Luis Medina

Featuring a high-octane fastball and wicked slider, Medina enjoyed some nice stretches in 2023 and was a popular streamer at times, but he finished his rookie campaign with a rough 5.42 ERA and 1.51 WHIP across 17 starts and six relief appearances. He had the fourth-worst walk percentage (11.5) of the 127 major-league pitchers who logged more than 100 innings and turned in a 3-10 record for an Athletics team that lost 112 games and probably won't be any better in 2024. This wasn't a case of first-year jitters, either, as Medina also had real trouble finding the strike zone as he made his way through the minors. Maybe he can take a sudden step forward from a command standpoint, but it's not something to count on come draft day. On any other team, he might already be stuck in a permanent bullpen role at age 24.

Medina remains one of the game's ultimate boom or bust prospects. He was added to the 40-man roster this offseason despite having never pitched above High-A and was reportedly touching 102 mph with his fastball at the alternate site. He also has a devastating plus-plus curveball and a changeup that is at least plus. Medina was named the Pitcher of the Year in the Puerto Rican winter league after logging a 32:6 K:BB in 16.2 innings. That's not a tough league for someone with Medina's stuff, but the fact that he threw enough strikes to dominate is still an encouraging sign, given his longstanding command/control woes. He also finished 2019 on an upward trajectory, posting a 1.77 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 63 strikeouts over his final 45.2 innings. If he comes out this year throwing enough strikes to dominate at Double-A, the hype will start to build, but he could just as easily log a BB% north of 15%.

The ultimate high-risk/high-reward prospect, Medina could develop into an ace. He could also amount to nothing of value in fantasy. Those who follow prospects know this has long been the case, but 2019 was the first time he actually started flashing his ridiculously high ceiling over a prolonged stretch. Medina had a 3.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 93 strikeouts over his final 72.2 innings, and was truly dominant (1.77 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 63 strikeouts) over his final 45.2 innings. Shaky command/control was always his biggest weakness, so it was encouraging to see him walk two or fewer batters in six of his final eight starts, including a two-start run at High-A to close the year. He has an 80-grade fastball, 70-grade curveball and a changeup that flashes as a 60-grade pitch. That's a frontline arsenal. If his command gains are real and he stays healthy, Medina could finish 2020 as a top-five pitching prospect.

Reading into Medina's numbers in rookie ball is an exercise in futility. He is 18 years old, has a projectable 6-foot-2, 196-pound frame, and can park his fastball at 98 mph and reach back for easy triple-digit gas when needed. Those three characteristics are far more important to consider than any box score stats posted between stops in the Dominican Summer League and Appalachian League. A curveball that easily projects as a future plus offering gives him a realistic ninth-inning floor, and a changeup that also shows plus potential points to No. 1 starter ceiling. His command/control was obviously an issue last season. He walked at least two batters in all 10 outings, and only logged five innings twice. However, it takes time to harness such an electric arsenal. Medina may not be quite ready to open the year in a full-season league, but he'll almost certainly finish the year in one. His control issues could lead to more growing pains than the typical high-end pitching prospect, but the reward could also be unique.