Charlie's NBAngle: Kobe at 40

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Updated on October 24, 2014 12:36PM EST

My reaction to Kobe Bryant's placement on ESPN's NBA Player Rankings went something like this:

"Forty? Hm. Seems a bit high."

The reaction from most people on the Internet was more like this:

I get it. Really, I do. The devotion some fans feel toward Kobe reminds me of the way Yankees fans feel about Derek Jeter. And as a Yankees fan, I bristled at the suggestion that Jeter is the reason the Yankees didn't make the playoffs this season. Was he great? No. But the injuries to the pitching staff, dismal seasons from Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran, and the decision not to re-sign Robinson Cano seemed like far bigger problems than Jeter's OPS. So yeah, I got a little defensive.

On the other hand, Jeter's career highlights don't – and shouldn't – factor in when considering his performance in 2014. Same goes for Kobe. He's one of the greatest players I've ever seen. He was the the logical successor – in style of play and in attitude – to Michael Jordan. (LeBron strikes me more as a Magic Johnson type.) You could even say that Bryant deserves some credit for LeBron's success. According to a number of reports, James, Dwyane Wade, and other up-and-coming ballers learned a great deal about training and discipline from Kobe during the run to the 2008 Olympic gold medal.

But when I'm assessing Kobe's prospects for the 2014-15 season, I'm not thinking about his rings or his legendary work ethic. Instead,

My reaction to Kobe Bryant's placement on ESPN's NBA Player Rankings went something like this:

"Forty? Hm. Seems a bit high."

The reaction from most people on the Internet was more like this:

But when I'm assessing Kobe's prospects for the 2014-15 season, I'm not thinking about his rings or his legendary work ethic. Instead, I'm looking at a player who is 36 – an old 36, too, as he's been playing NBA minutes since he was just 18 – who is coming off multiple major injuries and who played in just six games last season. I don't care how hard he works. I don't care how many experimental German blood transfusions he's had. I'm going to let someone else risk giving him a roster spot, unless he's available as a late-stage "take a flyer on this guy what's the worst that could happen" pick.

Incidentally, the stat gurus here at RotoWire seem to agree. In a standard eight-category roto format, Kobe barely cracks the top 100 in our rankings. (Can we tell some Lakers fans that, get them to flock to the site, and post their protests in the comments? I'm sure the guys at HQ would appreciate the page views…)

Somebody Else's Problem

Kobe isn't the only player I'll be trying my best to avoid in drafts this year. Generally speaking, I'll try to avoid any player with a history – especially a recent history – of nagging injuries. This year's "do not draft" list also includes the likes of:

The charter member, at this point, is Steve Nash.

As for Dwyane Wade – I was skeptical of his ability to stay healthy for a full season even before LeBron took his talents back to Ohio. Without LBJ to pick up some of the slack, Wade's stock has fallen even further. At this point, I think he has to be treated the same way you'd treat a Manu Ginobili. Expect good across-the-board numbers, but don't expect more than 50-60 games, and plan accordingly.

Then there's Derrick Rose. He's just 26 years old, which is a plus. On the other hand, he's played in just 49 games over the last three seasons. I'm cautiously optimistic that he'll be able to return to something approaching his MVP form, but I'm only taking him if I can get him at a discount.

Of course, there's a flipside to the "Do Not Draft" list. For every player I'm avoiding because I don't think he'll stay healthy, there's another that stands to benefit. My lack of faith in Bryant and Nash means I'm high on Jeremy Lin. Brook Lopez' status means Mason Plumlee is more valuable. I don't want Gordon, but I'd be pleased to own Tyreke Evans, who I consider to be a "post-hype sleeper" at this point, and Wilson Chandler makes for good Gallinari insurance.

Youth Movement. Or Not.

On Tuesday, we started to draft this year's edition of the Sirius/XM Dynasty league. The format is… unique. There are sixteen teams, and we keep 17 players each year, which means the player pool for this draft is mostly limited to the 2014 draft class and Beno Udrih.

I had the fourth pick.

The first three names off the board were the ones you'd expect. Jabari Parker. Andrew Wiggins. Elfrid Payton. I considered Joel Embiid, but I wanted someone who would contribute right away. Julius Randle is blocked by Carlos Boozer, Marcus Smart by Rajon Rondo and/or Avery Bradley. Dante Exum is 19, as are Aaron Gordon and Bruno Caboclo.

I eventually settled on K.J. McDaniels.

McDaniels doesn't have a resume half as impressive as most of the other guys in his draft class. But he's something they don't have – a very good chance to play starter's minutes for the bulk of the season. (And, like Payton, he's a good bet to post valuable steal numbers.)

That doesn't mean there aren't good fantasy options in this year's rookie class. I just think most of them won't really approach their potential for a year or two. You're more likely to find values in the sophomore class, especially with players that weren't particularly impressive last season.

Otto Porter has looked very good in the preseason, and Bradley Beal's (wrist) injury gives him an opportunity to win a regular job.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could step up while Jodie Meeks is on the shelf. Detroit really needs someone to emerge as a long-range shooting threat.
Steven Adams might be OKC's starting center.
Kelly Olynyk might be Boston's.
Trey Burke – who finished last season strong – and Rudy Gobert – one of the stars of this summer's World Cup – will have big roles in Utah.

Incidentally, I've had Derrick Rose in this league for two years and counting, which is probably a big reason I'm so hesitant to draft injured guys now.