This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
If someone gave you $1,000 to spend on NBA futures, where would you put your money?
That's the premise for this preseason roundtable. We've put out iterations of this article in 2019 (COVID ruined this one, and we didn't post in 2020), 2021, 2022 and 2023.
Where are we looking this season?
Odds are subject to change
Alex Barutha
$250 - Milwaukee Bucks to win the NBA title (+1400, DraftKings)
As a Bucks fan, maybe I'm betting with my heart and not my mind. But Milwaukee is coincidentally the team with the longest odds that I'd bet to win the title. There's plenty of reason to be concerned about the Bucks' chances against the Celtics, 76ers and Knicks in the postseason. At the same time, the team won 49 games despite a coaching disaster/change, Damian Lillard not working out the previous summer and going through personal matters while trying to build chemistry with Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Khris Middleton played just 55 games. The absolute shell of this team took the Pacers to six games in the first round of the playoffs. Giannis didn't play at all, and Dame played four games. I'm conceding Lillard and Brook Lopez are getting older, and Middleton's injuries have been consistent lately. At 14-to-1, I'm still in on the idea of the pure talent coming together and pushing through.
$250 - Ime Udoka for Coach of the Year (+850, FanDuel)
Udoka is the odds leader for this award, and I think it's deserved. Coach of the Year is highly narrative-driven. You need the right combination of improvement, but not with too many roster changes; otherwise the general manager gets the credit. This team won 41 games last year despite having a young roster in a loaded conference. The only real change to this roster was adding Reed Sheppard in the draft. For fantasy, Houston is a tough situation to analyze because the roster is so deep. That makes it all the more interesting in real life. Maybe it takes close to 50 wins for Udoka to grab this award, but that's enough to grab me at 8-to-1.
$250 - Victor Wembanyama for Defensive Player of the Year (-150, BetMGM)
As a rookie, Wembanyama averaged 3.6 blocks and 1.2 steals in 29.7 minutes. He finished second in DPOY voting behind Rudy Gobert, getting 19 first-place votes to Gobert's 72. But listening to the narratives from the award voters, it was a combination of the Spurs being bad and Wembanyama being a rookie in contrast with Gobert's strong block numbers and team success. I'm not predicting the Spurs make the playoffs, but I think they'll actively try to win games this season (rather than sandbagging by playing Jeremy Sochan at point guard). I also think Wembanyama's defensive impact will simply be overwhelming. He could average a combined 5.5 blocks and steals.
$250 - Jalen Williams for Most Improved Player (+1200, FanDuel)
2014-2023 Most Improved Player award winners
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Average season of career: 4.5
Average stats: 22.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.5 APG, 2.0 STL+BLK
Average wins: 45.4 (includes the 2 covid years)
All-Star appearances: 7/10
I calculated the above stats before last season, and I don't feel a need to update it after Tyrese Maxey won the award last year in remarkably similar fashion: In the fourth year of his career, averaging 26/6/4, with the 76ers winning 47 games and him making his All-Star team.
I will hammer home the point that the most underrated aspect of this award is team success. If you don't think a player's team has a shot at 45 wins, you shouldn't bet him. I think Coby White should have been the true winner of this award last season, but the Bulls won 39 games, and he had 32 first-place votes compared to Maxey's 51.
Williams actually took fourth in MIP voting last year in what was a coming out party, if not a breakout season. But he did not make the All-Star team. Obviously, the wins won't be a concern here, since OKC is projected for the second-most wins in the NBA. He enters his third season after the Thunder shed Josh Giddey to the Bulls. Giddey took on a ton of playmaking responsibilities for OKC. That's gone, and a lot of it should funnel to Williams. Per 36 minutes with Giddey off the court last season, Williams averaged 26.4 points, 5.5 assists, 5.1 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocks. Sign me up.
Nick Whalen
$200: OKC Thunder to win the NBA Finals (+650)
I will readily admit that the Celtics are the best bet — and rightful favorite — at +310, but that's too boring my taste. So we'll go all the way down the board to the team with the second-lowest odds. I think this OKC roster is built to win a ton of games in the regular season and should be better-prepared for a playoff run with Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein in the mix. Young teams typically don't succeed in the postseason right away, so I view last year as a stepping stone for OKC. If you want to spice this one up, you can OKC to beat Boston, specifically, at 22/1.
$50: Cam Thomas to win the scoring title (45/1)
Look. Just in case. It's only $50.
$200: San Antonio Spurs U36.5 wins (-115)
I'm as big of a Victor Wembanyama supporter as you'll find, but the Spurs were a 22-win team last year and didn't make any major offseason splashes. Harrison Barnes and Chris Paul are ultimately veteran role players, while Stephon Castle is a nice long-term piece but not a player who will help them win games in the immediate future. Beyond that, Devin Vassell is on the shelf to begin the season. San Antonio will be better — but 15 wins better? I don't see it.
$150: Washington Wizards U20.5 wins (-120)
The Wizards won only 15 games a year ago, and I'm not sure this roster is any better — in fact, it's probably worse. Alex Sarr is an interesting long-term piece, but he will not be a winning player right away. Jonas Valanciunas could give them some stability early on, but… it's Jonas Valanciunas. I think the Wizards could struggle to get to 15 wins. Last year, only four of their victories came over teams with a winning record, and the league is even deeper now than it was last season.
$100: Miami Heat O45.5 wins (+120)
In recent years, Miami has been content to hang out in the bottom-half of the Eastern Conference playoff picture, but I think they make a more concerted effort to take the regular season seriously. That effort will be led by Jimmy Butler, who will need to stay healthy after playing 60 games a year ago. Tyler Herro also missed significant time, and the Heat were without Terry Rozier late in the year. With slightly better health luck, I like Miami to push for 47 or 48 wins.
$200: Bam Adebayo to win Defensive Player of the Year (14/1)
Victor Wembanyama is the heavy, heavy favorite at -170, and no other player is shorter than 12/1. If Wembanyama stays healthy, chances are he'll take home the award, but there's a very reasonable chance he could miss enough games to fall short of the NBA's minimum for award qualification. Adebayo finished third in the voting a year ago and has been vocal about his candidacy for the award. There's a case for Rudy Gobert (14/1), as well, but there could be some voter fatigue given that Gobert has already won it four times.
$100: Victor Wembanyama to make First Team All-NBA (+650)
Contrary to my previous bet, what if Wembanyama does stay healthy and have the sophomore season many think he can? If Wembanyama puts up something like 27-13-5 with 4 blocks per game, he'll be an MVP contender, even if the Spurs are a middling team. San Antonio's record will likely prevent him from actually winning the award, but if the numbers are overwhelming, Wembanyama will have an All-NBA case.
Kirien Sprecher
OKC to finish as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference (+130) – $500
The West is loaded, so I get OKC still being plus-money. The postseason will be anyone's game, but the Thunder are the only contending team that doesn't rely on veterans. I think they take the regular season seriously and run away with the top seed, while Denver, Dallas, Phoenix, Sacramento, Golden State and the teams in Los Angeles will have an eye toward the postseason. Minnesota is another threat, but I think it may take some time to adjust to life without Karl-Anthony Towns. OKC is +370 to have the best record in the NBA at the All-Star break. Boston remains the favorite, but Kristaps Porzingis is going to be out for at least the first few months of the campaign, limiting the Celtics' upside early.
Victor Wembanyama to win Defensive Player of the Year (-170) – $400
This should be -500. The only way Wembanyama doesn't win it is if he misses too much time due to injury *knocks on wood*. I don't think I really need to justify this, but I will anyway. Over his final 59 appearances as a rookie (basically when he switched to center), Wemby averaged 3.9 blocks and 1.3 steals per game. Only 9 players have blocked over four shots per game, and those nine players did it a combined 16 times. Between those players, there are 9 DPOY awards. I expect Wemby to join those ranks this season.
Anthony Edwards to win MVP (+1200) – $100
I'm stubborn and taking this for a second straight season even though it's probably Fool's Gold. I predicted Edwards would take a step forward before last year and help the Timberwolves to a top seed in the West. If that happened, Edwards surely would see some MVP votes, right?…right?!? Nope. Minnesota's defense was given the credit, and the youngster was supposedly helped out by veterans Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, with Karl-Anthony Towns also providing substantial production at times. But, let's be real. ANT is HIM. The departure of KAT should mean more opportunities for ANT to build an MVP case, but the voters probably won't give him one yet. Derrick Rose was the youngest MVP ever at 22, barely beating out Wes Unseld. ANT is heading into his age-23 season, and the only players who've won an MVP at that age are Moses Malone, Bob McAdoo, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell and Bob Pettit. That'd be quite the list to join, but I think it's within the realm of possibility, especially if Minnesota stays in contention this season.
Joel Bartilotta
MIA Heat Division Winner +180 ($200)
Everyone expects Orlando to finally catch Miami, but this has been the Heat's division for years. This team has won 16 division titles since 1998, winning 12 of the last 19 in total. People are also forgetting that Terry Rozier joined this team, and a core with Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro should not be overlooked in such a weak division.
James Harden Assists Leader +1000 ($100)
The odds say that this is going to be either Tyrese Haliburton or Trae Young, but let's not forget about Harden. The Beard is expected to return to the playmaking role that made him an MVP candidate in Houston, averaging 9.4 assists since the 2016 season. He's actually cracked 10.3 assists in three of the last four years, and seeing him with the ball more could make him a sneaky bet to capture the assists crown, especially with Kawhi Leonard nicked up.
Golden State Warriors to make the Playoffs -110 ($200)
This feels chalky but I love the depth that the Warriors have built. Replacing Klay Thompson with Buddy Hield and De'Anthony Melton is a net positive in my eye, and they have emerging youngsters like Jonathan Kuminga, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Brandin Podziemski stepping into bigger roles as well.
Phoenix Suns Over 46.5 Wins ($250)
Phoenix underperformed last season but still finished with a 49-33 record. It's difficult to understand why people are sleeping on a team like this, especially since they finally added a point guard in the offseason (Tyus Jones). They're averaging 55 wins over the last four seasons and could eclipse 46 wins in a "down" year.
Los Angeles Clippers Under 39.5 Wins ($250)
Paul George's departure already concerned me, but Kawhi Leonard dealing with a knee issue has me horrified. This team was built around those two, and it might leave Harden as the only man standing. He can carry a team, but it'll be difficult for them to win 40 games if Leonard is out because this is one of the ugliest rosters in a stacked Western Conference.
