This article is part of our NBA Daily Games Strategy series.
It's late September, and your fantasy football DFS ROI is already deep in the red. Despair has settled in.
But lo and behold, on the horizon, a date draws near. The NBA season begins in a couple short weeks, and you will no doubt rise to the occasion, eager to whet your DFS appetite once again.
But what if you simply can't wait? You see the preseason contests on your favorite site, but as every savvy daily player knows, these games carry immense variance and are essentially a crapshoot. No one can possibly predict these preseason ups-and-downs. Right?
Not right.
In fact, if you adhere to some guidelines, follow the news, play some hunches and look at some cold hard facts about previous preseason storylines, these contests could very well present your best opportunity to rack up a big score.
Before we begin, let's roll out some stats that will give us some enlightening data. In short, both of these tables highlight most of the guidelines I recommend in preseason DFS lineup construction.
NBA PRESEASON 2017-18 LEADERS: AVERAGE POINTS SCORED PER GAME
Anthony Davis 20.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo 20.5
Stephen Curry 20.5
Paul George 20.3
Devin Booker 19.8
Avery Bradley 19.3
Damian Lillard 19.2
Eric Gordon 19.0
James Harden 18.8
Aaron Gordon 18.4
NBA PRESEASON 2017-18 LEADERS: AVERAGE MINUTES PLAYED PER GAME
James Harden 31.8
Paul George 31.8
Josh Jackson 30.0
Trevor Ariza 29.6
Justin Holiday 28.8
Devin Booker 28.3
Malik Monk 28.2
Tobias Harris 28.0
Kyle Kuzma 27.8
Tim Hardaway, Jr. 27.0
PLAYERS IN NEW ENVIRONMENTS
Take a look at who sits atop these lists. Sure, we see some of the usual suspects, but Paul George surged to almost first place in PPG and MPG last preseason. Why? Just like any new-comer, the Thunder had to play their new toy to get him accustomed to their system. More importantly, George needed to create synergy with another elite player on the floor. In Indiana, George didn't have a guy like Russell Westbrook. Not only did the duo need to learn how to share the spotlight, but the Thunder had to hone a method that would give them the best opportunity to succeed. That's why we see George near the top.
The same is true for Avery Bradley. He began last season as a Piston after seven seasons in Boston, where he was praised more for his defensive prowess than his scoring ability. The Pistons were set on changing his narrative and utilizing him as an offensive weapon, and the preseason stats bear that out.
If we look at 2018-19 we can already envision who the Georges/Bradleys/Arizas might be – DeMar DeRozan in San Antonio, Kawhi Leonard in Toronto, DeAndre Jordan in Dallas, and practically every new face for the Lakers are scenarios that come to mind. Trevor Ariza will also find new opportunities in Phoenix as a veteran who provides much-needed stability in the paint. Give yourself a refresher on free agent moves that occurred this offseason, and you can even find some second-team gems – more on them later.
INJURIES
Another situation to keep an eye out for is players who are coming off an injury, as well as the players replacing them if they are not ready for action. The numbers above feature examples of both situations. Chris Paul's absence from the floor in the preseason resulted in Eric Gordon's and James Harden's outputs spiking considerably. We'll see similar situations this year for Devin Booker in Phoenix, where we will likely see more time for rookie Mikal Bridges and Josh Jackson, while Booker recovers from hand surgery. There will also be players who have rehabbed completely from an injury like Gordon Hayward and Kawhi Leonard. Usually their tires will be kicked a bit more to test their in-season readiness.
ROOKIES
This category is perhaps the most obvious situation to consider in preseason lineup construction. Last year, Malik Monk and Josh Jackson were perfect examples of rookies who saw no shortage of action This preseason will showcase a host of exciting rookies like Deandre Ayton, Trae Young, Luka Doncic, Wendell Carter, and a plethora of others who could break into this year's Top 10. As a rule, rookies often see more time on teams that are below-average and desperately need a spark to begin their season. They're also used frequently by teams like the Warriors, who are perfectly content to rest their top-shelf guys for a half, or an entire game.
SECOND-UNIT GEMS
One of the most vital tasks to accomplish in the preseason is establishing a solid rotation. It's essential that NBA coaches find the right system to rest their starters and switch them out for guys on the bench. I find it beneficial to look at last season's trends and see who might be overlooked as second-unit guys.
Examples are veterans on the team that know the system already, or players who are stepping into a larger role following another player's departure. Two players who are perfect examples both come from Cleveland. With LeBron gone, I'd expect Cedi Osman and Larry Nance to emerge as second-unit stars and even potential starters down the road for the new-look Cavaliers.
CLOSING THOUGHTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Despite the variables afoot in preseason play, the elite players WILL play. They likely won't see their full workloads, but even when they're limited, they can still be productive. Damian Lillard, for instance, played only 12 minutes in Saturday's opener against Toronto. Thirteen other Blazers played at least 12 minutes in the game, but Lillard was still the team's second-leading scorer, putting up 12 points on just four field goal attempts (and four free throws). It doesn't always work that way, of course, but a top-20 player can outproduce a borderline-roster guy in half of the minutes.
With that in mind, I can offer some pieces of advice that hold true in the regular season, as well. Do your homework. Find out who's been seeing more minutes than usual, and work every angle you can to find your targets. Subscribe to team Twitter feeds. Look for breaking news on RotoWire (naturally). And, finally, if you can't be at a phone or your computer before tip-off, it might be best to not play at all that evening. As the preseason comes to an end you'll see a lot of last- minute changes as teams solidify their starters.
