The Prospect Post: Is Ben Simmons a Loser by Default?

NBA heads are well aware of Ben Simmons at this point. The next LeBron? Probably not, but maybe. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft? He is certainly the front-runner. The best player on an NCAA tournament team? Those who focus on the NBA game would probably assume yes, based on the answers to the first two questions. Those who follow college hoops know better.

Yes, statistically Simmons has been the best player in college basketball this year, but it has not translated into team success. LSU will enter SEC play at 7-5 and as the 96th ranked team in the nation, according to KenPom. To make matters worse, they are just a hair above .500 despite playing a joke of a non-conference schedule. LSU has yet to face a ranked team and has played just two road games - a 70-58 loss at Charleston and a 105-98 overtime loss at Houston. In fact, CBS Sports' Matt Norlander recently wrote a column detailing how LSU could struggle to earn a bid to the NIT. That's right. The Tigers are major underdogs to even make the NCAA tournament, and nothing about the way the have played so far suggests that they are about to flip the proverbial "switch" in conference play that will allow them to get the big wins they will need to get a 10 or 11 seed on Selection Sunday.

Normally this wouldn't matter. Nobody cares whether LSU is in the tournament other than their own fans. At least that would be the case if the biggest name in college basketball was not on the team. This raises the question: should Simmons' prospect status be dinged at all, assuming LSU does not make the Big Dance? Of course, no amount of wins or losses in college make or break an NBA prospect, but rest assured, if LSU fails to make the NCAA tournament, or, perhaps even the NIT, there will be those who hold that against Simmons.

Here are some star players in the NBA who either never made an NCAA tournament or did not live up to expectations when they got there:

Kevin Durant lost in the second round in his only year with Texas.

James Harden lost in the second round in his second year with Arizona State. He missed the tournament his first year.

Paul George never made the tournament in two years at Fresno State.

Andre Drummond lost in the first round in his only year with UConn.

Klay Thompson never made the tournament in three years at Washington State.

Damian Lillard never made the tournament in four years at Weber State.

Chris Bosh never made the tournament in one year at Georgia Tech.

Most of these players' college careers lack parallels to Simmons' situation.

Durant will probably go down as one of the 25 best players of all time, and he led a Rick Barnes-coached Texas team to a win in the tournament, so while he did not live up to expectations in the tournament, he still accomplished more than Simmons is likely to. Even in the regular season, Durant's Texas team had 10 wins entering conference play, and finished the year 25-10, so there is not much of a comparison to the dumpster fire in Baton Rouge.

The same goes for Harden, who led the Sun Devils to a 25-10 record in his sophomore season, and then turned in an underwhelming individual performance in the second round of the NCAA tournament. It was a bit disappointing, but on the whole, his record as a winner holds up.

Fresno State has not been to the tournament since 2001 and has just one tournament win since 1982, so it is not surprising that George could not singlehandedly carry that program to the Big Dance. In addition, while George made for a high-upside prospect, he averaged 16.8 points and 7.2 rebounds in 33.2 minutes per game in his final year with the Bulldogs, so he was hardly the player Simmons is as a freshman.

Drummond was the ultimate project when he left UConn, and it is a testament to the developmental staff in Detroit and Drummond's hard work that he is in line to make his first All-Star appearance this year. He could occasionally use his physicality to dominate around the rim in college, but that amounted to 10.0 points and 7.6 rebounds in 28.4 minutes per game, so it is no surprise that he alone could not lead that Huskies team to a win in the tournament.

Thompson is a relatively close comparison, in that he played for a power conference school and had a high usage rate, particularly in his second and third years. However, he did not play with any future pros, and his development was such that he was not really on the radar as a potential lottery pick until after his junior year. Simmons plays with a relatively talented group, with Keith Hornsby and Craig Victor each averaging double-digit points, while Antonio Blakeney is a McDonald's All-American and Tim Quarterman could be an NBA draft pick in his own right. Thompson did not have near that level of talent around him, and yet his Cougars still went 22-13 in his final year at Washington State, a record LSU coach Johnny Jones would gladly take this year.

Lillard played in the Big Sky conference for a team that has produced just one pro (Lillard) this decade, which ends all comparisons to Simmons.

The best comparison one finds when looking for a player near Simmons' caliber whose team simply failed to have much success in his one year in college is Bosh. His 2002-03 Georgia Tech team went 16-15 and had a losing record in the ACC, easily missing the NCAA tournament. Bosh was the best player on that team, but he was not without quality secondary pieces, such as Jarrett Jack, B.J. Elder, and Marvin Lewis.

Additionally, Bosh played for a bad college basketball coach in Paul Hewitt, who went 190-162 at Georgia Tech and has since gone 66-67 at George Mason. Should LSU miss the tournament this year, everyone will pin Jones with the bulk of the blame, and it would not be surprising to see him lose his job based on this failure with the biggest recruit the school has seen since Shaquille O'Neal.

What we are seeing with Simmons and LSU is shocking, disappointing, and quite confusing, but it is not completely unprecedented. He went to LSU for reasons other than development and on-court success. He went because his godfather and fellow Aussie, David Patrick, is the associate head coach. That choice will likely cost him a chance to play in the NCAA tournament in his only year in college. Most fans won't agree with choosing a relationship over a chance to win, but it probably won't matter in the long run.

The Tigers' lack of success this year should be noted when evaluating Simmons, but it should be seen as less than five percent of the total profile, and possibly less than one percent. He still has all the potential in the world, and, like Bosh over a decade ago, he seems to have just found himself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Brandon Ingram is hot on Simmons' trail to be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, but if Simmons does not go first, everyone should be smart enough to not look to LSU's winning percentage as the reason why.