johnson
Devin Booker
Mario Hezonja
Myles Turner
Willie Cauley-Stein
Kelly Oubre
Tyus Jones
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Cameron Payne
Bobby Portis
Trey Lyles
Sam Dekker
Jerian Grant
Delon Wright
Justin Anderson
Kevon Looney
R.J. Hunter
Jarell Martin