2024 NBA Finals: Celtics vs. Mavericks Prediction Based on History

2024 NBA Finals: Celtics vs. Mavericks Prediction Based on History

An 82-game NBA season that included the first in-season tournament was followed by three playoff rounds that all led to this, a clash between the Boston Celtics -- holders of the regular season's best record -- going up against a Dallas Mavericks squad that finished fifth in the Western Conference. 

How We Got Here

In their two regular-season matchups, Boston came out on top both times, including a blowout 138-110 win back in March. Looking ahead to the postseason, it's been relatively smooth sailing for the Celtics to make the 2024 NBA Finals, as they cruised past the Heat, Cavaliers and Pacers with 4-1, 4-1 and 4-0 series victories, respectively. It hasn't been significantly harder for the Mavericks, as they managed to knock off the Clippers, top-seeded Thunder and Timberwolves by 4-2, 4-2 and 4-1 margins from the opening round onward. 

Boston Celtics NBA Finals History

Only one team has more experience in the NBA Finals than the Celtics, and that is the rival Lakers, who have appeared in the Finals a record 32 times. Despite that, a win in 2024 would see Boston break the tie to become the most accomplished franchise in NBA history with their 18th title. The organization's success hasn't been recent though, as they last raised the Larry O'Brien Trophy in 2008. They did go six games versus the Warriors back in 2022 with a roster that included top 2024 postseason performers Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Al Horford

Dallas Mavericks NBA Finals History

On the flip side, the Mavericks as an organization lack experience in the Finals with just two prior appearances in 2006 and a successful title win in 2011. There is a lone holdover from the title-winning team, and that's Mavs coach Jason Kidd, who averaged 7.7 points per game in that series. While the Basketball Hall-of-Famer probably could still put up some points if he were to get on the court, he'll be stuck on the bench in this one. They'll need to rely heavily on Luka Doncic in order to secure a second NBA championship. 

Historical Advantage - Predicting a Winner

Not since the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors has the team with the best record in the regular season taken home the title, a trend that doesn't favor the Celtics securing that elusive 18th championship. Still, the fact that they cruised through the previous postseason rounds without a single series making it to a Game 6 shows how dominant this team can be. It's why the Celtics are heavy favorites to beat the Mavericks, including being -210 at the DraftKings Sportsbook compared to Dallas at +175. History appears to be on the side of the Celtics , both from a long-term and a short-term view. 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
AJ Scholz
Co-Host of PuckCast with Statsman and AJ and unabashed Penguins fan.
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