Michael Fulmer

Fulmer had a rough go of it in 2020, closing out the year with an 8.78 ERA and 2.06 WHIP with a 20:12 K:BB over 27.2 innings. He failed to secure a victory over 10 starts, finishing with an 0-2 record. The 27-year-old was understandably handled with caution throughout the 2020 season, coming off 2019 Tommy John surgery. As a result, the Tigers didn't allow him to hurl more than three frames in any of his 10 appearances. Fulmer's fastball velocity was also noticeably down during the 60-game sprint, averaging 93.1mph compared to 95.8mph in 2018. With a disappointing return now in the rearview mirror, Fulmer will now set his sights on building up his arm strength for the 2021 season, with the hope of regaining some of his velocity and working deeper into ballgames. He'll be considered a risky selection by fantasy owners until he proves otherwise.

Fulmer signed a contract on Feb. 15, 2019 to avoid arbitration with Detroit, and that is essentially the last thing his right arm did in 2019. He came up with elbow pain in a late bullpen session in Lakeland, and by the end of March, had Tommy John surgery. It is not worth the roster spot to add the reclamation project to your roster in 2020. Even if Fulmer pitches this season, it will not be until late summer, and his statistics will almost certainly be unrosterable. If you are in a keeper league with a deep reserve bench, consider this: are the Tigers going to be any better in 2021?

Fulmer could have been moved at the deadline as part of the Tigers' rebuild had he not hurt his oblique before his first start after the All-Star break. Though, at that point, he was sporting a subpar 4.50 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with just 93 whiffs in 112 innings. He returned during the last week in August, starting five games before being shut down and undergoing surgery for a torn meniscus. After dipping in 2017, Fulmer's swinging-strike rate rebounded, buoying a 19.7 K%, in line with his rookie campaign but still below average. His walk rate was a career worst along with a bloated 14.5% HR/FB in tandem with a 5% increase in flyballs, explaining the high ratios. Fulmer's fastball was its usual 96 mph, though his slider dropped three mph. If he can fix his command and control, Fulmer will again be a candidate to be dealt to a contender. He's worth a speculative pick as a reserve/streamer but realize his strikeout rate and low wins potential limit his upside.

After a visit to Dr. James Andrews, Fulmer underwent ulnar transposition surgery on his throwing elbow in September. Barring setbacks, the right-hander is expected to be ready for spring training. The Tigers hope the procedure will correct the finger numbness and hand weakness Fulmer experienced, which probably hindered his shortened sophomore season. Following his 2016 Rookie of the Year win, he endured notable dips in ERA (3.06 to 3.83), K/9 (6.2, after 7.5 in his first season) and left-on-base percentage (79.0 to 65.6 percent). Fulmer, who turns 25 in March, owns an alluring combination of top-end velocity and a career 2.3 BB/9, which could become even more valuable if health brings back at least his 2016 K/9 (7.5) and possibly pushes it higher. Still, if he impresses in March, his price might climb to where the reward won’t match the risk. Fulmer may not round into peak form until later in the season.

Fulmer won the AL Rookie of the Year award after an impressive season where he would have finished second in the AL in ERA (3.09) had he enough innings to qualify. The big righty exceeded expectations with a top-30 SP finish. It's more impressive when one considers he was facing a potential demotion after four starts (6.52 ERA). His fifth start was when the team's catchers and pitching coach told him to start throwing his changeup more. It was a total game-changer. He had a 2.58 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 3.3 K/BB ratio in 139.2 frames from that point on while using his changeup 19 percent of the time. His ceiling has been raised, and while he could fall back a little bit in 2017, the future is bright.

Fulmer began 2015 as something of an afterthought among Mets pitching prospects. However, after a stellar 16-start run his value had risen to the point where he was worthy of being the top returning piece for Detroit in the Mets’ fortuitous deadline acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes. All told, the 22-year-old righty put up a 2.24 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 125 strikeouts in 124.2 innings, primarily with the two organization’s Double-A affiliates. Now, while those numbers are fairly eye-popping, Fulmer is still more of mid-rotation starter than a frontline arm, but his polish and pitchability are clearly evident. It would not be surprising to see him begin his age-23 season at Triple-A Toledo with a chance to join the big league rotation sometime this summer. While he probably won’t ever be a top-20 fantasy starter, this is the profile of a pitcher whose combination of stuff and command could transition fairly seamlessly against big league hitters.

Fulmer, drafted 44th overall in 2011 from an Oklahoma high school, had an excellent first full professional season, posting a 2.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 101:38 K:BB 138 innings for Low-A Savannah. He mixes a late-moving, mid-90s fastball with mid-80s hard slider and is working on a changeup. Fulmer should open 2012 at High-A St. Lucie and projects to be a No. 2 starter in the majors.