This article is part of our Hoops Lab series.
Earlier this year, Bucks head coach Jason Kidd said this about Giannis Antetokounmpo:
"Having been around some of the best in the world in LeBron (James) and Dirk (Nowitzki), wouldn't it be cool to have those two combined as one player? Maybe that could happen."
Antetokounmpo has always been one of the most difficult players to find a historical comp for, because he's such an unlikely combination of physical ridiculousness and cross-positional skills. Hence, the nickname, The Greek Freak. However, if we're able to play mad scientist and combine the traits of multiple players, perhaps that is the key to putting Antetokounmpo's potential into context. But the follow-up question is: are LeBron and Dirk a good combination for him? Let's explore that a bit more, focusing on their fantasy/rotisserie type outputs.
LeBron's peak seasons as far as statistical output were 2009 and 2010, in which he averaged:
29.1 pts (50% FG, 77% FT), 7.4 reb, 7.9 ast, 1.7 stl, 1.1 blk, 1.7 treys, 3.2 TO
Dirk's peak seasons from a box score perspective were 2006 and 2007, in which he averaged:
25.6 pts (49% FG, 90% FT), 8.9 reb, 3.1 ast, 0.7 stl, 0.9 blk, 1.1 treys, 2.0 TO
And finally, here are Antetokounmpo's stats for this year, through 27 games:
22.9 pts (52% FG, 77% FT), 9.1 reb, 5.8 ast, 2.1 stl, 2.0 blk, 0.7 treys, 3.1 TO
First of all, let's all have an "Oh, snap!" moment for the fact that the Greek Freak's
Earlier this year, Bucks head coach Jason Kidd said this about Giannis Antetokounmpo:
"Having been around some of the best in the world in LeBron (James) and Dirk (Nowitzki), wouldn't it be cool to have those two combined as one player? Maybe that could happen."
Antetokounmpo has always been one of the most difficult players to find a historical comp for, because he's such an unlikely combination of physical ridiculousness and cross-positional skills. Hence, the nickname, The Greek Freak. However, if we're able to play mad scientist and combine the traits of multiple players, perhaps that is the key to putting Antetokounmpo's potential into context. But the follow-up question is: are LeBron and Dirk a good combination for him? Let's explore that a bit more, focusing on their fantasy/rotisserie type outputs.
LeBron's peak seasons as far as statistical output were 2009 and 2010, in which he averaged:
29.1 pts (50% FG, 77% FT), 7.4 reb, 7.9 ast, 1.7 stl, 1.1 blk, 1.7 treys, 3.2 TO
Dirk's peak seasons from a box score perspective were 2006 and 2007, in which he averaged:
25.6 pts (49% FG, 90% FT), 8.9 reb, 3.1 ast, 0.7 stl, 0.9 blk, 1.1 treys, 2.0 TO
And finally, here are Antetokounmpo's stats for this year, through 27 games:
22.9 pts (52% FG, 77% FT), 9.1 reb, 5.8 ast, 2.1 stl, 2.0 blk, 0.7 treys, 3.1 TO
First of all, let's all have an "Oh, snap!" moment for the fact that the Greek Freak's stat line is VERY comparable, right now, to two of the greatest forwards in NBA history. In his first year playing this position. And he just turned 22 this month. Oh, Snap!
Now, let's look closer at the numbers. There are a lot of gross similarities here, such as field goal percentage (similar to both), free throw percentage (similar to LeBron), rebounds (similar to Dirk), assists (right between LeBron and Dirk) and turnovers (similar to LeBron).
However, there are also some places where the mix isn't perfect. Giannis, currently, isn't in their range as a volume scorer, nor as a 3-point shooter. While he is young, and may have the ability to ramp up further as a scorer and shooter, I don't feel that scoring at Dirk/LeBron levels will ever be the best usage for the Greek Freak. It feels like his strength is more as the Pippen-type model than the Jordan one. In addition, Antetokounmpo is already a much better shot-blocker than they ever were, and slightly better in steals and rebounding, than the two legends. I think this is what differentiates him from them in a positive way, and isn't accounted for by any combination of them. While this is still a very strong combo comp, I wonder if we can do better.
I do like the LeBron half of the comparison, as he's another freak that clearly is the template for the type of point-forward-in-power-forward-body that the Greek Freak is growing into. However, instead of Dirk, I wonder if someone with more of a defensive bent might be the better second player. Two players that immediately come to mind are Shawn Marion or Andrei Kirilenko. At their peaks, here were their stat lines:
Marion (05, 06): 20.6 pts (50% FG, 82% FT), 11.6 reb, 1.8 ast, 2.0 stl, 1.6 blk, 1.3 treys, 1.5 TO
Kirilenko (04, 05): 16.2 pts (46% FG, 79% FT), 7.4 reb, 3.2 ast, 1.8 stl, 2.9 blk, 0.8 treys, 2.6 TO
Kirilenko accounts for Antetokounmpo's shot-blocking prowess, is most similar as a volume 3-point shooter, and also has the most similar body type. On the other hand, Marion accounts for the rebounding, and has the most similar combination of steals and blocks at almost equal ratio the way that Antetokounmpo does. If we mix either of these stat lines with LeBron's, that seems to me to be more similar to what Giannis might develop into than pairing LeBron with Dirk. And if we're allowed to sprinkle LeBron, Marion and Kirilenko into the pot together, I think that is ultimately what would allow us to capture every aspect of Antetokounmpo's potential peak.
(OK, I just went back and re-read what I just wrote, and remembered again that we're talking about a 7-foot, 22-year old who is in his first full year playing a new position and is still relatively new to basketball. Once again, all together now…OH, SNAP!)
Around the NBA
Griffin's knee surgery = Awesome Paul: Blake Griffin underwent successful arthroscopic surgery Tuesday and is expected to miss four-to-six weeks. In the Clippers' first game without him they started Paul Pierce at power forward, but the 39-year-old only played 18 minutes. It doesn't appear, as yet, that Grifin's absence will open the way for a new forward to emerge, but it does clear the way for Chris Paul to be awesome. In Griffin's absence a few weeks ago against the Nets, Paul notched a triple-double. In his absence against the Pelicans two weeks ago, Paul notched his first ever 20-points/20-assists/0-turnovers game. And on Tuesday, Griffin's surgery da, Paul came two rebounds shy of another triple-double. He has to carry more load for the Clippers to be successful without Griffin, and so far it seems that Paul is up to it.
Love still banged up: Kevin Love bruised his left knee on Saturday against the Lakers, and subsequently sat out on Tuesday and Wednesday's games against the Bucks. He is listed as questionable for Friday's matchup with Brooklyn, but even if he doesn't play the injury is considered minor, so he should be good to go for the Cavs' Christmas Day showdown with Golden State.
Howard's back: Dwight Howard has been held out of the last two games due to tightness in his back. With his history of back ailments, any indication that everything isn't perfect in that area is worth paying attention to. However, Howard did say Wednesday that his back is feeling better, so this doesn't seem like a serious injury at this time. But again, if you're a Howard owner, you have to at least be aware of the situation.
Capela's broken fibula: Clint Capela is expected to miss "upwards of six weeks" of action with a broken fibula. In Capela's first game out, Montrezl Harell played 22 minutes and scored nine points with five boards, two assists and a steal while Nene played only 18 minutes but notched 10 points with seven boards. Either has the potential to get on the fantasy radar with Capela out, but only if one or the other starts nabbing a lion's share of the minutes.
Lopez joining rest train: Brook Lopez joined the list of veteran players taking days off to rest, sitting out Tuesday as a healthy scratch. While Lopez has played well for much of the season, there is at least some risk that this could become a bigger theme as the season goes along. Lopez is still only 28 years old, but he has had major injury issues in the past and is playing on a Nets team that is going nowhere this season. It would not be surprising to see him rested more and more often as the season goes along, or even (pure speculation on my part) shut down before the season ends. Why should the Nets risk playing him when he could still be a valuable asset if healthy in future years?
Another tick mark for Davis' unwanted list: Anthony Davis had to leave Friday's game against the Rockets due to a leg injury. He was able to come back and play (though not up to his standards) on Sunday, and was a monster again by Tuesday, but this is another check mark on Davis' unwanted list. I've started unofficially tracking the number of games that Davis misses/has to leave early, and this brings him up to three leave-game-injureds along with a full-game injury absence and a late-in-the-day healthy scratch. Right now he's at almost a shortened/missed game per week pace on the season, which is problematic in weekly leagues, especially as your team's best player.
New Additions and DFS value
Jon Leuer, F (46% owned in Yahoo! Leagues): Leuer has scored 16 or more points in four of his last five games off the bench, and Pistons head coach Stan Van Gundy has announced that there will be changes coming to the starting lineup. Leuer has shown his value even off the bench, but if he becomes a starter he would be worth owning in most 12-team leagues.
J.J. Barea, G (40% owned): Barea returned from a long injury absence on Monday to turn in 11 points, four assists, three boards, a steal and a trey in only 13 minutes of play. Once his minutes restriction is lifted and he returns to the kind of playing time he had earlier in the year, he is an easily rosterable player in many formats.
Tony Allen, G (32% owned): Allen is a known commodity at this point, but he's once again getting big minutes for the Grizz, which makes him a nightly double-digit scoring threat who is a good rebounder and excellent thief from the wing.
Manu Ginobili, G (7% owned): Ginobili is one of the oldest players in the NBA and doesn't play many minutes, but when he's on the court he makes his time count. Over his last four games, in less than 19 minutes per game, Ginobili has averaged 10.8 points with 2.8 assists, 2.3 treys, 2.0 boards and 1.8 steals. He's liable to sit at any time to rest, but in daily transaction leagues he can be a cheap source of some hard-to-get categories and in DFS he makes a nice punt play.
Keeping up with the Professor
The Hoops Lab is now a blog with daily content, so check out/follow for the freshest NBA content every day. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio on Rotowire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210 on Tuesdays at 1:30 PM EST. Plus, I'm doing DFS articles just about every day, writing analytics pieces for Nylon Calculus on the Fansided Network, and I co-host the TYTSports basketball show on the weekends.
